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Eco-Flag "head-lights" to the left reflect forecast ecological survivability in future years. Eco-Flag "tail-lights" are shown on the right-hand-side of our four Eco-Tables. Tail-lights include: "1900s" column lights that reflect the historical situation; "2010" column colored-boxes that reflect the current situation; and "2019" column values that depend on the nature of the binding laws that govern legal actions in a country to have an effect on ecological survivability in the 2019 timeframe including our judgment of progress towards attainment of the ambit of the relevant legal framework. Often, despite their importance to our very existence, environmental and energy laws are slow to be updated and once they are, the full force of the law may take years to have a significant impact on ecosystems. Therefore, as sad as it seems given the time pressures we all face on this, the "2019" year value here is effectively a tail-light in our system. Again, this spooks us but we think it's realistic so we would rather try to meet that challenge head-on. Similarly, as a first approximation, the existing ecological state of a country or countries may be assumed to have arisen due to historical laws, rules and regulations that prevailed there although this is not accurate in some jurisdictions.
There is a 24-color scheme in use in Tables at this website. The particular color reflects the relative health, harmony and sustainability of ecosystems. The range of colors includes in order: dark blue, blue, dark green, green, light green, green-gold, yellow, cream, peanut butter brown, tan, brown, ox-blood brown, light orange, red, flat red, light pink, pink, crimson, indigo purple, mauve, gray, charcoal gray, lead black and black. On a best efforts basis, the color of our status lights changes with time as we become aware of relevant events and information regarding a particular location.
| OUR ECO-FLAG COLORED LIGHTS OF HOPE©™ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO-TABLE | 111 | 222 | 333 | 444 | 555 | 666 |
| Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries™ | ||||||
| Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries™ | ||||||
| Murky, Hazy Crimson Red Sunset Countries | ||||||
| Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries™ |
Our current expose of Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries is shown below on this webpage including explanations of ecological risks. This gray quadrant constitutes the lowest part of our Eco-Table those nations where ecological survivability to 2019 is most worrisome. We need modernization quickly. Outdated, inefficient, carbon-intensive enterprises and segments need to be squeezed-out from the marketplace. They ought to be replaced with cleaner, greener alternatives, not helped to continue as going concerns. In some instances, wholesale changes are underway for the better but it takes time for the impact to be realized in the natural world.
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Comment May 11, 2010 - It's time for a "Boris". By that, we mean a little "shock therapy" is needed as the beloved Boris Yeltsin was known to figure out long before others did. In the present circumstances in the Gulf of Mexico where, at the margin, ecological survivability is deteriorating further every hour that goes by, we believe it's urgent to have nearly 100% certainty-equivalent that the BP oil well blow-out will be stopped. Based on the dire eco-risks that are collapsing into reality, and the highly-uncertain outlook for plugging this bore hole to stop the flow of oil, we would issue a decree stipulating BP immediately vault into action to drill a second relief and containment well. Many possible things could go wrong with the first relief well now being drilled over a period of several months that would prevent it from being completed as intended. Of course, everyone hopes the blow-out will be brought under control long before a relief well intercepts its flow. But we need to bring potential solutions to this situation along in parallel not in series. The USA and Gulf region, and the rest of us too, need a redoubling of assurance that this eco-calamity is going to end whatever the cost may be to the private interests bearing responsibility.
Toll Scroll form Green Earth Memoranda & Solution ("GEMS")
On this web page and on Investigations, Investigations0, Investigations1, Investigations2 and Investigations4 pages, Pan Geo Investment Inc. presents the latest iteration of our investigation and Eco Table with Eco Flags and Memoranda. It was first published December 9, 2007.
May 26, 2010 - Pan Geo Investment Inc. is now offering our Green Earth Memoranda and Solution ("GEMS") in the format of a Toll Scroll. This format of Memoranda covers what is presented in our essays and Eco-Tables on the six Investigations web pages of this website. You do not have to register to gain access. On an honour system, if you utilize this GEMS investigation service by scrolling further down the page beyond this Toll Scroll paragraph to utilize the content there in whole or in part (excluding any web page navigation aids, advertisements and footnotes to the web page which may be viewed without charge), the following schedule of fees applies: To read from the PanGeoInvestment.com ("our") Investigations page content beyond the introductory paragraphs above and this Toll Scroll paragraph, cost is US $9.94; to use our Investigations0 page content beyond the initial paragraphs (displayed with a larger font size), cost is US $9.95; to utilize our Investigations1 page content beyond the lead-in paragraphs (having a larger font size), cost is US $9.96; to read Investigations2 page content beyond the beginning paragraphs (with a larger font size), cost is US $9.97; to use this page content beyond this Toll Scroll paragraph, cost is US $9.98; to utilize our Investigations4 page content beyond the introductory paragraphs (having a larger font size), cost is US $9.99. For GEMS on all six Investigations web pages, cost is US $49.94. Please remit payment using the PayPal Buy Now button below where credit cards may be used, or send payment directly to us at the following address: Pan Geo Investment Inc., 688, Unit 4 - 350 S.E. Marine Drive, Vancouver, B.C. V5X 2S5 Canada. We very much appreciate your business, thank you.
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| PAN GEO INVESTMENT ECO-FLAGS TABLE© 46 Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries (part 1) as of July 18, 2010 (90th edition). First edition published December 9, 2007. All rights reserved. | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2049 | 2039 | 2029 | MEMORANDA | 2019 | 2010 | 1900s |
|
Chile: Chile, a gargantuan metals and minerals extractor and
processor, is up-against-it to balance industry versus citizen demands for water
and electric power. Boosting coal production to power one-quarter of electricity
generation before 2020 is an unsavory proposition. Chileans are already among
the largest emitters of greenhouse gases per capita in South and Central
America. The marked regression from existing and more possible renewable sources
to much more coal-power instead is inexplicable. The thought that their coal-burn-share could
rise from one-sixth to some two-thirds of their total electricity-generating
capacity in the generation of time ending in 2029 is to us a macabre one. The jig is over
worldwide for wanton burning of syrupy, carbon-molasses fossil fuels; we would not approve that massive
coal-fired installation set for construction in Totoral. Belatedly,
Chile may be getting a little bit serious about developing renewable sources of energy
including wind, geothermal and solar power capacity.
"Greening" is not a game you can put off playing in. Chile should have a well-developed mass transit by now to reduce transportation-related pollution and help people get from A to B. Santiago has too-high levels of particulate matter and sulfates lingering in the air. Smog and fine particle pollution engulfs most Chilean cities in a hazardous haze including Santiago, Valdivia, Temuco, Rancagua and Vina del Mar. Such poor air constitutes a public health hazard especially for aged, frail, sick, weak or tired, run-down people. The use of petroleum-based diesel fuel in vehicles, commercial generators and power plants has to be cut back. | ||||||
|
Mexico: Deforestation and the
attendant soil erosion and loss of water catchment is a big
problem. There is a critical lack of water for hydropower due
to disappearing glaciers and failure to replenish the water table and rivers
sufficiently by rain. Mexico has had one of the highest rates of tree loss anywhere; only
about one-sixth of their original mangrove forests and rainforests still exist. Mexico is among the top
five countries in number of threatened species. 10% of indigenous
species are gone forever. Surprisingly, perhaps 30% of fish species depend on
mangrove forests in some way for long term survival. Try telling that to a
developer angling to drain the next mangrove swamp and forest to establish
another condominium project, resort, marina or shrimp farm.
Water pollution is widespread from pesticides, sewage, arsenic and industrial waste. There are shortages of drinking water. Air pollution degenerates into a suffocating quagmire in densely-populated urban areas of Mexico and Colombia such as Mexico City, Ciudad Juarez and Bogota. In Mexico City, there is an unhealthy level of ozone in the air more frequently than 4 out of every 5 days. The sky is often blanketed by a sickly yellow haze. According to scientific research, the chronic air pollution is, over time, affecting the sense of smell for people who live there as a consequence of pollution-driven deterioration of their olfactory sensory receptors, not to mention their respiratory tracts, capillaries and air sacs. Industrial corridors in Mexico are responsible for strafing local populations with hideous levels of noxious chemicals such as benzene and carbon disulfide. There exists an epidemic of plastic water bottles, often petroleum-based plastic that has as a constituent polyethylene terephthalate. Also, Mexico still has some heavy oil production and it remains a profligate gas flarer in association with various oil production facilities. There has been a high incidence of manganism in the populations nearest manganese mining operations in Hidalgo state. Happily, in a historical context, Mexico appears to be more aggressive lately in solving their ecological challenges. Beyond efforts to slow deforestation, they are planning to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting coal and oil-fired power plants to natural gas and forcing old diesel-burning trucks, buses and other jalopies off the streets. Mexico City now has a great new green plan that includes dedicated bus lanes, bicycle ways, solar panel deployments, rooftop gardens and more. Recycling is finally starting to take hold. Plans are being accelerated in Mexico to make biodiesel fuel from widespread cultivation of varieties of the jatropha plant. Mexico now has only about 2% of electric power being contributed from wind turbines but they are aiming to ramp that amount up. Wind power installations are being constructed in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec at the rate of approximately one gigawatt of added capacity per year. Due to the challenging ecological circumstances in Mexico, aiming for fast reductions in greenhouse gas emissions before 2025 would involve a phenomenal turnaround to a once-sorry situation. Their commitments so far include being 8% below 2009 levels by 2012 which represents an important inflection point, and to be 50% below their 2002 amount of emissions before 2050. They aim to generate one-quarter of their electricity from renewable sources before 2013. | ||||||
|
Brazil, Malaysia: Brazil has been plagued by over-logging, slash-and-burn
agricultural land-clearing and sometimes-huge smoky peat land and forest fires.
Brazil has more threatened species than virtually anywhere else on Earth.
