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Our Pan Geo Global Capital Appreciation Portfolio unlevered total rate of return is 63.5% from inception on November 15, 2000 to March 6, 2010 (average annual rate of return is 5.4%). Over this time, it has outperformed its global hybrid benchmark by 63.6%.

Our Pan Geo 100% American Strength Growth Portfolio unlevered total rate of return is 99.8% from inception on July 15, 2002 to March 6, 2010 (average annual rate of return is 9.5%). Over this time, it has outperformed its hybrid benchmark by 48.0%.

      

Welcome to our Investigations page. If you seek investment advice or further information about Pan Geo Investment Inc. and its services, please click on the links below to view other pages of this website or click on Welcome to go to the beginning here.

Check the marquee banners above and refer to the Performance  Page for information about the success of our investment advisory services to date and to view the first part of our 180 country Pan Geo Investment Global Table©. This table also contains direct links to stock market exchanges of these countries, so web surfing investors and interested parties can easily visit them by clicking on the links provided. The 100 countries not currently in our Pan Geo Global Index are shown in the Table portion on our Also Eligible  Page.

Pan Geo Investment Investigations support our independent portfolio investment advisory services.  Refer to Investigations page at this website to learn about the pervasive issues involved before investing to determine how potential or actual investments may be affected by climate change, ecological risks and more.

Our current expose of what we call Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries is shown at the bottom of this webpage along with explanations of pollution problems. We also show our Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries immediately below here. Murky, Hazy Crimson Red Sunset Countries and Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries comprise the bottom two quadrants of our Eco-Flags Table©. They, in turn, are shown on Investigations2 and  Investigations3 web pages here

How does it look so far? Ever been to a ball game where you are losing 98 to 27? We don't like it either because we are in a must-win predicament. However, we still anticipate this once-dreadful situation will continue to improve steadily as time goes by. We know there is great urgency associated with solving and resolving pollution and population-pressure mega-problems. Happily, there is considerable manpower and resources planned and already at-work making contributions to solutions to this very vexing state of affairs. There appears to be more and more action "in our bullpen" every waking day which is great news. It's vital to maintain focus and a winning attitude because our side, the side for humanity and sustainability, cannot fathom losing this one.

In our opinion, as we outline in grimy detail on this very webpage, our fate will be determined by the physical survivability of people, habitat and nations collectively. Therefore, the controlling variables, the situation that should concern us all the utmost, we believe is captured by the "headlights" shown to the left in all Tables below. It forms the basis of our rank ordering in these Eco-Tables. The current headlight value shown for a jurisdiction reflects, in our judgment, the overall health and wellness of ecosystems there. Pieces of paper are not going to help us or our children if we do not maintain the delicate balance of our natural world. The Ecology Bank of Earth cannot go down-and-down or organisms including homo sapiens will be going down with it.

Eco-Flag "head-lights" to the left reflect our ecological survivability forecast for the country come 2029, 2039 and 2049. It is intended to reflect how well people who live there can cope given the state of their ecosystems. Is the natural wealth of the country being replenished or improved or is it being run down? Eco-Flag "tail-lights" are shown on the right-hand-side of our four Eco-Tables. Tail-lights include: "1900s" column lights that reflect the historical situation covering industrial times prior to 2010; "2010" column colored-boxes that reflects the current state on the ground in the country, it also encapsulates current aspirations and intentions; and "2019" column values that depend on the nature of the binding laws that are anticipated to govern legal actions in a country for the 2019 timeframe and our judgment of progress towards attainment of the ambit of the relevant legal framework. Often, despite their importance to our very existence, environmental and energy laws are slow to be updated, hence the lag of many years. Laws changed now may not have a great deal of ecological impact for many years which is worrisome. As a first approximation, the existing ecological state of a country or countries may be assumed to have arisen due to historical laws, rules and regulations.

There is a 24-color scheme in use in Tables at this website as shown in the table below. The particular color reflects the relative health, harmony and sustainability of ecosystems. The range of colors includes in order: dark blue, blue, dark green, green, light green, green-gold, yellow, cream, peanut butter brown, tan, brown, ox-blood brown, light orange, red, flat red, light pink, pink, crimson, purple, mauve, gray, charcoal gray, lead black and black. On a best efforts basis, the color of our status lights changes with time as we become aware of relevant events and information regarding a particular location. There is a great deal to achieve everywhere before anyone can reach the pinnacle here and be shrouded with our blue light of ecological freedom.  One demand we have to arrive at the blue light level is for the country to be on a path to achieve carbon neutrality, that is, to have zero net releases of carbon by the year shown in our Eco-Table.

 

OUR ECO-FLAG COLORED LIGHTS OF HOPE©
ECO-FLAGS TABLE 111 222 333 444 555 666
Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries            
Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries            
Murky, Hazy Crimson Red Sunset Countries            
Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries            

 

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PAN GEO INVESTMENT ECO-FLAGS TABLE©™  27 Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries as of March 7, 2010. First published June 23, 2008. All rights reserved
2049 2039 2029 MEMORANDA 2019 2010 1900s
     Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati, Tonga, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Federated States of Micronesia:  In general, the people of these countries live quite parsimoniously with respect to use of energy. However, the destiny of their progeny appears to be in the hands of others in faraway lands which must cause anxiety. Sadly, environmental degradation of their land and the contiguous continental shelf areas plus submersion due to global warming-induced rise of sea level is evident already. Fresh water is becoming scarcer as saltwater mixes with more and more of it.

Maldives has vast tracts of land at elevations less than two meters above sea level leaves residents here in a precarious position. Maldives has experienced depletion of freshwater aquifers as supply is utilized and saltwater incursions continue to transgress inland.

Maldives now has an ambitious plan to be carbon-neutral in about a decade, by 2020. Solar and wind power are slated to replace widespread reliance on fossil fuels. Maldives has a per-diem type green tax to levy on tourists. We think the tax is a good idea but it should have been heavily-weighted as an entry-exit tax as opposed to a daily tax to encourage longer stays and less-frequent flying in-and-out. Such a scheme would act more resolutely to reduce emissions whilst hopefully increasing gross income.

Tuvalu's goal is for a wholesale transition from dirty diesel-fuelled turbines to instead invoke solar and wind power for the entire electric grid by 2020.

Tuvalu is in big trouble due to threat of submergence of their coral atolls which have pretty meager elevation relative to current sea level, mostly less than one meter. Saltwater ingress is already degrading the land. There is no point more than five meters above sea level in either Kiribati or Tuvalu. So Kiribati is also in big danger from global rise of sea level and, as a corollary, having their lagoon latrines flushed for them by the incursion of saltwater. The authorities of Kiribati are currently looking for some kind of escape hatch for their people and we can fully understand that viewpoint.

The submergence risk meter is also reading perilously-high in the long term view for Tonga, Marshall Islands, Nauru and low elevation coral atoll islands of the Federated States of Micronesia. Due partly to their small size, its easier to lead a relatively fast changeover from dependence on fossil fuels. For example, Tonga is targeting that 50% of their energy come from renewable sources before 2013.

    
     Iceland:  Iceland is an innocuous situation since they already generate more than 80% of their energy from natural geothermal and hydropower sources. Hydrogen sulfide gas emissions associated with geothermal power production have so far been more of a nuisance in Reykjavik, and hopefully, concentrations in the atmosphere will not increase further. Only about 1% of home heat derives from fossil fuel sources but transportation is more of a challenge. Many Icelanders' have lifestyles that squander huge amounts of energy, for example, driving gas pigs and boating using marine fuel oil. Iceland's outsize aluminum industry relative to their population base pumps high levels of noxious, heat-trapping perfluorocarbons into the atmosphere. Unfortunately, once there, carbon tetrafluoride persists in the atmosphere for some 50,000 years.

So we think Icelanders still need to increase conservation and efficiency efforts. We realize the authorities have been actively-engaged for many years in transforming Iceland to be a carbon-neutral country. Their long-term outlook was to eliminate fossil fuel use completely by 2050 and to transition sooner rather than later to electric, hybrid and fuel-cell powered vehicles. Being 50% below 1990 levels of greenhouse gases by 2050 is their current officially-stated goal. 

Iceland had the first hydrogen fueling station and is pushing use of hydrogen, fuel cell and electric vehicles. It's somewhat dubious to use renewable energy-generated electric power to produce hydrogen then to convert the hydrogen back to electricity to power electric vehicles and charge batteries. Iceland is developing a significant eco-tourism industry including geyser, fish and whale watching. Some of their whale watching boats run on hydrogen.