Deforestation and loss of habitat in tropical rainforests is an ongoing big
concern not only because of endangered species but also due to the consequent
reduced global capacity for uptake of carbon dioxide by plant life. Brazil is
home to perhaps one-third of the remaining tropical rainforests on Earth. More
than 20% of the Brazilian Amazon is already gone as is about 18% of the entire
Amazon Rainforest. Some fear upwards of 50% may
disappear by about 2030 along with many species of plants and animals, not to
mention possible medicines of the future. Huge areas of woodlands, grasslands
and mixtures thereof have also been lost implying a great deal more emissions
from land use changes and degradation. Scientifically, the worry is the
ecological risk of Brazil, and in particular East Amazonia, tipping into
wholesale drying out into savannah or cerrado, the so-called Amazon "dieback" scenario of global warming
and climate change. Some say this could happen anytime after about one-fifth of
the forest has been razed. Others say the limit is more like 50% to 60% of the
rainforest being eliminated, so there is currently sizeable uncertainty about
this phenomenon. However, sentient, self-aware and eco-aware human beings are
smart enough to realize if you don't sway, you won't tip. Unfortunately,
Brazil's ecological survivability has been swaying and we are all interconnected. Brazil remains one of the top four emitters of greenhouse gases on Earth largely due to reckless, wholesale destruction of the Amazon Rainforest and cerrado. Brazil may still account for as much as one-half of global greenhouse gas emissions that arise from deforestation which would be 10% of the overall global total. This amount still only accounts for about three-quarters of emissions from Brazil. So its clearly time for action including a concerted crackdown; we already know that having 300 "environmental agents" covering the entire Brazilian Amazon proved to be wholly-inadequate. The Brazilian government's current plan is to ensure more trees are planted than cut down in the Amazon by 2015. In our view, to merely cut the deforestation rate in half within a decade is totally inadequate, a nonstarter. Any thoughts of afforestation and reforestation? Over the past generation, Brazil's net loss of forest has been approximately 50 million hectares, an astronomical amount. Brazil aims to reduce the prolific teardown rate of its forests during 2009 by 70% before 2017 and 80% before 2020. This is calculated to cut greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 40% versus the "do nothing" scenario which effectively means their base year for measurement is 2020 not 1990, 2000, 2005 or 2009. Authorities in Brazil have said such a target should equate to emissions reductions of about 20% versus that of 2005. Special federal police and environmental agents have been sent in to try to stop illegal logging, land-clearing, sawmill operations and lighting of forest fires from escalating anew across this frontier. Authorities are apparently going after farmers and cattle ranchers that cut down trees, the industry responsible for about 80% of Amazon deforestation. Now, if you raise livestock on illegally-cleared land, your animals could be impounded. Yet, many Amazon natural resource harvestors are defiant and the rate of deforestation has so far continued to increase, wiping out huge new swathes of rainforest. We still have the Bom Futuro's and Tailandia's of the world with us. Hydropower in Brazil accounts for about three-quarters of their electricity generation which is fine so long as Andean glaciers remain voluminous, not a given as we have pointed out. Coal use was once widespread then went into decline due to the historical rise of hydropower and, more recently, of sugar-based ethanol and soybean-based biodiesel sources. However, sizeable offshore hydrocarbon reserves are going to light-up their fossil fuel totals for the foreseeable future, adding to their greenhouse gas totals. Brazil also now has in-place feed-in tariff incentives to spur the advent of more renewable sources of energy. We also have phenomena like methane bloating livestock and sooty, sulfurous tailpipe ejections from dirty-diesel-fueled vehicles that proliferate especially in metropolitan areas like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Beyond petroleum-based diesel and compressed natural gas, sugar-based ethanol provides most transportation fuel. Unfortunately, we still have widespread application of the ancient technique of controlled burning of sugar cane fields to remove underbrush. The cost to life as we know it of this practice is symbolized by curtains of dark gray smoke that waft up into the air from the cane fields. Brazilians should utilize the fibrous parts of sugar cane as a second generation cellulosic bio-fuel. Sao Paulo is the conurbation likely to lead Brazil towards the future - this vast metropolitan area of more than 10 million people is aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% relative to 2005 levels by 2012. That's an aggressive time-line and we like it a lot. Furthermore, by more-closely monitoring the origin of incoming construction materials, they hope to provide an economic disincentive by blocking those cutting down trees in the Amazon and supplying it to the Sao Paulo market. The state of Sao Paulo is looking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% versus 2009 levels by 2020. We assume that includes emissions arising from land use changes. Indubitably, Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse. It is another one that is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We also hope there is not an agricultural chemical-runoff pollution disaster looming on the horizon. This may be a consequence of prodigious quantities of fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides, herbicides and fungicides applied to once-marginal cerrado land areas in an apparently-successful effort to enhance yields. Clearly, we are not dealing with quaint vegan family farmers here. Rather, we have mega-scale baron-like operators of agricultural complexes. Malaysia has turned more and more to bring on-stream new coal-fired electricity-generating capacity even though they are already well-up in the rankings of egregious greenhouse gas emitters. They have made progress in converting from coal and oil-fired power plants to ones driven by natural gas. However, overall coal use is still up and up as they continue to act on prior-millennium advice to arc gray growth up. Malaysia still has transportation fuel subsidies ostensibly to encourage people to motor more, to combust more greenhouse gases and other noxious pollutants. A target of 5% renewable energy is woefully inadequate. Malaysia also has a problem from overuse of potent pesticides including ones already banned from use in many other countries. Too much land has been cleared to make way for palm oil or rubber plantations, in particular, in Sarawak. If people generally realized palm oil is bad for their heart, there would be little or no food-related demand for it. That alone may help to curtail expansion of this industry and the associated land-clearing binge regardless of its use for biodiesel, soap, cosmetics, etc. We do like the idea of utilizing empty palm oil fruit bunches and rice husks as biofuel. However, to date, it has been mostly palm oil that has ended up as part of the fuel blend in gasoline, for example, in many European countries. Malaysia has problems from forest fire haze. Much of it is a suffocating, morbid-yellowy-gray smoke from Indonesia. At times this haze is hard to distinguish from smoke and soot emanating from an overabundance of diesel-powered vehicles that eject plumes of noxious chemicals including aromatic hydrocarbons, formaldehyde, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide. | ||||||
|
Venezuela, Cuba: Venezuela gives us a
glimpse of what the end game might look like for countries that remain heavily
focused on fossil fuels and minerals especially heavy oil and coal. A crackdown
on small-time gold mining-related pollution is a work in progress. With water
availability diminishing, the concentration of mercury, cyanide and other
horrible stuff has increased in streams and rivers. Hydropower fires about two-thirds of their electricity generation in times of fairly-normal water, snowpack and alpine glacier ice replenishment. With the gathering storm of climate change, there already may be no glaciers left in Venezuela. On the biological front, red howler monkeys' genuinely have something to howl about as their numbers have been decimated in Venezuela since 2000. It's not entirely bleak here either because they have set-aside massive tracts of land as conservation areas. Cuba mines for nickel and cobalt and is a significant exporter of tobacco products. For energy, they are highly-dependent on imports of Venezuela's heavier, higher-carbon grades of fossil fuels so their carbon footprint is material on a per person basis. Cuba recognizes the potential of solar power and biomass but has done little except with sugarcane waste and bagasse. Eventually, non-food leftovers from rice, coconut, coffee and other crops could also be tapped for renewable biofuel. They are also investing in wind power to take advantage of naturally windy conditions that affect them. Biodiversity has been quite well preserved in Cuba so their slow economic development worked out okay in this sense. Coral reefs offshore are still in relatively good shape compared to most other parts of the Caribbean and beyond. | ||||||
|
Turkey, Mongolia: These two nations are
traditional mineral extraction and processing
centers trying to modernize and cope with economies based on commodities like
coal, chromium, copper, iron ore and mercury. Thermal coal-fired power generators
severely tax air quality. Scratch those plans with a
big "X". Much yellow dust originates in Mongolian deserts. Some cities including Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia and Mugla,
Istanbul, Izmit and Ankara, Turkey have serious pollution of the atmosphere.
Gray skies from photochemical smog and soot prevail virtually year round in some
localities in Turkey. They had
double-digit growth of heat-altering emissions in 2007. There should not be free
or even cheap coal! Coal is NOT cheap, neither is viscous home heating oil, GET it! To add to the health hazard due
to the simple act of breathing, according to the World Health Organization,
nearly half the population smokes in each of these two countries.
Historically in Turkey, household chemicals and waste have been dumped mercilessly into waterways. Stream water is frequently gray, brown or even black not blue or green. Unchecked mining activity near watershed areas has taken its toll to the point where there are also unsafe levels of arsenic in the water supply of countless cities and towns. Specialized water treatment facilities are now being purpose-built to deal with the arsenic problem. Moreover, supply of water is a grim issue so hydroelectricity is no longer a viable option. Lake Tuz, once Turkey's second largest lake, has completely evaporated or been used up. The lakebed area is now so salty trees wilt. Surprisingly, more than one-quarter of Turks still do not have access to toilets and sewage facilities, a shortage of water being one good reason why. Turkey remains far behind any pretence of implementing and enforcing European environmental standards. Turkey has been a laggard in developing renewable sources of energy. However, lately they have been pursuing wind and geothermal energy projects with determination. Turks have installed lots of solar water heaters but we think they should embark on many more solar power projects with considerably less reliance on hydropower and fossil fuels. In Mongolia, we have mentioned already about the pressures being faced by their epic nomadic herders. It is apparent that climate change is forcing them to change their livelihoods as water bodies dwindle to levels never known before. Many people flee to the cities. Many more start flailing around trying to adapt. This may be creating a follow-on problem - too many less mobile sheep and goats leading to overgrazing and further drying out in some areas of the countryside. | ||||||
| Armenia, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia: Severe air, water and soil pollution has resulted in this area of the world and it is likely to take a long time for it to rebound ecologically even if a concerted effort begins now. These countries are guilty of intensive use of various agricultural chemicals and fertilizers including toxic defoliants and pesticides widely-banned elsewhere including DDT. There is often a too-high concentration of various salts. There exists significant desertification pressure in many areas, oftentimes it has already set-in. Forest cover is less than 10% of Armenia now. Moldova has the historical problem of widespread soil erosion from stupid farming practices. In Azerbaijan, decades of heavy industry, in particular, oil drilling-related activity, petrochemicals, textiles, power utilities and serving as a hub for cargo shipping have contributed to the current dire state environmentally of Baku, Sumgayit and the Caspian Sea. Undaunted, Azerbaijan wants to double oil production by 2014. Oil spills and chemical runoff including considerable agricultural pesticides have added to water pollution woes. Many citizens' lives and well-being have been endangered or upset by pollution and shortages of drinking water. There are similar concerns for Turkmenistan and the eastern Caspian Sea area. The Black Sea is also badly polluted with various toxic chemicals as is the case with many inland bodies of water in Georgia and Armenia. The Black Sea has very high concentration of dissolved hydrogen sulfide gas and is pretty well devoid of life. Apparently, conditions have been created where there is a proliferation of comb jellyfish that survive and thrive in this Black Sea environment even though it is hostile to most marine life. To add to their woes, per capita greenhouse gas emissions have been relatively high in Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. | ||||||
|
Romania, Bulgaria,
Hungary, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina: These countries have various and sundry pollution
problems from careless discharge of untreated sewage and industrial effluents.
They are also on a path now where the EU allows them to continue belching
various warming and asphyxiating gases without penalties until 2020. Thermal power plants are still significant sources of sulfur dioxide thereby
contributing to increased acidity of rainfall in the surrounding areas. Too much
coal is being used and spit and grit manufacturing has not been supplanted by
cleaner, more service-oriented economies. In short,
these countries are too energy inefficient and burn too much high-carbon fuel.
This exacerbates unacceptably the throw-off of greenhouse gases and soot from
poorly-combusted and dirty fuels.
Romania has had mining effluent contamination of water from seepages of cyanide and traces of heavy metal content that ended up in several rivers. Air quality is poor due especially to the environmental implications that eventually result from coal-production in Jiu Valley. In Bulgaria, the sorry business of old mining and metallurgical operations is still widespread. Bulgaria is said to have the most polluted air in Europe right now. In relation to the environment, industrial cities like Pernik and Burgas are ghastly places. Happily, the EU is propelling Bulgaria along, to encourage them to get off the coal monkey, by mandating they derive about one-sixth of electrical generation capacity from renewable sources by 2020. Nuclear energy provides approximately one-third of their grid-power now. It's still early days but Romania and Bulgaria have modest wind power installed and are looking to the sun, rivers and biomass to provide energy, too. Hungary is also too reliant on coal and other fossil fuels for energy. Macedonia is overly-dependent on fossil fuels and has bad air pollution. | ||||||
|
Nigeria: Nigeria rivals South Africa as the largest
emitter of greenhouse gases in sub-Sahara Africa. Nigeria has a dense
population, rapid urbanization and an economy based on fossil fuel production
and export and is especially known for deltaic and offshore oil production. It
has a history of unconscionable gas flaring involving the wasteful generation of
huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane not to mention the hideous waste of a
fuel. Associated gas is not re-injected into wells nor produced despite years of
burning it off. A fine soot coats everything within range of plumes of pollution
emanating from the flares. Only Russia has wasted and polluted more in recent
years by flaring gas and not mandating its production or reinjection subsurface.
Finally however, the jig may be up in Nigeria as the government has imposed a
requirement that flaring end by
December 31, 2010. Thirty years plus of this is a travesty. Had oil well operators been charged at current market prices
for the raw gas wasted and the carbon emissions generated by flaring, none of
this would have happened in the first place. The same comment applies to every
country where flaring of associated gas takes place. Don't believe oil companies
regarding investment hurdle rates for gas processing plants or the costs of
re-injecting gas.
Pervasive air, water and soil pollution, including the effects from numerous gas flares, oil dumps, spills and slicks, is compounded by inadequate land management, soil erosion, dust and sand storms, acid rain, deforestation, desertification, drought and loss of biodiversity. We believe ongoing clean-up should be a requirement of operating, not an option to be deferred, mused over and exercised or not. Nigeria also has legions of oily-fuel-driven moped-style motorbikes fouling the air. In Lagos, there are problems with carbon monoxide, particulates, ozone and more. Lagos is apparently taking the lead on vehicle emissions tests which should result in the sidelining of many dirty, inefficient internal combustion engines on wheels. Lead-based household paint is the primary culprit now being fingered for the widespread elevated levels of lead in peoples' blood. This overexposure to lead is prevalent especially in the bloodstream of children. Deforestation has been out of control, proceeding at the rate of more than 3% per year of what's left standing. Some say there are precious little forested areas left in northern Nigeria. Further, borderline-dry agricultural lands here could be tipped into becoming barren, unproductive areas as a consequence of the average ambient temperature rise associated with global warming. On the desertification front, the hour is late; an estimated one-third of previously arable land has already become desert. Additionally, agricultural productivity decline affects still-arable land in the country. All told, the likelihood of there being a drop in domestic food production clearly has potential to wreak havoc with the populace. The Nigerian government has already implemented a massive afforestation seedling planting program involving millions of trees each year. So far, however, this effort has not solved the problem. They are going to try reforestation with fruit-bearing vines and trees with hopes the local people will see considerable value in nurturing them to maturity. The Sahara Desert advances south by about half a kilometer or so each year but hopefully a green wall or corridor in the north of the country can eventually slow or stop further desertification there. Nigeria has been moving in baby steps to enhance their capability in solar, wind, solid biomass and liquid bio-fuel endeavors. With their sunshine, Nigeria clearly could be a solar power. Even hillbillies from Saskatchewan are wondering "what are they waiting for"?! There also is an early inkling toward use of sweet sorghum as a base for producing bio-ethanol without unduly disrupting land area devoted to growing food. Throughout rural Nigeria, only about 15% of people have water suitable for drinking and cholera is still of near-epidemic proportions in most places. As if all this does not sound chaotic enough, Lagos, now home to 15 million people, is on average only several meters above sea level and much of it is below two meters elevation. Storm surges often involve waves up to three meters high, leaving a margin of (gulp!) minus one meter for about half the population of the metro area. Trouble potentially looms 24 hours a day for the parts of Lagos that lie below global mean sea level now. As the useful land area to live on diminishes, one could perhaps pin hopes on people moving and the population declining. However, Nigeria demographically has one of the highest fertility rates of all countries, at about 5.4 children per woman. | ||||||
|
Taiwan: Taiwan gushes about 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions
but have only about one-third of 1% of the world's population.
According to their government sources, growth of greenhouse gas emissions has
skyrocketed to about-triple the level only a generation ago. Taiwan is still very reliant on fossil fuels and heavy industry to
drive their economy. Predictably, this results in inordinate amounts of air and
water pollution.
Junky motorbikes plying the streets add to fouling of the air. Atmospheric
pollution is especially
noticeable in cities, namely Kaohsiung and Taipei. Beyond the excessive
amounts they themselves generate and are responsible for, Chinese Taipei people also suffer from proximity to air and marine pollution
generated by the Mainland part of China. Temperatures in the region have been
rising anomalously even relative to the currently-observed, global average warming.
Coral reefs are not in good shape either; much of this critical marine ecosystem
is apparently disease-ridden but the nature of the affliction is presently
poorly-understood.