    
     Portugal, Spain:  Portugal is green and clean and a great place to visit and tour around in although parts of the country have unsafe water. Portugal derives 40% of its power from renewable energy already and is developing wave energy sources that ultimately could account for 20% of their grid power. Floating wind turbines to be located far offshore are also in the works. Portugal could be two-thirds reliant on renewable energy sources for electricity somewhere in the 2020 to 2025 time frame. Portugal is building a national infrastructure for electric cars by 2011 including over one thousand recharging stations.

While Spain's greenhouse gas emissions increased markedly in the generation up to 2005, there has been a rather dramatic turnaround since then. Spain has been a leader in implementing both wind and solar power generation and is still the number three wind power overall but will likely drop to 4th place by some time in 2010 due to the emergence of China. However, Spain expects to reach nearly one-quarter of energy overall from renewable sources by 2020 including one-quarter of its electrical load from renewable energy before 2011. Half of the latter will come from wind installations. Spain now has at least 50 concentrated solar power projects slated to be up-and-running by 2015 making it a world leading nation in solar thermal energy production. Solar photovoltaic power is anticipated to reach grid parity with legacy fossil fuels sometime during the next year or so. Further, Spain has achieved a net gain of more than five million hectares of forest land over the past generation. This in a world where deforestation globally has reached the point of being an unmitigated ecological disaster for us all.

    
     Sweden, Norway:  Both these countries have had a carbon tax since the prior millennium which makes us wonder why so many other nations still do not have one. Scandinavian countries historically have had problems with acid rain affecting their forests, lakes and rivers to the point that terrestrial habitat has been lost and fish have disappeared. There has been significant water pollution emanating directly from industrial waste and pesticides. Air pollution has billowed into Scandinavia from external sources, in particular, from regions of northwestern Russia and also from passing ships.

Sweden currently has the edge here in the race to be green as we see it due to a modest ecological footprint relative to its advanced state of industrialization and high standard of living. Forestry is a big industry that has apparently been well-managed for sustainability. Sweden harnesses biomass energy and repurposes waste like no other place we know of. In some cities including Stockholm and Malmo, organic waste is vacuum-pumped into a network of pipelines then fermented in enormous fermentation tanks. Biogas is later siphoned off and used to fuel vehicles. Process heat is also salvaged.

Sweden has miniscule reliance on fossil fuels for electric power, less than 5% overall. Nuclear energy and hydropower each provide about half of electric generating capacity. Sweden currently has about 40% renewable energy overall and is targeting 50% by 2020. Sweden already has significant offshore wind power in place and it plans to add considerably wind capacity. They also plan to replace existing nuclear reactors with new ones. Public transit uses a lot of biogas.

Norway has clearly been a worldwide leader on the environmental front especially in slowing deforestation and forest ecosystem degradation. Norway has funded and helped several countries develop plans for a greener future and they expend effort to have same act faster which is always refreshing to hear. Some 99% of their domestic energy for electricity comes from hydro power. Norway plans on developing significant wind power mostly for export. Norwegian industry are pioneering various demonstration efforts such as wind power being used to produce hydrogen so fuel cell energy can be tapped when the wind dies. Norway has a hydrogen highway, too. People from this country are also responsible for the first mostly fuel cell-powered ship at sea.

Norway is one of the world's top five exporters of oil and gas and they continue to believe in the efficacy of underground carbon sequestration. We do not. Our position is very evident from many comments made herein at this website that the opportunity costs and environmental risks are unacceptable. Furthermore, Norway has made questionable carbon-intensive fossil fuel investments. Norway did succeed in reducing their greenhouse gas emissions by 2.2% in 2008 which is good performance. The goal of the government is to have greenhouse gas emissions below their 1990 levels by 30%, and contingently by 40%, by 2020. They also aim to have zero net carbon releases by 2030. However, these objectives rely on utilizing carbon markets to purchase carbon credits. Norway was at one point considering banning new purely-gasoline-powered automobiles starting in 2015.

    
     Bhutan: Bhutan has been a low-carbon intensity setting and is likely to stay that way. Bhutan has technically been carbon-negative forever. This means it has always had more and greater carbon sinks than carbon sources. Hydropower generates virtually all electric power and some is exported, as is timber, especially to India. Any plan to expand damming or even run-of-river micro hydropower may be stymied by changing weather patterns, melting in the Himalayas, the incidence of glacial lakes, threat of outbursts and follow-on loss of hydro-capacity.

Deforestation, sub-optimal forest practices and excessive soil erosion has had a negative impact which still has to be rectified and managed carefully. But we remain hopeful this country will be an oasis of conservation and ecological prudence, a shining example for other Asian nations to aspire to. About three-quarters of the country remains covered with forest. Ecotourism is likely to fuel their economy in the years ahead.

    
     Bolivia, Uruguay, Paraguay: These relatively-small Latin American countries fire their electric power almost entirely from hydroelectricity except for Bolivia, which is only about-half hydropower sources and half from fossil fuels. Their economies have not developed very fast which can be a blessing in disguise due to fewer environmental impacts. Small-scale and subsistence agriculture remains the backbone for their economies. There is also basic manufacturing and natural resource industries.

Paraguay exports huge amounts of electric power. Paraguay has imposed a moratorium to slow its rapid rate of deforestation. The vast majority of illegal logging has already been curtailed. We are less enamored with Bolivia due mostly to our skepticism and uncertainty regarding their state economic development plans in the Amazon Basin and elsewhere. But, for now, their environmental record appears to be good enough with respect to the ability of Bolivia's natural areas to remain vital despite various human activities. However, we wonder and worry that as the government gets increasingly involved mucking around in more and more segments, gray days are very possibly in the future for Bolivia. Better to let private enterprises operate and have regulators, government and police monitor and ride herd on them to ensure they perform and do not unduly degrade the environment in the course of doing business there. For example, in the development of lithium carbonate resources, processing of it could potentially lead to unacceptable emissions of noxious chemicals like sulphur dioxide. Bolivia also has significant untapped gas reserves. These reserves may be needed because the outlook for hydropower is not so rosey. Bolivia already has big water scarcity problems arising from disappearance of more than three-quarters of key glaciers. Vast glaciers and snowpack areas in existence since before the last Ice Age over 10,000 years ago have melted away including the well-known Chacaltaya glacier.

    
     Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Palau, Seychelles, Comoros: These four Pacific Ocean and two Indian Ocean island chain countries have slow-moving, subsistence economies that have very low carbon carbon economies and lifestyles. In varying degrees, they have become accustomed to the extra wealth that tourists bring. Of course, we know flying many people to and fro for short visits is not environmentally friendly. However, their basic services, agricultural activities and natural resource-based industries have allowed them a fairly high standard of living given the topping up provided by a regular influx of visitors and development assistance from external sources. Their relative isolation in the world has by default given rise to a situation where they have not for whatever set of reasons undertaken intense economic development. They can vastly improve their green eco-touring profiles by adjusting service offerings to encourage people to stay longer, use more fuel-efficient means of transportation, reduce the need for air conditioners, etc. 

Nevertheless, its not all kisses and roses in these places either. For example, in Fiji, the Qawa and Labwa rivers need to be cleaned up and industry straightened-out about exactly what they put into those rivers. They must realize people eat the fish and drink the water from there so why pollute it so much? Historically, Fiji has allowed very-high-sulphur-diesel fuel grades to be burned. They should reduce sulphur levels allowed in the atmosphere to far below the current 500 parts per million.

Samoa is almost half-ways off fossil fuel use to generate electric power. However, there is precious little wind, solar, wave, tidal or geothermal energy capture yet. In Seychelles, half the land area is protected as they have been environmentally friendly for a long time already. They plan to keep developers from being overzealous. Rightfully, increased domestic food production should be a higher priority than having more tourist spots. Unfortunately, saltwater incursion into many coastal agricultural areas is already very significant as is erosion of beaches due to rising sea level. The outlook is ugly for important swathes of Seychelles if vertical encroachment by the ocean exceeds about 1.5 meters. Coral reefs have also been suffering under the blaze of extra heat and acidity.  Comoros can improve its balance of payments and get off current heavy reliance on fossil fuels for power by developing geothermal energy from volcanoes.