Excessive land use changes and deforestation have created conditions where erosion and siltation of rivers have become concerns. Estuarine sediment load, coastal development and withdrawals of ground table water is resulting in the freaky phenomena of coastal subsidence. Better watch that one carefully. The ongoing Taiwanese endeavor to vigorously replant the terrain with copious numbers of deep-rooted, water-retention-tower type trees is a very good one. We believe such remedial actions will pay-off big, especially in the intermediate and long term. More fresh water will be a huge victory. Taiwan are likely to lead in improvement of energy efficiency and conservation by electronic monitoring and metering of various appliances, application of temperature control systems and other electronic apparatus in homes, buildings, factories and warehouses. Taiwan has a target that renewable energy sources comprise 15% of all electric power generation capacity by 2025. By this time, they also seek to reduce greenhouse gases by 20% relative to their 2006 levels. They also have a pretty soft appearing goal of getting back to their 2005 magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions before 2020. Being 30% below business-as-usual levels of 2020 by 2020 appears weak to us. Cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 50% versus that of the year 2000 before 2050 is their long term objective. | ||||||
|
South Africa: South Africa is currently the
biggest-polluting country in Africa. South Africa is
responsible for about 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions and about 40% of
sub-Saharan Africa's total. The usual suspects are present including dense population, ongoing migration attempts
from the country to the cities, and an economy based on coal, metals and
minerals. Pervasive air and water pollution is compounded by inadequate land
management, soil erosion, deforestation, desertification, drought and loss of
species. Maps of this region already depict the presence of lingering
atmospheric brown clouds reflecting the high concentration of certain
potentially life-threatening pollutants. Regarding the brown haze, authorities
point the finger mostly at the prolific use of noxious petroleum-based diesel
fuel and the absence of particle filters on the vast majority of vehicles. South Africa has a huge mining industry and to date still relies on coal for almost 90% of its energy needs. They continue to ramp up coal use domestically not to mention expanding exports of coking coal to losers like grimy old cement and steel manufacturers. Projecting a business-as-usual approach to 2015 would result in about a four-fold increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the level we are at now, not to downplay the impact of a variety of other pollutants they discharge. The status quo answer is clearly unacceptable. Rather, South Africa needs to move fast to reduce use of coal and accelerate development of renewable sources of energy. So far, we hear they are redoubling their effort to go nuclear, apparently planning to rely on a series of smaller nuclear reactors. They now have a feed-in tariff scheme for wind power at least. South Africa is planning for 15% of its electricity to come from renewable sources by 2020. Capping emissions by 2025 is questionable as is their objective to then level emissions for another decade before commencing a decline in absolute amounts. Clearly, reacting to such enormous emissions levels and gushes of other pollutants by 2039 or 2049 is way too late. We flatly disagree that a proposed carbon cap-and-trade system for South Africa would be a more efficient, cost effective, transparent or efficacious mechanism for curtailing greenhouse gas emissions than the global externality tax or tariff (GET) we describe before this portion of our Eco-Table. South African companies are set to be able to reduce tax owing by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Happily, South Africa does now have a system of incentive payments to promote development and utilization of solar power. Poor to inadequate wastewater treatment infrastructure has been recognized. At one point, South Africa's environmental laws were set to become much tougher including the prospect of jail time for those that wantonly pollute. Recently, they have regressed further into accepting further installments of degenerative pollution as a means to more easily solve other socio-economic problems in the near term. Even idyllic Cape Town is said to have more threatened species of plants than any other metropolis in the world. South Africa's bluebuck antelope is long gone. Try visiting Durban a mostly-ancient manufacturing hub where ghastly releases of chemicals from refineries including flaring, dumping and spillage of hydrocarbons have led to serious health problems for its citizens. Cancer cases are mounting and are increasingly being attributed to people routinely inhaling known carcinogens such as benzene, dioxins and mining and smelter byproducts such as mercury. The risk of inundation due to rise in sea level is also quite serious here. Metal processing dust and effluents are also affecting human health in places such as Port Elizabeth. Drink the water or breathe the air there and you could well inhale or ingest a laundry list of metallic elements such as manganese, selenium, nickel, copper, zinc, mercury, thallium, chromium, rubber particulates from burnt tires and more. In South Africa, acid mine drainage (AMD) arises due to oxidation, leaching, dissolution and leaking from extensive metal mining and mineral lease areas. This results in water flowing from there having various metal content and coal residues including too-high concentrations of constituents like iron, sulphates, manganese, uranium and much more. Acidic water also overflows from old mine workings, cavities and drill-holes. Often, the consequences of AMD are contaminated wetlands, waterways and groundwater. For example, the devastating effects of AMD can be seen by the dead fish, reptiles and other life-forms that once thrived in the Olifants, Sabie, Letaba and Wilge Rivers. The rivers are reddish in color from the onslaught of acids and pesticide residues. Clearly, planning more mines within river catchment areas is going to make things worse. The Vaal, Crocodile, Tweelopiespruit and Umgeni Rivers are also seriously polluted including being tainted with metallic particles, acids and other noxious chemicals and residues. There also exists significant contamination from nitrates in the vicinity of platinum mines. Total dissolved solids content of water may be so high that the water is not drinkable or cannot be used for irrigation. On the west side of the country with river mouths near Cape Town, we have significant untreated sewage in the waterways spoiling the Soet and Diep Rivers. In general, there is an overprint of water contamination from an inadequately-maintained sewage pipeline and water treatment system. Across South Africa, the practice of releasing even semi-treated sewage wastewater into the waterways has also led to eutrophication of water bodies and the prevalence of dreadful blue-green algae, indicative of the presence of too much phosphorous and nitrogen in the water. Perhaps one-third of water is so degraded its listed as being "seriously impaired" by the government. How can people "stay away" from over half the country's water supply? That's one thing we would like to know. | ||||||
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Singapore: Singapore is an
advanced industrial center for electronics, pharmaceuticals,
petrochemicals, aviation, shipping, marine service industries and more. They
want to develop into a center for development and manufacture of various clean
technologies, too.
We know that Singapore has done a lot already on the environmental front and
their per capita pollution was in line with that of Japan and parts of the
European Union. Lately
however, as their population has increased along with industrial expansion, the
pattern has been that greenhouse gas emissions have risen markedly. So we think
renewable energy sources such as rooftop solar, rooftop wind, bio-fuels,
offshore wind, wave and tidal need to be pursued much more aggressively in an
attempt to compensate for the limited area and natural resources associated with their city-state. Much more could be done going forward to cut back on wasteful practices such as too-luxurious air-conditioning. There is also too much diesel and coal-fired power generation although natural gas use has been steadily supplanting that of higher carbon fuels, and this trend is expected to continue. Hydrocarbon refineries, petrochemical plants and other manufacturing operations need to be cleaned up, given a green makeover, penalized heavily for not doing so, or shut down in accelerated time frames. Singapore still relies on fossil fuels for over 95% of electricity generation which is very excessive. There are an escalating number of vehicles on already-clogged roads in Singapore although the rate of increase should lessen in future. We like how they penalize drivers for not bicycling or walking. Added to the tailpipe emissions cocktail, residents further suffer from smoke inhalation from Indonesian forest fires. Furthermore, Singapore still engages in the caveman-like practice of incinerating almost-all its garbage such that a steady flow of noxious plumes of pollutants including significant dioxins are vented into the atmosphere. Dioxins and other persistent organic pollutants disrupt hormone balances causing pressure towards infertility and feminization of the male gender. At least they could spend the money to retrofit or install low-emissions capability in their incinerators. Or decommission the trashy ones completely. | ||||||
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Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan: There has been a large
increase in the number of motor vehicles, mostly very inefficient ones, on the
roads especially in the cities such as Tehran, Karachi and Lahore. Heavy
industries such as steel and cement vent soot, dust, cadmium, lead, zinc,
chromium, mercury and other toxic particulates directly into the air. Inefficient
industrial and vehicle combustion results in air containing heavy metal particles, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide,
smog, rubber tire soot
and unburned hydrocarbons way beyond safety standards. Any airborne sulfate
present may coat particulates such as soot and dust adding to the toll of
localized heat-trapping as opposed to the usual cooling effect anticipated from
sulfate particles in the atmosphere reflecting incoming sunlight. In Tehran, the veil of pollution can take a very long time to clear to
anything approaching safe levels. Dust of very fine consistency lingers and
swirls in breezes. Kabul has serious air pollution most of the time and several
other cities in Afghanistan are becoming worse. There is dust, sewage and
burning of all things from garbage to wood, coal and rubber. Afghanistan
has many ancient vehicles that still fill up with
who-knows-what.
Iran has water stresses looming. Lack of water bodies means dust storms that sweep across the country are more severe. Iran also suffers from expanding dryness and desertification which, in turn, contributes to their water woes. At times, it's a vicious circle. Furthermore, the drawdown of groundwater is causing surface subsidence of up to one-half meter per year or so in some localities. Iran may have about 10% of its electricity generation requirements come from hydropower before 2015 with another 1% or so each from wind power and biomass sources. This is a pretty good start. Clearly, the contribution from solar power could be ramped skyward. Pakistan has relied on gas and hydropower each providing about one-third of its electric power. Pakistan has been increasing reliance on turnkey oil-fuelled power plants and home furnace oil which increases emissions relative to using gas. Merely to get from a to b in Karachi, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Faisalabad, Hyderabad, Peshawar and Gujranwala, a motley collection of vehicles including countless motorcycles and two-stroke, three-wheel, motor rickshaws eject ghastly plumes of poisonous air as if there was no tomorrow. Exhaust ranges from the dark smoke of petrol burning in a poorly-tuned, inefficient engine to blue-tinged charcoal gray combustion products from lubricants or other oily constituents to whitish-gray smoke trails of leaking, burning engine coolant in dilapidated engines. Sadly, there is no tomorrow for an estimated one million Pakistani people who succumb to air pollution every year. In Lahore, they burn tires as fuel, often as a modus operandi in steel mills. How pathetic is that? Is it any wonder air quality there is abysmal? In Islamabad, people burn garbage to get rid of it. Old diesel-burning trucks add to the pall of pollution in many population centers as does the burning of solid waste. In Gujranwala, we have a fast growing gray-iron center for manufacture of metals, ceramics, textiles and more. Clearly, Pakistan needs to initiate and escalate reliance on renewable sources of energy. The epoch characterized by burning coal and other carbon-intensive fuels has already passed along with its seemingly-interminable laundry list of hidden health, well being and environmental costs. Pakistan does have plenty of vehicles running on compressed natural gas already which has been improving the situation measurably. That's very good news, and we hope use of relatively-clean natural gas continues to ramp up further, to beyond-half of all cars, light trucks, jitneys and heavy vehicles on the roads. We also have Pakistan becoming something of an electronic junk wasteland. The open smashing and burning of old computers may well result in release of toxic substances like phosphor dust and mercury from the monitors and carbon monoxide and dioxins from burning plastics that were likely treated with flame retardants when manufactured. Agricultural waste runoff, discharges of untreated sewage and industrial effluents are also big causes of pollution. Croplands, especially those more proximal to large population centers, are often contaminated by the very water used to irrigate. Pesticides and insecticides banned in many countries are still used in Pakistan. Consequently, there has been growth and spreading of aflatoxins into feed stocks sufficient to cause poultry and even large animals like buffalo to die. Environmental hazards are making large numbers of people sick long before their time with communicable diseases at the forefront of maladies. Deforestation, soil erosion and desertification add to their afflictions. Even though most agricultural land in Pakistan depends on the Indus River for water, the volume of water available is likely to diminish in future due to increased net melting of Central Asian mountain glaciers, an insidious long-term trend down of the amount of rain and snow plus a tendency to try to augment hydropower one-too-many times. Siltation of the riverbed and river bank areas arises due to the reduced velocity of flowing water. The Chenab, Jhelum, Beas, Sutluj and Ravi rivers are affected similarly. If the water volume of, and load carried by, principal water bodies is curtailed, irrigation canal and channel offshoots from those rivers jeopardizes the reliable distribution of water to sustain agriculture. There already have been shortages of potable water which may be expected to occur chronically across large areas of Pakistan. The majority of Pakistani's, perhaps as many as 90% of the entire population, do not have access to water fit to drink. Over one million Pakistani's die each year from water-borne diseases including as many as one-quarter of a million young children from diarrhea-related complications of drinking or using untreated water. Also, we have had widespread gastroenteritis outbreaks. | ||||||
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Russia,
Ukraine, Belarus: These countries have
historically been among the most energy and emissions intensive of all. This
means an inordinate amount of energy has been wasted and pollution generated per
unit of economic output. In Russia, there is
bad air pollution from defense-related activities and heavy
industry, coal-fired electric plants and vehicular emissions.