    
     Dem. Rep. of Congo, Rep. of Congo, Gabon, Guyana, Suriname: We believe the development paths to date of these five countries are very worthy of encouragement, patronage and support from all of us. We are big believers in environmental levies on the perpetrators of pollution. If we want the cost efficiencies associated with marketplace dynamics, our politicians have to have the backbone to stand up to one and all to let them know there is no other way than adopting cost accounting and financial analysis that includes external environmental costs. Otherwise, decision making will not be based on full cost accounting and the invisible hand of markets will not operate as intended. So, while we are pushing the GET as described later on this webpage, we are for anything that can help solve environmental problems before they become unmanageable. In principle, we support efforts in these areas of the world to pay for, and invest in, protection and conservation of nature. We need to preserve those rainforests. The Democratic Republic of Congo has been losing forest at the rate of about 10 million hectares per generation and this cannot go on.

Its entirely  possible for countries such as these to skip facets of their smokestack economic development and proceed directly to green chemistry, clean technologies, low-carbon power and eco-tourism. People are already working on advancing carbon trading type solutions for these places. Preservation of rainforests and biological diversity is critically important in each of these countries. Happily, so far ecosystems are largely intact and the population has not been overwhelming mother nature. In Africa, this is especially so in Gabon.

Hydropower is well-developed so use of fossil fuels is relatively modest. Most people live in a limited number of large metropolitan urban areas such as Libreville, Gabon and Pointe Noire and Brazzaville, Republic of Congo. Pointe Noire and Brazzaville have choking air pollution from old vehicles and inefficient industries. Also, the water there is mostly undrinkable and dysentery remains a major cause of illness and untimely death. There has been entrenched fighting and dislocation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo which creates the conditions for localized pollution and deforestation from illegal or careless harvesting of natural resources. But it appears these activities have so far caused relatively modest environmental impacts relative to the vast ecological carrying capacity.

Guyana is another country where very promising conservation activity is expected to occur in a significant way. Guyanese are cooperating with other countries such as Norway to pioneer schemes to reduce deforestation and forest degradation in their country. The capital, Georgetown is vulnerable to rising sea level. Suriname has significant tropical rainforest and biodiversity that, for the most part, remains in tact. They rely on hydropower for three-quarters of their electricity production.

    

        

Comment on Green Earth Memoranda and Solution ("GEMS")

November 30, 2008 -  Pan Geo Investment Inc. is offering our Green Earth Memoranda and Solution ("GEMS") in the form of an executive summary report. The Memoranda covers what is presented on this webpage, however, the Solution briefing is revealed only in the report. It is based on our methodology, justification and thinking further to the conduct of this investigation. We charge $850 US dollars per copy, seat or license. We believe we have something valuable to say about a formulation or solution, certainly at this juncture of the proceedings if not later on. Another exciting aspect about all this for us is the way we are going about marketing GEMS. Its being done through this website. In particular, connect to the OrderAdvice  Page or send your request for GEMS to the address in Vancouver, BC, Canada specified below. We are using "Green Agents" to reach virally many possible interested parties to purchase GEMS. We do not want to throw up lots of rules and restrictions about this. Any person who can legally approach an entity to sell our GEMS only needs to convince the latter to buy. For a Green Agent sale, have the buyer forward their name, organization and shipping address together with the full name, complete mailing address and hopefully a contact phone number and/or e-mail address of the Green Agent. The Green Agent must be at arms length from the buyer. If it is an agent sale, once the order is paid for and filled, we will forward our firm cheque for $200 of commission income to the Green Agent identified by the purchaser. This is our way of contributing to the green job movement. Hopefully, also, it may help some rather-disadvantaged people who happen to hear about this opportunity to participate and in so doing boost their own income and prospects. Thinking about hearing an outcome like that is doing our hearts a lot of good. So, if you're a go-getter sister, then we're gonna getcha some green bills for you and your family. Not only are we going to send $200 for every sale marketed successfully by a Green Agent, we're going to segregate $100 more of every $850 GEMS sold into our Yellow-Lit Mud Hut Fund (see the bottom of Also Eligible Page about this Fund).  Mailing Address: Pan Geo Investment Inc., 688, Unit 4 - 350 S.E. Marine Drive, Vancouver, B.C. V5X 2S5  Canada

 

Comments On Carbon Separation, Capture and Sequestration

January 26, 2008 - If Alberta were a country not a province of Canada, it would be the nation with the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions on Earth. By far. The vast majority of countries are now hot on the trail of having to do something dramatic to curb pollution and prevent climate change from becoming worse than it already is. But not Alberta. Their current environmental plan is for no reduction, rather a sharp increase to 2020 as heavy oil output triples and more than $100 billion of new tar sands developments are contemplated. At that point, the Alberta government is claiming it will be feasible to capture and store carbon dioxide emissions underground in "caverns" using technology that now exists. We beg to differ. We are aware that governments in US, UK, EU, China, Canada, Norway, Australia, UAE and other countries are investigating the viability of carbon separation, capture and sequestration (storage) below ground. However, as registered Investment Advisor for 8 years and practicing geophysical engineer and geoscientist for several years before that, we advise that in our opinion this particular slate of technologies is in the borderline geo-fantasy stage. There is no evidence on any commercial scale anywhere whether its in the interstices of sandstone, shale, basalt, in salt formations or anywhere else that carbon dioxide can be stored reliably subsurface. Of course, many heavy oil sands projects in northern Alberta were initially approved without consideration of the environmental externality costs of the vast quantities of pollutants being thrown off by their projects. That's now their problem and we do not feel sorry for them and we do not want them to try to pass us the bill for their mistakes.

We further reject the idea that vast volumes of carbon dioxide greenhouse gases from the tar sands can be separated, piped and utilized in carbon dioxide flooding reservoir stimulation to enhance production in old oil and gas fields. First of all, just separating and capturing carbon dioxide is a very costly, energy intensive process unto itself. Then you have to pipe it to points all over the map sheet so it can be used. If carbon dioxide flooding is appropriate at all for a particular reservoir the amounts you would be injecting would be many orders of magnitude less than what's available from the tar sands. If you try to force an excess amount of CO2 into a gas reservoir for example, the carbon dioxide content of the gas should stay below a maximum of about 2%. Otherwise, the gas does not burn cleanly or efficiently. So you would just be passing off a big gas processing problem to the refinery if say you loaded the gas with up to 10% carbon dioxide in an attempt to get rid of more CO2. They have not solved the environmental challenge at all, they have just shifted the culpability to another point along the waste stream associated with heavy oil production. The carbon still ends up in the atmosphere.

Another alternative, mass storage of carbon dioxide gas underground via injection wells, shut-in wells, newly-drilled wells, whatever, is hugely expensive and again energy intensive. And there is absolutely no guarantee that, for example, the gas once forced under pressure into some pinpoint porosity sandstone formation 1000 meters below the surface would stay there indefinitely without any leakage, leaching, disruption from other borehole drilling nearby, seismic rumbling, faulting, gravitational creep and so on. And this storage procedure would have to be played out innumerable times in various locations to have any hope of accommodating the gargantuan quantity of greenhouse gases emanating from the tar sands. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant? Try telling that to survivors of the incident where hundreds of people were fatally-gassed while living quietly on a hillside village in Africa when suddenly an enormous cloud of carbon dioxide descended over them. This was reported to be the result of a catastrophic leakage of carbon dioxide along zones of weakness and crevices in the bedrock nearby.

In our judgment, the entire scheme is a pipe dream, a real long shot and we will not be investing a wooden nickel in any entity that's connected with carbon separation, capture and sequestration. Which brings us to our next point. The very fact that governments far and wide are picking up huge shares of the tab on behalf of sunset industries such as coal mining, coal-fired power and heavy oil sands developers in order to try to develop these fledgling technologies indicates to us that those sunset industry players already realize much of what we are saying here - that carbon capture and sequestration is a loser, is fraught with risk, is nowhere near being either economically or technically feasible and is swallowing huge sums of taxpayers money that if anything should be dedicated to development of alternative, cleaner forms of energy. Forms of energy where the proponents of it do not mind paying their own externality costs as opposed to the public having to pay it for outdated energy producers to prop them up. The coal-burning Holocene epoch is over, the Anthropocene has begun. 

June 8, 2008 Many countries have been "gambling" on carbon storage, capture and underground sequestration ("CSCS"), a gamble they are already losing given the level of emissions still building up in those jurisdictions. And, in our judgment, the worst is yet to come if they continue on that path. We continue to be puzzled by why so many jurisdictions are planning on something as if its bound to occur. CSCS is portrayed by fossil fuel executives as if its an odds-on favorite for solving the energy security dilemma when in fact the technology is currently somewhere in the range of being a longshot to being a rank longshot for reasons such as that which we have outlined on this webpage. To attempt to re-emphasize the dilemma we offer the following widely-recognized analogue from the oilpatch: A so-called "technical success" occurs in oil and gas exploration and development when a structural hydrocarbon trap is correctly predicted, however when drilled, its a dry hole anyways. Why? Any geochemist will tell you its because hydrocarbon source rock, where the crude oil is originally cooked under heat and pressure, is generally quite far away from the alleged reservoir rock drilling target. This means the hydrocarbons seeped or migrated through the subsurface in a fashion that was not well-understood or subsequently seeped out of the potential reservoir due to diagenesis, degradation and/or disruption of the impermeable caprock that then failed to seal and retain the hydrocarbons in place. Either way, the hydrocarbons are gone, there has been a "catastrophic leakage". In connection with various oil and gas prospects most sizeable oil companies are drilling, tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars are expended every year finding out the hard way that the fluids or gas sought have escaped. This realization is especially painful and wasteful in connection with very expensive offshore drilling in deeper water. Similar geologic uncertainty and risk is associated with underground carbon sequestration. As such, we believe gullible and captive government administrators are being dug in deeper by the coal lobby. Our view is that pursuing underground carbon storage is not decision-making based on evidence or informed scientific opinion nor on timelines the world faces to complete a wholesale clean up of polluting activities. You can hardly develop policy with the premise that CSCS "has" to work. To us, CSCS is an amazing "sell" given the lion's share of the coal industry are not willing to pay the entirety of their own CSCS gamble including very significant insurance costs of the environmental risks associated with that "clean coal" technology gamble. Joe Blow on Main Street surely does not want to pay for the CSCS gamble either, nor the insurance claim. Once you are over that hump, and you run up against all the possible political fall-out associated with public policy failure in this area, about the only conclusion that remains is there is no realistic way to bail out the entire pollution-ridden coal industry. Rather, you have to penalize them for the pollution they are responsible for and channel any public funds earmarked in the name of energy security to other forms of energy that are clean, justifiable and have a future.

Refer to our Know Your Advisor section on Know Your Client  page for other commentaries. 

           

PAN GEO INVESTMENT ECO-FLAGS TABLE©  68 Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries as of March 7, 2010. First published December 9, 2007. All rights reserved.
2049 2039 2029 MEMORANDA 2019 2010 1900s
     Mauritius, Solomon Islands, Barbados, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Grenada, Dominica:  Submergence risk is less here than many other island states due to the existence of significant highland areas. Various chemical runoff and the extra heating and acidity of marine water has resulted in deterioration of coastal ecosystems. The acidity of surface ocean water generally has increased by about one-third since pre-industrial times. Coral reefs have been bleached or are inflicted with disease to the point where not much of it has vitality today. Worldwide, coral reefs are being lost at the rate of about 2% per year. Beyond 2050, there is currently very little hope for their survival. With the loss of reefs goes about half of fish species that lived in that reef ecosystem.

Mauritius and Solomon Islands have many degraded coral reefs or ones that have already met their demise. Solar water heating is widespread in Barbados already. St. Kitts and Nevis have plans to construct partially-collapsible wind farms that can withstand hurricanes. Wind energy is to power 40% of their electrical grid. This should dramatically-cut overall use of dirty diesel fuel. St. Vincent and the Grenadines has hydropower for about one-third of electricity generation but more can be done to lessen fossil fuel dependence. St. Lucia and Grenada should stop listening to eco-risk-taking fossil fuel madcaps pushing high-carbon, syrupy stuff like charcoal, oil, etc. Instead, start banana briquette businesses to help fuel your own economic future and reduce emissions, too! Then trumpet what you did to the world because we think tourists will adore you for it.

Dominica is very vulnerable to flash floods and hurricanes. However, they do have significant highland areas where people can put into effect a minimalist solution to storm surges by seeking refuge there if need be. Nevertheless, some of its islands are expected to disappear some time this century in the wake of the anticipated rise of global sea level.

    
    

Guatemala, Costa Rica, Belize, Panama, Dominican Republic: These settings are generally vulnerable to extreme weather events. Historically there has been excessive deforestation and erosion in Central America arising from stripping, clearing, hacking, slashing, burning, plundering and/or mismanagement of natural resources and protective ecosystems. Happily, these countries have placed significant areas under protection, more than one-quarter the total land area. Conservation area in Guatemala and Costa Rica is about one-third and Belize nearly half. These measures hopefully will instill in the general population an ethic of conservation and living within the bounds imposed by the natural world.

Belize, Costa Rica and Panama have challenges resulting from more rapid development and tourism. Then there is the Panama Canal and all the sulfate aerosols associated with ship traffic burning bunker fuel. Belize and Costa Rica at least have some coral reefs that are not that badly degraded yet.

San Jose has serious air pollution including ozone, particulates and even the potential neurotoxin, manganese. We think the key to cutting greenhouse gas emissions here is to motivate Costa Ricans to use bicycles, hybrid electric bikes, mass transportation and fuel efficient vehicles. We understand Costa Ricans have grandiose plans to become carbon-neutral by 2021. To help become a zero net emitter of carbon, they have a scheme for a solar-powered mass transit system. Hydropower accounts for some 80% of electricity generation and further development of geothermal energy from hot volcanic sources is planned. 

Costa Rica has been something of a pioneer in recognizing the monetary value of ecosystem services. For a relatively small country, there are lots of tourists jetting in and out which is problematic for emissions totals attributable to Costa Rica. Costa Ricans do have mechanisms for incoming tourists to reduce their guilt by paying for preservation of their rainforests about $5 per ton of estimated carbon emissions generated from travelling. Eerily, their entire east coast appears to be eaten away by the Caribbean Sea; the coastline is as smooth and regular as the crescent of our Moon.

We recognize that people in Costa Rica plant millions of plants, shrubs and trees every year and incentivize protection of forests. About one-quarter of the country is protected as national parks. Biodiversity of species is well-preserved. However, they still need to dissuade many poachers and encroachers. Overly rapid real estate and plantation development in Costa Rica is said to have created conditions that led to elimination of about one half the monkeys in the country. Widespread application of agricultural chemicals also needs to be curtailed.

Pollution in the major Yague River of Dominican Republic has reached gross levels. Its been used somewhat like an open sewer. Dominican Republic may be representative of countries where coral reefs are deteriorating rapidly in the Caribbean. Along with that goes the vitality of every industry that depends on the reef ecosystem such as the commercial fishery, beachfront retail and real estate and tourism generally. Agricultural productivity could be impaired up to 25% according to one local source. Of course, coral reefs are like mangrove swamps in providing a natural barrier to protect the coast from the full brunt of tidal surges or the storm surges and gale force winds associated with hurricanes. Dominican Republic is also prone to cross-border raids from Haiti by people trying to stay afloat economically by cutting down trees to produce charcoal.

    
     France: France may be implementing a demand-side carbon tax soon which is good news especially if it spreads further to cover commercial interests, in particular, polluters wherever they lurk who have been free-riders historically. The supply side is the source of more concentrated and larger gross releases of pollutants. As such, we need to alter their behavior, decisions and penchant for adopting new, clean technologies which tends to not go-green fast enough. France also has feed-in tariffs to promote the supply and use of renewable energy.

France is a significant market for both wind and solar power now, too. At this juncture, we do not know how to fully-assess their reliance on nuclear energy. In France, nuclear plants account for about 80% of contributions to the power grid, hydropower for about 15%. Certainly, the nuclear waste problem has not gone away nor have the particular risks associated with nuclear power plants, fuel processing, reprocessing and enrichment, use of prodigious amounts of coolants and the potential for contamination and radiation.

    
     Japan: Japan produces little fossil fuels and places a hearty tax on use of fossil fuel even though they remain approximately 60% dependent on fossil fuels for electric power. They still import lots of horrible coal.

There is uncertainty concerning how to appraise Japan's leaning towards further development of nuclear energy. Fourth generation nuclear technology and small reactors may well be part of the solution. Their intermediate-term plans seem to push nuclear energy to about 40% of all electricity generation by 2017.

Being situated along the Pacific Rim of Fire, Japan has more than 100 active volcanoes. Belatedly, various Japanese entities are beginning to become serious about developing Japan's geothermal power sources. Japan needs to ramp up utilization of renewable energy beyond 15% by 2019. Japan currently generates about 10% of its electricity needs from renewable sources and relies on nuclear power for about 30% of total electrical output. It now has a solar energy feed-in tariff scheme to promote small-scale returns of power to the electrical grid. We understand Japan is aiming to have some 30 gigawatts of solar power in operation by 2020.