Russia exports plenty of coal and they plan to ramp up
domestic use of sordid, sulphur-ridden coal significantly, too, perhaps doubling
output or more by 2020!
This is very regressive and unfortunate because, generally speaking, Russia
has an enviable mix of more environmentally-friendly energy resources to draw on
including about one-quarter of the world's known reserves of natural gas. Russia
has also developed significant hydro and nuclear power capabilities.
Inexplicably, they lag
in adopting wind power even though there is available for harnessing across
Russia more wind energy than exists in any other country. Rather, it should be a
high priority area of development for Russia. The countries here are large geographically, in particular, vast Russia. So they can absorb a certain amount of ecological punishment before too many ill effects and impacts make it apparent a clampdown and some Yeltsin-style "shock therapy" may be required to redress the situation. The most out-of-control polluters likely belong in jail; when they get out on parole, their community service work should include time physically cleaning up ecological disasters and messes. Raging fires in Russia, notably in southern Siberia, have ratcheted-up markedly the greenhouse gas emissions toll on the atmosphere. Springtime burning of agricultural land and new areas being prepared for crops or livestock grazing is widespread throughout southern Russia, adding to the smoky, sooty haze. Russia is a top-five greenhouse gas emitter, is the largest flarer of gas in the world, and burns forests and other biomass extensively. Up to one quarter of gas associated with oil production is wasted by being flared though plans are in place to cut this to about 5% overall by 2012 or face significant financial penalties. The government wants Russians to reduce energy consumption by 40% by 2020 mostly through conservation and improving energy efficiency. Russia is currently targeting somewhere from a 10% to 25% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2020. However, this means emissions by 2020 can increase by about 10% to 25% relative to their 2007-2008 levels. They have also committed to being 50% below their 1990 amount before 2050. About two-thirds of Russian cities are afflicted with high levels of air pollution. Radioactive and otherwise toxic chemical sites, persistent organic pollutants, pesticides and other noxious chemicals are often very evident. Especially poignant is the experience in Dzerdjinsk where seemingly-medieval cauldrons still abound and spew gruesome plumes of pollutants into a dying airspace. Norilsk, a northern mining and smelting center, has historically released hideous amounts of sulfur dioxide, nickel oxides and various other heavy metal compounds into the atmosphere sufficient to knock up to 10 years off your life if you reside there. People say no trees grow for tens of kilometers around the most horrific point source polluters. Throughout Russia, a lot of garbage is still incinerated, even the toxic stuff. Large fines and a clamp down on egregious-polluting offenders have only recently been initiated in some localities. According to the city administrators, 40% of St. Petersburg's raw sewage and untreated industrial waste ends up in River Neva and Gulf of Finland. Kaliningrad's raw sewage has ended up in the Baltic Sea along with a variety of other pollutants. Volge Federal District also has many severe pollution problem areas. The Volga River is nearing ecological collapse from various wastewater injections to its watershed. Several rivers in Siberia are also heavily polluted. The coldest days of winters in Russia are reported by the British Meteorological Office to be up to four degrees Celsius warmer than during the 1950's, only a half-century ago. In Siberia, the temperature of permafrost soil is estimated to have risen by about one degree Celsius over one generation of time. This is not a pretty situation. Over the past century, average temperatures in Russia have warmed by about one-and-a-third degrees Celsius. The effects of melting permafrost are often all-too-obvious. Unfortunately, more than half the enormous land area of Russia has permafrost. There is considerable anecdotal and other evidence attesting to tree lines moving upslope in some places by many meters every year. And rail track bending and buckling. Flood risk in Russia due to progressive global warming-related rises in sea level or from storm surge events is most dire in St. Petersburg and the Arctic Ocean-facing cities of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk. In Ukraine and Belarus, soil pollution arises from overuse of pesticides and/or contamination from radioactive constituents still in the soil from Soviet-era events. Vats of poisonous pesticide were buried in many localities in an attempt to rid the stuff. However, as the containers decomposed over time the contents began leaking into the ground and groundwater. From consequences due to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear site accident in Ukraine, one-quarter million people have been afflicted with radiation-induced illnesses of various kinds, in particular, cancers. The latter have already led to the demise of about 100,000 people. Several rivers in this region also still contain high levels of radioactive particles in various locations. Look here, too to see the effects of significant coal mining and old coal-fired power plants. Prior careless, large-scale metal mining has added to the woes here-and-now for these countries. Don't go to Mariupol, Dneprodzerzhynsk or Donetsk on a holiday anytime-soon. The air, water and soil quality is abysmal across this severely-polluted swathe of Ukraine in particular. Similar to Russia, they commit to keeping greenhouse gas emissions at least 5% and perhaps 10% below 1990 levels. However, such levels would actually represent a significant increase over their 2008 amounts. | ||||||
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United States of America: The impact of the Deepwater Horizon blowout disaster in the Gulf
of Mexico is very upsetting and sickening...ecosystem degradation and destruction;
contamination and disruption of the food chain including seafood; sick and
perishing fish, shellfish, birds and other wildlife; compounded threats to biodiversity; lost jobs, enterprise
and ways of life; compromised white sand beaches, near shore property and
tourism; a horrific wasted, murky mess of frothy surface oil, thick clouds of
subsurface oil, dispersed oil globs and droplets and burnt oil residue and air
pollution; and vast quantities of heat-trapping methane dissolved in water that
inevitably, to some extent, will end up in the air, too along
with that which is vented or flared.
So this pollution whamming is also embedded with a reckless
addition of greenhouse gas
for us all to contend with. Historically, United States is the second largest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases after UK. According to the Energy Information Administration, emissions of carbon dioxide in America dropped by 7% in 2009 year over year which accounts for about four-fifths of all greenhouse gas emissions they generated during that year. However, USA remains among the very highest emitters of heat-trapping gases in per capita terms. On an absolute basis, USA has been the biggest greenhouse gas emitting country for many years and has only recently been overtaken by China. For example, in 2007, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China was responsible for 24% of all carbon dioxide emissions worldwide, the USA for 22%. Other countries each generated less than 10% of the total. USA is better-off than many countries both in terms of natural resources remaining and ecological survivability potential due to their relatively modest population density and greater ability to assimilate, re-integrate and cope with various waste streams generated. About one-third of garbage is recycled or composted so there is much room for improvement here given the sheer magnitude and scope of consumption that goes on in US. They also have some 100 million cows plus a huge number of other methane out-gassing farm animals, too. Emissions arising from land use changes still have a sizeable impact. Vast tracts of private timberlands are rezoned and subdivided in stages. Often, second homes and acreages are added amid existing forest lands. In United States, coal-driven plants still provide over 50% of electricity generated and account for about one third of all greenhouse gases each year in USA. The Energy Information Administration has reported that coal is still expected to provide nearly half of America's electric power even in 2030. We hope not. There is also the serious problem of what to do about the innumerable coal ash dumps from legacy production of coal. Over time, some of the contents of these ponds including a variety of toxic compounds are being leached out. In principle, tax-exempt bonds can still be used to finance coal power plants. However, increasingly, many applications for new coal-driven power stations are being blocked or delayed by various legal actions and the court system. Nation wide, coal-fired power generation is still responsible for as much as 40% of mercury emissions and 60% of sulfur dioxide emissions. However, nitrogen oxide from coal-powered plants must be reduced in 2009 and sulfur dioxides must be curtailed further no later than 2010. Older generation nuclear power provides about one-fifth of America's base-load electric power. We would like to see very broad diversification in the energy industry. The existence of that broad diversification contains the risk and enhances energy security. The starting point in thinking about broad diversification of energy to assure our supply of it should be something like our "10 x 10%" solution. It's one way to attempt to make a smooth circle from a rigid, prickly square of sometimes-diametrically-opposing points of view: There's an initial 10% target allocation to, or goal for, each of: 1) solar thermal and solar photovoltaic; 2) wind; 3) liquid biofuels especially from algae, seaweed and second generation cellulosic feedstocks, plus some extraneous biomass from crop residues, forestry waste, plant and grass clippings; 4) geothermal including ocean temperature and concentration gradients; 5) hydro, including run-of-river microgeneration projects; 6) tidal, wave and currents; 7) fuel cells; 8) nuclear fission and, one day, nuclear fusion; 9) natural gas, and 10) the lighter grades of oil. There, that's ten. Did we miss anything important? Not really? Okay, so in short, renewables should comprise about three-quarters of total energy requirements. Solar thermal, geothermal, biomass, fourth generation nuclear energy and conceivably fuel cells, too should progressively displace fossil fuels for the remainder and contribute to reducing intermittency thereby providing assurance of more than adequate base-load power available 24/7/365. In order of precedence, that displacement should be according to carbon intensity and pollution generated, so first we rid existing coal and heavy oil, then medium API grades of oil, etc., shale gas and lastly, some day, to have eliminated natural gas, too. Mining shale rock for low-grade, greasy oil is a desperate, fleeting, environmentally-destructive undertaking. Money could instead flow into developing solar power in the Mojave Desert, projects that are upgradeable for an eternity and draw on essentially-unlimited reserves of thermonuclear energy transmitted to us from the sun. How's that for security? Historically, acid rain has been a big problem in USA. That particular phenomenon was remedied to a significant extent in recent years but cleaning up abandoned mines remains a big task. US pipeline and refinery operators currently plan and are undertaking upwards of $50 billion or more of capital investment for new pipelines, refineries, refinery expansions, retrofitting and conversion of conventional crude facilities so they can transport and process heavy crude input from Canada and Venezuela. To the extent that heavy crude is used as feedstock and use of these dirty, sour inputs is not cut-back or halted in some areas, pollution from affected oil refineries including sulfur and metals like mercury, nickel and lead, is likely to increase markedly in US and cross-border into Canada, too. Given the scale of the US economy and the extent of trade, pollution is also vast from bunker fuel-burning ships entering their waters and diesel trucks rumbling in and out of port areas. Those emissions cocktails includes plenty of soot, particulates, nitrogen and sulfur oxides and nitryl chloride. Stricter diesel-powered emissions rules for the future have recently been announced in USA affecting vessels, boats and trains. Cruise liners, tanker and container ships anywhere near California must operate on low-sulfur diesel fuel. Due to new federal government standards set, greenhouse gas emissions emanating from