No diesel-burning vehicles are allowed in Tokyo, period. Of course, Japan is known around the world for its pioneering hybrid gas-electric and fuel cell automobiles. There already are some hydrogen highways in Japan so fuel cell cars are on the road there. We also have millions of e-bikes on the streets of Japan. We very much look forward to seeing eco-rigs off Japan's coast! Further, it is anticipated that by 2049 one-quarter of residences will obtain their electric power and heat from a fuel cell on-site.

Japan has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% versus 1990 levels by 2020 and about 70% by 2050. According to the government, emissions fell by about 6% during the fiscal year ending March 31, 2009. We would like to see an ambitious, firm 10 year objective enshrined in law especially since greenhouse gas emissions have been going up in Japan not down. We hope and trust that new, strengthened pledges and commitments reflecting the rising eco-dynamism that has come to the forefront in Japanese society, will be codified into law. An environment tax is welcome. We also like how Japan are quantifying industrial pollution targets for various sectors but we need teeth in implementation. Merely relying on corporate volunteering to solve global climate change is woefully inadequate and apt to end badly if pursued as policy.

    
    

Belgium, Finland, Monaco, Andorra: The situation here has similarities to France due to outsize reliance on nuclear power. In Belgium, they are driven some 60% by nuclear energy. In Finland, about one-fifth of electric power comes from hydro sources and about 40% from fossil fuels. One-third of power comes from nuclear plants. Finland was among the very first countries to impose a carbon tax on transportation fuels. It also has ones affecting use of electricity and space heating. Degradation of peat lands has been extensive for a country this size resulting in excessive greenhouse gas emissions per capita. Monaco imports its electricity from France and Andorra from France and Spain so we also include them here. We acknowledge their claim of being on a path to become carbon-neutral one day. But merely being 60% below their 1990 levels of greenhouse gases by 2050 isn't necessarily going to get them there before then, now is it? As nuclear technology improves, there exists the possibility of reusing nuclear fuel and waste such that the amount of nuclear waste material that ultimately remains as a byproduct of nuclear power generation decreases markedly and becomes less hazardous to handle, store, dispose of and reintegrate into the Earth's environment.

    
     Germany: In the industries they have Germany is among the most technologically-advanced, energy efficient and economically successful countries on Earth. Germany has cut greenhouse gas emissions by about 30% since 1990. They are aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by some 40% versus the 1990 amount, all before 2020. This target hopefully means grid-power will no longer be driven more than half by fossil fuels including coal. 

Germany has seen a tremendous contribution from rooftop solar installations. Germany is currently ranked second worldwide in installed wind power capacity and should finish 2009 in second place in solar energy use after the US. Solar photovoltaic panels are expected to provide nearly 10% of the country's electricity generation capacity by 2020. Along with wind and hydropower, Germany has developed renewable energy sources for about one-sixth of its needs already. They are aiming to boost that percentage appreciably to 30% by 2030 and to 95% by 2050 which is very commendable and hopeful for the future. Some say Germany could turn the last page on fossil fuel use in Germany by 2050 as they seek to eliminate any additional carbon dioxide, and perhaps other heat-trapping gases too, from entering the atmosphere. We hope they can inspire others to follow their lead. However, erecting vast offshore wind generation capacity in the Baltic and North seas as planned in just a few years time will be a big challenge.

However, we wonder what's going on in places like Grevenbroich and throughout the Rhine Valley for that matter? We are not really going to construct more coal-fired power stations are we? Coal still drives almost half of electricity generating capacity which is unacceptable. We think the days of pollution freebies are over, so Germany, the EU or any other jurisdiction should not encourage building of any new coal plants nor the hand-out of free carbon emissions permits to utilities or anyone else. The idea to mix coal with plant biomass is at best a stop-gap measure. The main problem that should be monitored is Germany remains too reliant on dirty brown lignite for power which must be ratcheted back or eliminated. There has been a move to greater use of bituminous coal rather than brown coal. Even though Germany is still in-line with its Kyoto commitments, hideous amounts of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide belch from coal-burning power stations. The plan apparently in the EU generally is for this unsavory situation to continue until at least 2020. Its very conceivable Germany could be downgraded by us as they test our confidence limit with an ongoing commitment to coal especially in light of the fact Germany is historically the third highest per capita generator of climate warming pollution. We use tubas to trumpet an emphatic no to the idea of approving "capture ready" coal-fired power plants.

    
     United Kingdom: UK has a bold plan for energy and the environment in a world where many more such bold plans are still needed. Execution to plan will be challenging. For example, there have been questions about the capacity and suitability of the existing power grid to handle various new connections to it from various renewable sources of energy. We believe its very possible that demand for energy in UK will level off and decline before 2020 and goals envisaged may well be reached. As this unfolds, the quality of air, water, soil and life in general improves steadily. An ecological turnaround occurs in UK. Happiness blossoms where before there was a mix of carping, complaining and dire warnings about loss of biodiversity, swamps, trees, shrubs, plants, soil and water bodies. We can only hope the prospect of this result in Great Britain causes other countries to forge ahead with their own version of how to contribute to rescuing the planet by orchestrating an ambitious energy and environmental rehabilitation in their own country.

UK has been committing to development of significantly more coal which we heartily dislike. Scotland may have 10% of Europe's coal "reserves" but they also may have more than 10% of Europe's coal-related environmental liabilities. Coal executives anywhere should be willing to post a bond sufficient to cover the full cost, including monitoring, of environmental and health liabilities potentially associated with any carbon dioxide burial scheme, prior to undertaking a "clean coal" project. Those same parties typically downplay or misrepresent the environmental risks associated with their proposed projects but, in a peculiar twist of bravado, are unwilling to pony up the cost of the potential calamity. The extra cost to get to the contingent-burial stage are of the order of $75 to $150 per tonne of CO2 depending on many variables that may well push the total far higher into the $200 to $300 per tonne range. Currently, the best single-valued estimate may be about $125 per tonne. This amount is many times the current trading range in Europe for carbon dioxide emissions. That makes us wonder why they persist with their endeavors at all in rearguard actions to try to forestall the demise of a moribund industry segment. However, if the UK can design and implement a carbon tax whose magnitude adjusts according to the market price of carbon to effectively create a minimum price below which carbon cannot trade, then we are getting somewhere. We see great potential there because you build in a whip-hand-ride type of mechanism to reduce any tendency towards gaming in carbon markets. You thereby "force the tempo of play" with a serious carbon price to accelerate transitioning away from fossil fuels, and you achieve that at least semi-automatically via markets which makes it harder for commercial interests to grouse.

UK currently relies on fossil fuels to drive about three-quarters of their electrical grid. The advent of electric cars in Britain, to the extent it occurs, won't move the needle back on climate change much so long as we have something like that going on. Renewable energy sources in UK are being developed historically from a very low 2% to 3% percentage level of total electric power production and energy use. They are targeting renewable energy, especially from offshore wind power, to provide 20% of demand by 2020 including driving about one-third of all electricity generation capacity. Nuclear plants are likely to provide a little under 10% of grid power by 2020. The people of UK seem to understand the jam we are in collectively concerning our environment and the future of the Earth better than populations as-a-whole just about anywhere else. Many citizens of UK have been participating in a voluntary grassroots "10:10" campaign to reduce their own carbon emissions by 10% by 2010. They also have foisted energy efficiency improvements and conservation efforts into the purview of commercial interests to get them competing with others in a kind of green race where the losers must pay up to compensate society for their relative largesse. We like this game; we wish there was a global version of it to invigorate people and get them moving and thinking about things at large not just focusing on what's happening in their own little world. We think its very true what the UN says about us getting beyond self-interest or even national interest.

UK has been meeting its commitments under the Kyoto Protocol and its greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2% in 2008 and, at that juncture, were 20% below their 1990 levels. Scotland is expected before 2012 to have about one-third of electricity generation come from renewable sources, especially wind turbines and hydropower. UK is the first country to legally commit to an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 levels, including their fair share of emissions arising from flying and shipping in and out of UK. Furthermore, they now have their own legal and budgetary obligation to slice carbon emissions by at least one third relative to 1990 levels before 2020. UK has already surpassed Denmark in offshore wind power to be world leader in that category. And UK has plans for much more of it in coming years, for example, in the North Sea. Also, significant wave, tidal and biomass power projects are in the works. Microgeneration of heat and electricity near or within the locality of use should be another big positive development.

Britain still consumes too many goods and resources and through time is said to be the most profligate generator of greenhouse gas emissions on a per person basis. Water quality in almost one-quarter of waterways are said to be substandard. Any recourse to dirty fuels including petrochemical-based diesel will certainly have negative consequences for the environment and their ability to reach stated climate-altering emissions-reduction goals. UK still has a problem limiting the concentration of nitrogen dioxide, particulates including very fine-grained ones, and other pollutants, too to safe thresholds in the air of many cities including London, Glasgow, Birmingham, Sheffield and Manchester. Furthermore, if old buildings containing foam insulation are demolished haphazardly, large quantities of ozone-depleting, heat-trapping gases may be released into the atmosphere, thereby adding to greenhouse gas emission totals.

UK has definitive plans for systematically increasing the energy efficiency of homes, buildings and transportation. Another one billion pounds sterling is being invested to get locomotives off dirty diesel fuel and onto drawing electric power to propel trains. The advent of green chemistry in a big way is another vital challenge facing us all and it must be met in an abbreviated time frame in UK as well. This should encompass physical and organic chemistry processes and production of pharmaceuticals.

A study done for the UK government shows how rising temperatures and sea levels are likely to affect Britain in the long term. The outlook is not pleasant. As average summer temperatures rise at the phenomenal rate of nearly one degree Celsius per decade, huge swathes of London, Norfolk, Sheffield, Lincolnshire, Gloucestershire, Suffolk and other places, too face risk of inundation and erosion.

    
    

Nepal: The poor people of Nepal may now keep one eye on the food bowl, the other on swollen glacial lakes at risk of bursting in the Himalayas or plateau areas somewhere upstream. There already exists more than 200 overloaded glacial lakes that could be disrupted by water pressure causing potentially-disastrous flooding. Kathmandu is in a particularly precarious mountainous setting. Scientists have already issued warnings concerning the non-trivial risk of Kathmandu being inundated.

Subsistence agriculture occupies most people and hydropower generates virtually all electric power. There still exists asphyxiating levels of smoke, soot, dust and other aerosols and pollutants from forest fires, agricultural burning, industrial emissions and civic waste-streams from transport, cooking, burning refuse and combustion of fuels cut with kerosene. Concentrations of suspended particulates in Nepal's congested areas, in particular Kathmandu, soar far beyond acceptable levels.

    
     Latvia, Lithuania:  Emissions from deforestation and land use changes have been too high on a per capita basis. Historically, these two countries have relied mostly on hydropower and nuclear energy sources, respectively. As such, they have not generated outsize amounts of carbon. However, development of renewable energy sources remains "in the starting gate"or is far back. Latvia derives nearly three-quarters of its electricity from hydropower, the rest is driven by fossil fuels. Going forward, so far it appears Lithuania expects to rely significantly on natural gas.     
    

Albania, Montenegro: Here is another situation, all else being equal, where lagging behind in economic development of the smokestack variety works in favor of transitioning to a green, clean future. Fewer status quo old economy types to get in the way of change. Both countries have relied on hydropower for the lion's share of electricity production. Albania has suffered from energy shortages. Recently, they have fired up a new thermal facility which compromises their environmental picture somewhat. Montenegro has relatively high per capita energy use due to its dominant aluminum industry. However, they have significant green ecotourism potential and their environmental problems have remained quite benign.

    
    

Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe: Angola and Equatorial Guinea are new oil powers that have historically depended on natural resources like minerals and timber to drive their economies. Development of significant liquefied natural gas facilities is also possible. There has been much conflict and corruption in the past but they have much more money now than ever before. So they are now in the enviable position of having the means to enable them to get into position to prevail in the endless struggle to prevent potential catastrophic and incremental degradation of the natural environment. Compared to many countries, it appears within their grasp to solve many infrastructure, wanton pollution and socioeconomic issues such as better education, equal opportunity and more equitable income distribution. For example, there should not be cholera outbreaks that recur again and again, or that are not remediated even though the threat of flooding episodes may be always with them especially in precariously-situated places such as Luanda. It should be high priority for most people to have access to toilets and potable water. Deforestation should be contained, rolled back and reforestation commenced. Watch closely what resource extracting companies are doing. Make laws, rules and regulations such that it is not more feasible for any entity or person to pollute than to prevent or treat the waste streams they generate. If it is impossible to stop environmental degradation of some kind, make them pay for that externality they are responsible for in their profiteering. Therefore, the full cost of addressing the problem can be bankrolled and attended to later perhaps when a new environmental or health facility, technology or power source is funded and put in place.

Sao Tome and Principe has had few resources but the possibility of sudden change for the better is very real due to its position in Gulf of Guinea vis-a-vis offshore oil prospects. Assuming they are not manhandled by the rough and tumble oil business, they have a chance to develop nicely similar to Angola and Equatorial Guinea but lagging them in time.

    
    

Italy, Netherlands, Denmark: In Italy, wind power capacity rose by nearly one-third during 2009 year-over-year. Solar energy capacity in Italy during 2008 ramped-up faster than virtually every other country spurred on by government subsidies that encourage solar power. Italy is now considered to be a prime candidate in the short run, by about 2013, to have solar power reach grid parity with fossil fuels including gas which is now widely used for electric power generation. This will include both photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal energy. Italy has had a modicum of geothermal power for a long time. They are also developing significant wind and biomass sources of renewable energy.

All these promising initiatives should speed the decline not expansion of carbon-intensive fuels. Italy's one-time plan to increase coal reliance to about one-third of the country's needs is a non-starter. There have been serious garbage processing problems in southern Italy emanating from both domestic and foreign sources of waste. Milan is reputed to be the most polluted city in Europe; deadly micrometer-sized particulate matter has escalated to concentrations that are very high by EU standards.

Netherlands obviously still has to eliminate every vestige of fossil fuel subsidy. Per capita greenhouse gas emissions levels have been among the worst. However, Netherlands now has a plan to go from less than 5% renewable sources of energy to 20% by 2020, including the powering of about one-third of the electric grid by then. Both wind and solar energy utilization is moving up and up. The country's land area is about one-quarter below sea level already affecting most of the population so its likely citizens including those who live in the vulnerable port city of Rotterdam will force "greening". Netherlands is implementing a far-reaching road tax in 2012. We think its brilliant. Taking such aggressive action to contain climate change cannot happen too soon because we're sure this country does not want to continue paying hundreds of millions of Euros to reclaim tiny strips of shore area from the encroaching sea for an unknown length of time. The emphasis worldwide should be on far-reaching mitigation efforts, not blowing too many resources on dubious adaptation measures when we have not solved the cause of the problem yet.

In Denmark, carbon dioxide emissions declined by 6.2% during 2007 and greenhouse gases in aggregate were lessened by about 8% during 2008 which is promising. Copenhagen is aiming to be carbon neutral by 2025. Denmark's ongoing use of fossil fuels remains high on a per capita basis, however. Fossil fuels still account for about three-quarters of power generation requirements including nearly a 50% contribution from old-man coal. Their per person ecological footprint overall has been fairly ravenous so they have been responsible for generating a high level of pollutants. We hope Denmark does not elect to re-fire anymore with coal as a fuel. The consequences are we have yet-another high-carbon setting and further stressors are placed on their limited ecological carrying capacity. Implementation of a carbon tax should help to further address environmental cacophony.

Denmark has been a pioneer in offshore wind development and production of wind turbines, gearboxes, wind towers and blades. Wind power contributes almost one quarter of their electric power already which puts them on a path to reaching as much as one-third of energy use from renewable sources by 2020. There are also a myriad of mini-sized wind turbines that power at modest capacities for homes and businesses. Beyond that, they rely almost entirely on fossil fuels as a source of energy.

Across Greenland, impacts on the landscape that have occurred already as a consequence of global warming-induced melting of ice, calving of glaciers and thawing of permafrost have been nothing short of astounding. Just listening to the cascade of melt-water and thunder of ice collapsing ought to be enough to shake the confidence of even the most die-hard fossil fuel investor.