and the fuel efficiency of cars and trucks both will have to improve markedly before 2016. Across fleets, an average of 35.5 miles per US gallon of fuel is required. Tailpipe pollutants generally are also in the cross-hairs of government which is great news. We very much look forward to the realization of a nation-wide, smart power grid and to one million plug-in hybrid electric or electric cars being on the roads in America before 2016. We want to see a rigorous low-carbon fuel standard applied throughout USA not only California, Oregon and some states of the northeastern and mid-Atlantic regions. Further, California has regulations mandating a reduction in carbon content of transportation fuels by 2015, and they do not accept inbound carbon-intensive energy sources anymore. This was the first low-carbon fuel standard we knew of. It recognizes the significant carbon footprint associated with first generation ethanol. This ethanol also utilizes about four times the volume of water as ethanol produced to process it from starch which is a concern. California has also pushed for a hydrogen highway including a network or hydrogen-fuelling stations. We are dismayed that these incredible liquid hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles are ready-to-go, however, potential owners in virtually every jurisdiction are still waiting for hydrogen service depot infrastructure so drivers can get from point to point before they run out of fuel. Fluorinated gases are also being regulated, use of which is being cut back. We are also fired-up about California's leading-edge green chemistry initiative. It will reveal to consumers to what extent the design, manufacture, transport and use of a product is environmentally friendly. California are also pushing for 33% of its grid-electricity to be derived from renewable sources before 2020. Their objective is to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2020. By law, cities in California must cut greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels or less by 2020. Other states such as New York and Massachusetts are also already far-along the green path. New York is targeting renewable energy to provide 30% of electricity grid power generation by 2015 and for a reduction by 30% of carbon emissions before 2030. We have emerging clean-tech jurisdictions, too such as Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Vermont, Delaware, Iowa, Florida, Hawaii, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Mississippi, Colorado and Washington where there have been bold moves to try to ramp up use of renewable energy faster. Hawaii has mandated that an astonishing two-thirds of electrical demand be satisfied by renewable or other alternative sources before 2030. Texas is likely to become a prime area for wind-generated power and solar energy too. Presently, however, Texas has a very problematic chemical soup of fossil fuel combustion emissions, petrochemicals and more to contend with. Texas can't go on generating greenhouse gases at rates comparable to all of Africa. The Midwest has historically suffered from refining and widespread use of carbon-intensive fuels. A clean fuel standard will over time face-down that huge problem by eliminating all high-carbon sources so we should have a happy ending in this region, too. There are many fuel inefficient vehicles still on the roads throughout America and plenty of whimsical driving. Plus we obviously have lots of flights that involve US locations. Jets worldwide add several percentage points to the global tab for greenhouse gases. The American Lung Association has gathered much data on metropolitan statistical areas in United States. Los Angeles and Pittsburgh have the most polluted air overall among major cities according to their analysis. Particulates including dust, soot and aerosols plague those cities plus other ones including Birmingham, Cleveland-Akron, Milwaukee and Detroit. Ground-level ozone has also been problematic in USA particularly on hotter days in congested areas of cities such as Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Louisville and Jacksonville, due to high levels of volatile organic compounds, smog and nitrous oxides. San Francisco is the first major city we know of that has implemented a strict but realistic plan towards the noble objective of eliminating the need for more landfills and incinerators. As a corollary, San Franciscans are participating en masse in recycling, composting and developing a keen sense of eco-consciousness. Plus a nutrient-rich organic fertilizer-type product is being made available for delivery to California's agriculture industry. The newly-recognized phenomenon of cold weather ozone emanating from natural gas fields or gaseous oilfields is unwelcome news. Apparently, anywhere that particular well-bore drilling chemicals mix with gas fumes from the vicinity of those types of wells plus snow-reflected sunlight leads to creation of very high levels of ozone. There also exists the emerging problem of gas reservoir fracturing chemicals that potentially, somehow could end up in groundwater. Knowing exactly what those chemicals are will make it easier to sense and trace what happens subsurface. In the US, there has (or had) been a practice of allowing heavy industry such as cement kilns to burn rubber tires as a fuel source which clearly adds to pollution woes. Tire-burning releases rubber particulates, soot, dioxins, furans, lead, cadmium, various acids and other noxious gases. We are counting on Americans to stop others from burning this hideous material and to mandate doing something else with it. And to lead the mission to find a substitute for vulcanized rubber. And to try to curtail it from being shipped as it is being now from certain countries to some developing nations to become a cheap and dirty extender in a dreadful blend of diesel fuel which is then combusted. Into our atmosphere. As the Earth rotates, the winds just might bring that air pollution back our way for us to breathe, too. Not a warm and fuzzy bedtime story for our children. Cement-makers have also released too much mercury, particulates and hydrochloric acid. US continental shelf areas have extensive anaerobic dead zones attributable in large measure to fertilizers, pesticides and other chemical runoff originating inland that ends up in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. Unnervingly, PCB's, DDT, other pesticide residues, dioxins, mercury, arsenic, boron and more still show up in many US rivers with unacceptable concentrations even though PCB's and DDT were banned long ago in the US. Sadly, there is little doubt remaining that disastrous effects from the Gulf oil spill will, at the margin, put pressure towards a significant reduction in aggregate ecological survivability characterizing the region for many years to come. US Environmental Protection Agency now has compiled a most-wanted list of environmental fugitive types which can only help enforcement of existing laws, rules and regulations. It's also on a parallel path to regulate major greenhouse gases if it comes to that but legislation is still the preferred means to prompt pollution reduction and stop climate change. We like the competitive auctions implemented in the US to boost the geothermal energy segment. USA has been the world's largest geothermal power producer. The amount they produce should increase by half or more before 2020. Various entities have been moving aggressively developing wind power, solar power, geothermal and different bio-fuels. If biomass including ethanol is tallied up along with other renewable sources, the US now has clean energy for about 7% of its overall energy needs. Growing extra canola, sunflower, rapeseed, soybeans, jatropha, miscanthus, etc. along highway, transmission line, pipeline, geophysical survey cut-lines and other marginal or line-stripped right-of-way lands is gaining momentum. In tropical and sub-tropical countries, similar actions could be undertaken with sesame, peanut, flax, coconut, cassava, jatropha and more. Entrepreneurs of America should gear up to offer what we call biofuel "land-strip strips" or "land-strip squared" participations. To create a suitable investment vehicle, land-strip strips here and there could be combined in a potpourri. Only this time, unlike the bad experience with some mortgage-backed securities, binned strips would be closely tallied, monitored and mapped. Through this green investment-driven process of strip-land upgrading to produce biofuels, as opposed to the all-too-familiar pattern worldwide of degradation of land, greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced significantly due to land use change (carbon sink) improvement and reduced use of fossil fuels in favor of biofuel. We believe such systematic cultivation of heretofore underutilized land, if undertaken on a large scale, represents exactly the kind of change, ingenuity, innovation and technology we must pursue vigorously. One day, the impact of it could seal our victory, thereby preventing us all from tipping, then perhaps plunging, headlong into some heat-sink gray-hole warp weirdness whereupon there exists a near-infinite escape velocity for us to get out of it. In short, we avert disaster by taking control of the pollution-driven climate change play before it all takes control of our destiny in some perhaps-unpredictable way. We cannot get into the realm where we had quite an inkling about it but no clear understanding, focus, will, cooperation or collective action soon enough to first stop, then reverse the unraveling of ecological survivability. With legislation pending, USA is currently targeting being about 4% below 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 whereas in 2008 they were about one-sixth beyond their 1990 total. This target equates to being 17% below 2005 levels. They also aim to be about one-fifth below their 1990 amount of greenhouse gases by 2025 and to emit one-third less heat-trapping gases versus 1990 before 2030. At that juncture, fossil fuels is still projected to provide about two-thirds of total energy, nuclear one-sixth, and renewable sources one-sixth. By the mid-century mark, the anticipation currently is to reduce heat-trapping gases by 83% below 2005 emissions which equates to somewhere in the range of two-thirds to three-quarters relative to the situation during 1990. On the algebra front, we hesitate to believe USA can achieve such targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions at the same time as they continue along the coal pathway and anticipate ramping-up importation of carbon-laden heavy crude from Canada by two hundred percent or more by the 2030's. In terms of absolute capacity, US is already the world's largest wind power but that total is still modest compared to its overall energy use. Wind currently accounts for only about 2% of their grid power. However, US now has rules for offshore wind and wave development which will spur development activity. The Department of Energy has said it's conceivable wind-driven turbines could comprise 20% of electric power generation in US by 2030. USA is aiming to double its use of solar and wind energy by 2012 and to have 25% of power grid energy come from renewable sources by 2025. The majority of electrical generating capacity being newly-added these days is powered by either renewable sources or natural gas. A geophysical paper is raising the specter of much greater coastal submergence risk in the long run in US than previously had ever been articulated. East coast cities including Boston, New York, Jacksonville and Miami are especially vulnerable to ongoing increases in sea level. Higher short term rise components due to storm and tidal surges superimpose on top of the long term rise occurring as a consequence of global warming, thermal expansion of water and polar icecap melting. It makes for rather spooky reading and we hope someone finds a flaw in their data, analysis and/or hypothesis rather than having to think of things like alteration of the Earth's axis of rotation as a result of catastrophic ice sheet melting. | ||||||
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Canada: Canada and Australia export vast volumes of coal,
heavy oil and lower-carbon fossil fuels to China, United States and other
countries, outsize amounts of
carbon-intensive fossil fuels relative to the size of their populations. They
also are heavily involved heavily in mineral extraction and processing
activities and are significant producers of aluminum, an energy intensive
undertaking. Australia and Canada stand out again
and again as being among, or are, the highest per capita emitters and polluters
among major industrialized countries. Canada and Australia are
relatively-sparsely populated but have sizeable resource-based economies that
are generators of enormous quantities of pollutants. On a per capita basis,
both rank among the world's worst offenders as emitters of greenhouse gases and
as generators of waste generally.