    
    

Switzerland, Austria, Liechtenstein: Switzerland and Austria have predominant service sectors that generate relatively few pollutants. As such, their energy use per unit of output is comparable to that of Germany. Approximately two-thirds of electric power derives from hydro sources in both these countries. Reliance on hydropower is apt to decrease as glacier melt water volume decreases over time with climate change. It is not clear to what extent increased rainfall and catchment could make up for the shortfall in hydraulic force attributable to dwindling glacier-fed waterways. Snowpack has also been trending down. The negative impact on winter tourism revenue is apt to be substantial over time. Switzerland's per capita carbon footprint remains too luxurious and reducing same by 20% below 1990 levels by 2020 is inadequate. Ditto for Liechtenstein, though we understand they may up this goal to 30% depending on what others do. Transportation and space heating emissions are too high in these localities. Perhaps there are too many log fireplaces burning. Austria still has too many coal and oil-fuelled power plants and industrial complexes. There are an overabundance of piggish trucks on the roads heading to this or that country in Europe. We do think Austrians have the mindset to become very eco-conscious. Renewable energy including significant hydropower should account for about one third of total energy by about 2020. We anticipate they will further reduce conspicuous consumption, the demands on their country's ecosystems, and cut back on waste being generated. Liechtenstein is a story similar to Austria and Switzerland and their emissions have been heading down. Having per capita vehicle ownership second highest in the world tells us they should start slimming down.

    
    

Rwanda, Malawi, Burundi, Swaziland, Lesotho: Rwanda, Malawi and Burundi have poor, basic agricultural subsistence economies that rely on hydro power to a large extent, so fossil fuel use and carbon emissions from electricity generation, industry or transportation are insignificant. They do not consume or pollute much but their countries have limited ecological carrying capacities. The majority of Burundi's population cannot feed themselves enough now so it is time to cut back on population growth. Deforestation has been nearly wholesale in Burundi and has been devastating for Rwanda, too.

Let's set aside our tendency to cut down the next tree for wood as fuel. Instead, we encourage these countries to seriously-entertain widespread use of sun-dried banana briquettes made from compressed banana peels, banana leaves, banana stems and sawdust. This banana-based fuel apparently burns cleanly, slowly and evenly so it's suitable for cooking and space heating. Contact Nottingham University engineers in UK about it because they could very well be onto something very promising in this regard. Sometimes all there is left to fear about change is change itself because the new and better way is right there before you. Producing biodiesel from jatropha, palm, soya, rapeseed, animal fats or other sources should also be pursued and optimized to the extent arable land needed for food is not sacrificed.

Rwanda appears to be on the up and up in the low carbon world of tomorrow we need now. Projects and options being considered for implementation range from biogas to reforestation to solar power plants and expanded extraction of methane gas from Lake Kivu (careful!).

About one quarter of Rwanda's people do not have access to water that is safe to drink, however, programs are apparently in place to help most of the population solve this dilemma by 2012. Drought has also affected Lesotho and Swaziland. Where there is a shortage of useable water, a food shortage may soon follow. Swaziland is in an especially vulnerable position. The incidence of malaria has been high. Hopefully, we will not have an epidemic of cholera spreading in from Zimbabwe. Swaziland's carbon footprint is near zero per capita and Lesotho's is very modest indeed. However, Lesotho has a developing problem of wetlands degradation and soil erosion. Too much sediment is building-up in downstream areas causing a reduction in water flow rates and hydropower capacity and increasing the risk of flooding.

    
    

El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras: These settings are vulnerable to extreme weather events. To worsen the impact of such events, there is too much deforestation and erosion arising from stripping, clearing, hacking, slashing, burning, plundering and/or mismanagement of natural resources and protective ecosystems. Various waterways are very polluted. Civil strife in some localities adds to the woes. The new mathematics comes with this theorem: If you cheat the environment, you cheat all life forms in that environment (including yourself). The corollary is many more tourists come to visit a pristine environment. Why would one try to reconnect with nature somewhere that has been suffering rapid deforestation, in particular, such as Nicaragua and Honduras?

Nicaragua's water is suspect and you are discouraged from drinking water from, or swimming in, Lake Managua any time soon. The consequences would not be pretty - you would be at considerable risk of coming away with malaria, dengue fever or some sort of diarrheal disease.

    
    

Morocco: Except for a small amount of hydropower, Morocco is still almost-entirely dependent on fossil fuels for energy. However, Morocco has a sizeable fund to support renewable energy projects, in particular, vast expansion of solar thermal power. They have commenced solar thermal projects and may move headlong into solar photovoltaic-driven ones, too with external assistance from European countries. By 2020, solar power may constitute a third or more of Morocco's grid power and wind-driven turbines could supply one-sixth of their connected power generation capacity. If and as these projects come to be, ecological survivability will be greatly enhanced.

    
     Niger, Mali, Chad, Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone: Homo sapiens cannot survive more than about one week without water. Rainfall in the Sahel belt across the southern perimeter of the Sahara Desert has decreased by one-quarter in little more than a generation. Drought has meant internal movement of large numbers of people in most countries here. When the rain does come, it tends to come as heavy rain, that associated with flood events, loss of life, agricultural mayhem and various other destruction. The flow of the Niger River, whose drainage area covers one-third of west Africa, has been reduced by about one-half due to population demands on it, climate change, drought, desertification, siltation and pollution. Also further east in Mali, Chad and Ethiopia, lake-sized areas of water have evaporated, been used up or diverted in recent times. Average annual rainfall  in the area is half what it was two generations ago. Loss of water has also been directly linked to overuse, particularly by the overzealous irrigating of cash crops. Overfishing and overgrazing adds to the woes. The fact that charcoal remains the only half-decent source of affordable heating energy in many regions here further compounds the problems as more trees are cut down to produce it. For all these reasons, in particular global warming, Lake Chad is drying up as the Sahara Desert advances southward and rainfall lessens. We have heard the remaining water is now about 15% the area it was a generation or two ago. At times, it recedes to as little as 2% the surface area it was in times passed. Instead of more water, murky gray marshland abounds.

Given that it takes up to 1000 mass units of water to produce one mass unit of food, can more hunger be that far removed for the people of these countries? There has not been enough rainfall or water available in Ethiopia. Ethiopia apparently now has some three million people on the brink of malnutrition and 100,000 already severely malnourished, many of them helpless children. Clearly, help is very much needed in these places, not for people to look the other way.

The fertility rate in both Niger and Mali is apparently over seven, the highest rates on Earth for countries. In Ethiopia, it has reached five children per woman. Clearly, bearing children is at an unsustainable level, as a dramatic overtaxing of natural resources results. Burkina Faso also appears to have too-high birth rates. With all this happening, you can hardly expect to add a 3% plus per year population growth rate in many of these areas and come away with any conclusion other than that some new macro-scale crisis will emerge before long. Contaminated water, foul air and dust often adds to the challenges of preserving public health and well being in places like Bamako, Mali; Ndjamena, Chad and Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

An estimated two billion or more people worldwide are not able to use water for personal hygiene. The people of these seven countries are among about three-quarters of a billion in more than 40 countries worldwide who suffer from inadequate sanitation, a public health problem whose solution is often compounded by shortages of fresh water. As time goes by and global warming contributes to increased deforestation, drought, desertification, soil erosion and salt content on land and in water, all else being equal, water management shortcomings and human health afflictions in this region are expected to worsen. In general in these nation states, much water is contaminated through lack of latrines and introduction of raw sewage into the waterways eventually causing transmission of numerous water-borne diseases. Many major cities are among the most unsanitary locations on Earth. The vast majority of diseases including cholera, typhoid and diarrhea-related ones arise due to poor sanitation. Life expectancy is reduced and infant and child mortality and morbidity are very prevalent especially in Niger, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone and Central African Republic. Try surviving in Niamey, Addis Ababa, Freetown or Bangui. These countries are among the least developed ones on Earth. To add another dollop of ecological risk, Freetown is yet another West African city teetering on the brink of inundation when they face their next extreme weather event and storm surge. Hope is re-emerging for almost-all people of Sierra Leone as they obtain access to electricity for the first time. And in Ethiopia, given what they have been faced with, development activity has been arcing up. Their move to wind and solar power is encouraging.

    
     Cameroon, Senegal, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Mauritania, Cape Verde, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Togo, Benin, Liberia: This category is unusual and alarming in its own right because environmental impacts are apparently contributing to creation of newly-hungry people in West Africa. Deforestation and desertification are present here, too. Wooded savannah areas of West African countries such as Cameroon are increasingly giving way to desert as grazing continues and more and more trees are cut and stripped for charcoal production or firewood. Cameroon has lost nearly five million hectares of forests over the past generation. Moreover, there are other factors including overgrazing, soil erosion, poaching, loss of mangroves and wetlands, energy and food inflation, changes in rainfall and flood patterns and reduced flow and carrying capacity of rivers that contribute to shortages of fish catches, grains and other food for many people. As budgets for fuel and food are reduced, reforestation efforts tend to be put off. Cameroon still managed to plant about two million trees in 2008 and three million are to be planted in 2009 so hope is alive. Moreover, before 2020, nearly one third of the country will become protected conservation areas. Also, more development of solar and hydropower is planned.

The great green wall project across the Sahel to try to stop further desertification is perhaps a meter high in Senegal right now. Of late, the hope and plan now is for it to be extended across the continent and be a corridor about 15 kilometers wide. This sounds to us like the "lead-off hitter", as part of a grand scheme to naturally protect and facilitate restoration of vast areas of depleted agricultural land in Africa. Its a great example of what should receive funding or qualify for help via carbon credits given that its incremental afforestation with a crucial, noble objective that could conceivably pay off in spades one day. The squeeze play is not limited to encroaching desert, it also involves encroaching ocean: the Senegal coastline loses on average about one meter per year of land to erosion and rising sea level. Senegal has historically been heavily dependent on oil-driven power generation. However, there are plans and hopes to move to solar power. Solar stoves, cookers and water heaters are starting to replace other dirty, indoor-polluting energy sources such as wood. Micro-sized lead smelting activities undertaken out of desperation for money should be stopped; children have been dying from exposure to fumes and dust from this grimy, grubstake activity.

Ghana has lost a lot of valuable habitat such that only one-quarter of tropical forest lands remain. Tap water, or lack thereof, has even become a big issue even in Accra. Many Ghanaians are having to travel further to fetch it or to relocate based on where water is available. Vast regions of Ghana's Volta Delta are vulnerable to marine incursion as the ocean rises by about two centimeters each year. Further, places like Ghana and Ivory Coast have become electronic waste dumps, places where youth rub mercury in their hands to ready some electronic junk for burning to extract a fleck of gold. They have unhealthy exposure to cadmium, lead, flame retardants and other noxious chemicals, metals and airborne combustion by-products only to gain a little copper or iron for sale. 

The hacking, slashing and cutting of vegetation historically in Cote d'Ivoire has left only some miserable fraction of the plant kingdom that once existed. Deforestation, drought and climate change driven drying-out of landscape has displaced increasing numbers of people to the big cities, in particular, Abidjan. Urban areas grow uncontrollably and can become miserly centers where many people are enduring a wretched time, have nowhere else to go and not all that much to do except take action to ensure survival. Let's hope that next we don't have river blindness spreading anew in Ivory Coast.

The people of Mauritania, Cape Verde, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Togo and Liberia consume very little energy so contribute negligibly to global warming. In Mauritania, their deforestation presents one of the grimmest settings in all of Africa. Sandstorms, high winds and drought episodes are often acute, driving people in desperation to cut down more trees, exacerbating the situation. Trouble is, many more trees, shrubs and grasses are needed to defend against the advance of sand dunes, to stop it. Water-stressed people often have no remaining option other than to migrate in search of it. Cape Verde suffers from prolonged drought episodes, seasonal dust storms, soil erosion, deforestation and a serious lack of potable water.  

In The Gambia, a riparian society, water-borne diseases and ailments have been especially prevalent. In Guinea-Bissau, people watch out for the water contact disease, schistosomiasis among others. The Gambia, mostly a flood plain of the Gambia River, and Guinea-Bissau, a coastal plain area where the lowlands stretch far inland, have more than just deforestation, overfishing and overgrazing to worry about. The most ominous situation they face may well be the Atlantic Ocean submergence threat that lingers. Your address is only as valuable now as the height above global sea level you are perched at in cities like Banjul, The Gambia; Bissau, Guinea-Bissau; Nouakchott, Mauritania and Monrovia, Liberia which are already prone to flooding. Incidences of flash flooding affect sanitation and agricultural productivity directly and lead to spreading of various diseases. Anecdotal evidence indicates encroachment by the sea affecting parts of the Liberian coast has progressed at a rate of about one kilometer per generation. Guinea is likewise in the crosshairs of the formidable phenomenon of global warming and climate change. Its low-lying coastal plain includes the major city, Conakry, right on the coast. Unhappily, Conakry, Guinea; Lome, Togo and Monrovia, Liberia already have formidable water quality and quantity issues. In Liberia, only about one third of the population has access to water fit to drink or cook with. The vast majority of people here still lack access to basic washroom facilities or attempt to share a public toilet with literally thousands of other people. Moreover, their numbers are going up and up. Population pressure compounds their challenges and ability to keep expanding the infrastructure and public services they now have. Liberia has recently faced a horrifying infestation of caterpillars meaning the useable water supply deteriorated further due to bacterial and viral contamination from caterpillar ends and more.

    
     Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea: Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea are parts of two very large islands. Both countries have significant highland and mountainous areas. They have been slow to develop their natural resources partly as a result of challenging physical geography. However, coastal areas are vulnerable to rise in global sea level. The consequences have already begun for some people, forcing them to migrate internally.

Timor-Leste has a slash-and-burn mentality that persists. Papua New Guinea has troubles with deforestation of tropical rainforest: an estimated one-quarter has been removed or degraded already and half could be gone by 2020. Intentional burning of peatlands and rainforests remains too-widespread in Papua New Guinea. Dealing with the "morning after" implications of free-for-all mining activity in this frontier country has brought much pollution-related grief for its people.

As the Earth and its inhabitants grapple with the very real possibility of one day having more than 10 billion people, the population arcs ever-upwards in Papua New Guinea. Within a time span of two generations the population could about-double.  

Both these countries are underdeveloped. We think a future with Congolese-type sustainable forest ecosystems should be pursued whereby natural resource extractors and harvesters are held in abeyance to a significant extent in exchange for an external stream of payments and inducements. The focus should be on further development of cottage industries and ecotourism.

    
     Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia: Carbon footprints in these countries are quite miniscule. Subsistence agriculture occupies most people. Hydropower generates virtually all electric power in Laos and between one-third and one-half in Myanmar and Cambodia. Of late, Laos has been diving into the monolithic plantations game in an attempt to provide massive amounts of wood chips and pellets into the Chinese and other markets. In a way, this situation is similar to plantation style monocultures of palm oil or soy to produce biodiesel. We have land use change emissions, loss of biodiversity and loss of food growing potential. So while the intent is noble, in practice it turns out, on balance, not to be a good idea. All-in emissions levels from the life-cycle for aerobic wood-burning biomass power generation have already proven to be unacceptably high, perhaps as ugly as that arising from combustion of coal or heavy crude oil. 

Especially in Myanmar and Cambodia, these countries have problems arising from deforestation, erosion, lack of latrines especially in rural areas, and shortages of water suitable for drinking. Despite setting up conservation areas, Myanmar has been clearing forested areas at the net rate of about 10 million hectares of forest in a generation of time. Half the mangroves on Irrawaddy delta disappeared during a generation of military rule in Myanmar. Tragically, the clearing of mangrove forests and swampland contributed to the mighty impact of the cyclone and incursion of saltwater striking Myanmar in 2008. Surges during this catastrophe reached as high as six meters above means sea level. Through sheer human agony triggered by cyclone Nargis, the Irrawaddy delta and Irrawaddy River area demonstrates again the vulnerability of people, homes and cropland that are near sea level. 

Cambodia and parts of Myanmar are low-lying countries geographically which means they have ongoing significant risk of being afflicted by flooding events and transgressions of the ocean. Phnom Penh is very vulnerable to ecological risks. Diseases, air, wind-blown soil and water pollution are not stopping at border crossings. Water-borne illness and arsenic poisoning is widespread. Apparently, solid arsenic contained in the sediment load that reacts with iron in oxygen-reduced environments near the surface in the presence of certain bacteria results in alteration of the arsenic such that it is easily dissolved in water. Highland erosion of arsenic from rocks thereby ends up percolating into groundwater, aquifers and wells. Erosion in Cambodia is often associated with unchecked strip mining and cutting down trees to make charcoal or burn the wood as a source of energy. Charcoal is also later combusted as a fuel creating a dreadful carbonaceous soot for people to breathe. One intriguing development in the early stages for Cambodia has been production of char including char contained in the form of briquettes concocted from biomass such as cassava and coconut husks, residues and chaff. 

    
 

                                                            See Investigations2 and Investigations3 pages here for continuation of this Eco-Table with Eco-Flags into the murky and smoky depths.

 

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