High levels of vehicular emissions and
industrial pollutants are especially noticeable in larger, congested metropolitan
areas. Rush hours stink!
Their saving grace is having modest populations versus the
vastness of the physical geography. This has meant that, so far at least,
ecosystems in many areas of their country-sides have not been pressured by
people beyond their natural ability to replenish or rejuvenate. Both countries have
belatedly made somewhat significant moves into wind power. We sincerely hope much
greater use of renewable energy takes place and that it happens in an
abbreviated time frame.
Performance with respect to the Kyoto Protocol has been fairly disastrous: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have gone up by more than one-quarter since 1990, Australia's by more than three-quarters since 1990. If these countries do not pay-up to cover their own shortfalls with respect to this agreement as Japan willingly did, there would seem to be a problem. They appear to believe commitments made regarding reducing their throw-off of heat-trapping gases is some kind of high-level game. In this cartoon, they realize there is Sylvester the Cat and Tweety Bird, but ostensibly they also believe there is no watchdog with teeth like Brutus. So fossil fuel mandarins operating in these countries together with their investors, advisors and financiers easily influence politicians and regulators. We have been quietly hoping Canada's tough-minded bankers would smarten-up whoever needs to be smartened-up regarding Canada's disproportionate overinvestment in the tar sands. Much greater emphasis on renewable energy is needed. The country is lagging way back in this great green race of the new millennium. Furthermore, Canada does not need the oilsands to survive and prosper. It would be a responsible thing to do to work out a way oilsands projects could be held at bay as a sunk cost, strategic reserve type operation to be fired-up only in the event of there being a security issue affecting Canada, NAFTA/NORAD, NATO, etc. such that more energy was needed pronto. In this sense, it should be a standby-reserve. Beyond that, we think opinion worldwide, including among the Canadian and American public, is solidly-against the oilsands of Alberta. We believe a public referendum concerning the future of the tar sands in Canada would establish exactly. Due to the unending controversy around the world and in Canada regarding further development of the oilsands, why don't we let Canadians have their say about it during the next election? Citizens everywhere expect their powers-that-be to live-up to international commitments, for example the Kyoto Protocol, and to bear their fair share of responsibility for legal agreements, not to shirk same. The players in heavy oil and coal have not paid their pro rata share of Kyoto liability based on the pollution generated historically by their activities. Whose bill is that, who is obligated to pay it, the people of Canada? The Alberta oil sands are widely-considered to be among the highest cost, energy and pollution intensive fossil-fuel projects remaining on Earth. As time goes by and tar sands extraction descends further into the abyss, each increment of production becomes more and more carbon-intensive. Very few people speak of the possibility that carbon capture and underground sequestration can overcome this burden. Alberta, with their vast windfall from triple-digit oil prices, should have been aggressively diversifying into renewable sources of energy a generation ago. They failed to do it and even today are reluctant. This in our new epoch where either multilateral political pressure, carbon markets and/or, in our view, the inevitability of a global externality tax (GET) type mechanism will all-but ensure there is no viable future for Alberta's oil sands. With climate-can't-change looming on the horizon as an imperative in virtually every country, it may not be long before there are no refineries left that can upgrade grimy, sulfurous heavy crude because the jurisdiction where they operate has effectively or actually shut them down. Rather than the dirty oil, we think many people in western United States would want the fresh, clean water that is forgone from the watershed once used in processing of bitumen. Canada produces about 2% of global greenhouse gases but has only 0.5% of the world's population. Coal power still accounts for generation of about one-sixth of all electricity in Canada. Its use is very prevalent in certain jurisdictions such as the Province of Alberta, however, old coal is to be shut down in stages in Canada. Making use of any coal as a source of energy is a noxious undertaking with smoky pollution along the lines of burning any other carbonaceous biomass. The best idea is to leave such stuff where it is and forget about it. This is the new millennium not the dark ages. So Canada has relatively-less problems from coal mining and burning than Australia but huge externalities from oil sands development in northern Alberta. Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 26% since 1990. Alberta's emissions are up a whopping 50% since 1990 and there is no end in sight, no credible plan to rehabilitate these environmental fingerprints either in the short or intermediate term future. The current target of the Canadian federal government is still for Canada to be 17% below the 2005 amount of emissions by 2020. This equates to being about 3% above Canada's 1990 magnitude of emissions. Such a state would be very different than reducing greenhouse gases to 6% below 1990 levels before 2012 which was their obligation under the Kyoto Protocol. The long term objective is, before the mid-century mark, to cut emissions by 60% relative to that of 2006. We do not think even these very modest Canadian goals are achievable unless and until oilsands production is curtailed. Sadly, Canada could have been a significant wind, geothermal and solar power by now but for whatever set of reasons has repeatedly chosen to snub vigorous development of renewable sources of energy. Rather like a punch-drunk boxer never knowing when to quit, Canada staggers further down the heavy fossil fuel road, seemingly-oblivious to the drastic consequences inevitably being emblazoned on future generations. Bear in mind that once known ecological costs are included in project analysis, a huge amount of these oilsands "reserves" are actually only a resource. As such, extraction should have been curtailed during the 1990's. The Alberta heavy oil industry notion of a tripling of 2009 synthetic crude and bitumen production levels by 2029 strikes us as being bizarre in the real-world circumstances we find ourselves in. Emissions must be brought under control imminently, not in another generation or so. Unfortunately, as we have seen here, carbon capture and sequestration has not been demonstrated to be feasible to bring oilsands gross emissions under control. All this means the vast land and water area involved in the ecological strip-down here is more of a base station for, or film clip of, what an end-of-the-world scene looks like than parklands and campgrounds we take our kiddies to for fun. Our view is tar sands bitumen operations constitute a kind of gruesome, gluey-molasses, alchemy-type undertaking. Only the proponents are not trying to transmute baser metals into gold like loopy medieval chemists during the 1600's with their fire-witches slowly turning grinding wheels in the Court of the Crimson King©. Rather, by contrast, they are attempting to process a tarry, gritty, primeval bitumen sludge into the current clean, green specification for space-age low-carbon fuel. And to have to achieve that in an ecological strait jacket affecting stripping, trucking, extraction, hauling, upgrading, piping, refining and transport to markets. Good luck with that mission improbable. A few more added dilemmas: air masses and water bodies cross borders. Alberta alone accounts for more than one third of total absolute emissions in all of Canada. That total was before consideration of emissions from rampaging forest fires, dryness and drought that struck the prairies in 2009 for the second time in seven years. Much power still comes from using coal as the fuel source. Strip mining of the Alberta tar sands has resulted in loss of huge tracts of boreal and other northern forests and wetlands. Habitat loss is displacing wildlife. Species such as woodland caribou and millions of migratory birds are said to be at risk of displacement, endangerment or an early demise due to missing and degraded boreal forest and muskeg area, the implications from tar sands operations, logging and other natural resource extraction activities. Loss of temperate and boreal forest in Canada and Russia is in the same category of seriousness as lost rainforest in Brazil. Something like a quarter million caribou have already vanished from Canada's north. Boreal forest and peat bog wetlands could prove critical in combating global warming. Their removal adds significantly and cumulatively to carbon emissions and other environmental impacts. In the event of four degrees Celsius average global warming, this region may warm by something like eight degrees Celsius which could trigger a worldwide ecological catastrophe emanating from northern Canada and Russia. Various heavy minerals and high-sulfur organic compounds coat oily sand grains, the raw bitumen. Tar sands operators collectively are emitting an overabundance of poisonous hydrogen sulfide gas, toxic nickel and lead particles and about three times as much greenhouse gases as conventional crude oil production. Plus, as an offshoot of mining activity, they are generating gigantic, seeping, leaking, creeping, moonscape-like "holding" ponds of toxic naphthenic acids, carbolic acid, cyanide, xylene, benzene, methyl benzene or toluene (a known female reproductive toxicant), and other volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, oil, mercury, arsenic, copper, chromium, cobalt, zinc, iron, lead, other heavy metals and sulfur-laden tailings. One "holding-for-what" toxic lake is considered to be the second largest dam structure on Earth after the Three Gorges Dam in China. Untold numbers of migratory and local birds including mallard ducks and loons have died after landing in these hydrocarbon-fouled "waters". Information recently released by the Alberta government indicate the nature of the ecological demise of the Athabasca River. Tar sands operators are also using prodigious amounts of fresh water resources as if they have no value, up to about five barrels of fresh water for every barrel of heavy oil that ultimately results. Fresh water has significant inelastic demand value these days but I guess its considered to be another freebee for tar sands investors. Up to 10% or 15% of an entire river's water, the exact percentage allowed depending on the overall volume of river water flowing, can be siphoned off for use in these Neanderthal tar sands projects. Most of that water ends up in holding ponds at a later date, hopelessly polluted. Holding ponds that leak and leach, some say, billions of liters of this contaminated water every year. Interceptor ditches and wells miss containment of untold millions of liters of contaminated water every passing day, water that contains too much chlorine, arsenic, mercury, hydrocarbons and more toxins from tailings. Where does the increasingly salty and contaminated water end up? In-situ bitumen extraction via boreholes and horizontal drilling may use less fresh water than strip-mining. Unfortunately, these methods of extraction are generally associated with even more intense greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production. Environmentally speaking, the energy input required for these projects rises in a near-ridiculous manner towards the potential chemical energy of the output gained. Who would invest in something this far gone? Fish caught in the Athabasca River have suffered abnormalities, deformities, mutations, tumor or polyp growths and other deformation from contaminated, dirty water. Up to one-quarter of the fish there have some kind of lesion or lump. According to people who live in the area, fish in nearby lakes also may have similar maladies. The potential for andogynous fish, that is one fish having both male and female traits present, clearly exists because the pollution is wreaking havoc with their endocrine systems. Whitefish may be reddish in color from ingestion of various toxins in the water. Apparently, the Athabasca Chipewayn and Mikisew Cree aboriginals living nearby are being afflicted with a rare bile duct cancer, the incidence for which may be attributable to pollution generated at the tar sands. There have been abnormally-high incidences of biliary tract, lymphatic system and blood cancers affecting people who live downstream from tar sand operations. Airborne sulfur from north-central Alberta sources mostly ends up in the neighboring province of Saskatchewan where acid rain has become a significant problem. At what point does the needle in the gauge bend towards unsustainable development? Apparently not yet, as Alberta has ambitious plans for further oil sands extraction and greatly-expanded bitumen upgrading capacity. Reliable information reveals that oil sands operators collectively, far from cutting emissions and pollution, are instead on-course to escalate sulfur dioxide emissions by about one-third; increase nitrous oxide throw-offs by one-quarter; and up the out-gushing of particulate matter and volatile organic compounds by about two-thirds. All of those levels of pollution awaits us, and have been slated to occur here before 2019. High-carbon fuels such as asphaltene, oily coke and the bitumen itself are now routinely being used in extraction and processing of bitumen. So as of sometime during 2008 for most tar sands mining operations, we now also have the consequences of wide-scale combustion of junk fuel to grapple with whereas prior to that relatively clean-burning natural gas had been used as an energy source. There is even a kind of antediluvian production that uses dreadful pitch tar residuum as the fuel with the justification that it helps the operation save more money. Corrosive solvents used to assist steam-driven extraction do not paint a pretty picture ecologically either. As time goes by and each scoop of goop becomes incrementally-more difficult to extract, the economics deteriorate further and the environmental impacts accumulate. Net energy from the combustion-intensive tar sands after construction, strip-mining, processing, upgrading, piping, refining and transporting is not so good. Just cooking gummy, goopy tar sands in the initial extraction procedure consumes the energy equivalent of about one-third of every barrel produced. Vast greenhouse gas emissions generated from heating the bitumen have concentrations sufficiently-diffuse that its possible to efficiently capture only a small proportion of the noxious gases. Further, according to detailed studies, the life-cycle emissions totals of some greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide actually increases by more than one-third due to the various energy-intensive processes involved in underground carbon sequestration. So much for carbon capture and sequestration. What's more, as we have outlined in numerous "Comment" sections at this website, underground carbon sequestration poses unacceptable risks and the legal ramifications are vast, murky and unsettled. The technology, monitoring and feasibility of it have not been established on a commercial scale. Further, some knowledgeable observers say less than 10% of greenhouse gases generated in oil sands mining, upgrading, piping, refining, transport and final use of this carbon-intensive product will ever be feasible to capture and store. Considering only the upstream activities to the upgrading stage, at best only about one-third of emissions will be feasible for carbon capture and sequestration. Clearly, that would mean the public are wasting their money putting it into tar sands carbon capture and sequestration ventures because there is not likely to ever be an economic or safe way technically to mechanically, chemically or environmentally engineer a low-tar, "light" brand of tar sands oil. In Canada at least, governments and big, affected corporations team-up to fund organizations that produce certain, select information and spin to try to alter public opinion. We find this to be a peculiar practice that taxpayers dollars would be spent this way. To date in Canada, the majority of the public have been consistently-polled that they now oppose further development of polluting, carbon-intensive projects such as the oil sands and coal developments. In apparent desperation, a heavy oil industry group in the Province of Alberta has produced an "independent" report funded by the government of Alberta that is recommending expenditure of the extraordinary sum of $3 billion a year of public money to pay for the pollution and reclamation associated with ongoing production at the tar sands. With all due respect, this strikes us as being preposterous, more like a tragic-comedy than a serious proposition. Here is an industry that's been operating for nearly two generations in Alberta and have not yet successfully reclaimed and rejuvenated any operating area to its prior ecological state, or anything approaching same. Thousands of jobs could be created overnight just cleaning up the mess in northern Alberta. We are investigating what we believe to be a much better way forward than this. We know, science is hard. It sure helps if you have had a great deal of experience with it. If you have not and do not want to, well, er', maybe it's time to try some other line of work. We suspect oil companies involved in the tar sands already are very aware of the downsize risks as we have described at length on this web page and elsewhere. We also doubt Edmontonians are going to want an attempt at a force-fed burial of gargantuan quantities of carbon dioxide anywhere near their place. Finally, the time delays are unacceptable with little happening on-the-ground for up to a decade. So, in short, we have at a minimum a quintuple knockout situation - uneconomic, too slow timelines for underground sequestration, too risky, too water-intensive and still way too-polluting an endeavor. We believe Joe Canadian public could conceivably end up with a huge loss or somewhere near a fat-zero return on investment here. Moreover, the opportunity cost associated with any such failure is going to be painful for Canadians to face: Investing significant money in renewable energy sources is proving in many parts of the world to be the essential way forward on the path of progress to ensure advancement of society including relatively risk-free reduction in pollution and maintaining a grip on our climate. We recognize the technology, monitoring and feasibility of hydrocarbon reservoirs with in-situ flooding and flushing of the reservoir using water, steam, natural gas, carbon dioxide or solvents to enhance recovery has been shown over the years but that is not what we are talking about here. It's relatively easy to inject into a reservoir where there is little added formation or fluid pressure and lots of well boles to utilize to measure and maintain pressure and other physical parameters as need be. Risk of blowout, leakage, induced tremors and so on is much reduced relative to the usual wildcat carbon sequestration operation being contemplated. There is a known seal otherwise it would not have been a reservoir in the first place. Furthermore, after about one year or so of storing carbon dioxide generated in Alberta in old hydrocarbon reservoirs, were that ever to take place, there would be no more physical reservoir capacity to store any additional volumes of captured emissions. So then what? Even companies involved in initial demonstration pilot projects of carbon storage and underground sequestration such as the Swedish utility, Vattenfall recognize that the whole effort is only a stopgap measure, that it will not be a permanent solution to the climate change imperative. Maybe they know already that more than three-quarters of carbon dioxide "stored" in hydrocarbon reservoirs has been found in the water not in mineralized rock. This means the risk of it escaping where it is stored along permeable zones, micro-seismic cracks, fractures and faults is much higher. This could be due to natural, drilling-induced or formation pressure-induced phenomena such as minor tremors or induced seismicity, faulting, fracturing, effervescence, chemical reactions or fluid mobility and migration arising from gravitational forces, heat flow, differential solubility and/or pressure gradients. Carbon dioxide gas or liquid pressure inherent in the process of injection to the subsurface tends to weaken any existing faults, fractures, cracks and other zones of weakness. We don't want to be obnoxious but should we play the requiem for these oil sands projects yet? Alberta's Energy Resources Conservation Board does now have the power to shut down oil sands operators who fail to manage tailings or execute reclamation responsibilities as agreed. However, after more than a generation, only one mined area has been finally-reclaimed but in a state quite different than the original setting. Reclamation activity will at best come to a steady state where a new tailings pond can be created if an old one is cleaned up. Who is going to pay for environmental liabilities and when does it start? Incredibly, the answer appears to be the general public in Canada even though they generally do not realize that yet. Furthermore, a clear majority of Canadians are for halting oil sands expansion now but that so far does not appear to affect the intentions of the powers-that-be in Canada. Integrated oil and gas companies with significant oil sands operations face large and uncertain costs and contingent liability for reclamation and carbon capture and sequestration. They appear to be counting on burying or off-loading pollution downstream and downwind into the "natural" background to help ensure the ongoing viability of tar sands projects. Ontario is grand central station for many manufacturing and refining entities. Hamilton, Ontario is a gritty steel-making hub. In Windsor, just over the bridge from Detroit, diesel fumes accumulate in the sorry atmosphere of a mega-transit, border-crossing bottleneck for Canada-US tractor-trailer commerce. Happily, Ontario now has leading-edge feed-in tariffs to encourage accelerated development of renewable energy. Ontario also leads in Canada by virtue of its plans to get off of coal-fired electrical generation altogether by 2014. They aim to replace the shortfall with renewable energy sources that come on-stream such as from offshore wind power projects in Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. British Columbia, Quebec and Manitoba's hydropower capacity have been bright spots for many years. Canada in fact has excess, exportable hydropower which also satisfies almost 60% of domestic electricity production needs. The current goal for Canada is to have 90% of electricity come from non-emitting sources by 2025. Quebec unto itself is on a par with much of Europe in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and leads Canada in this regard. They aim to be 20% below their 1990 level of emissions by 2020. Vehicle emissions standards are leading edge, similar to that of California. Quebec has been the scene for many of Canada's most polluted rivers, the cause of which is attributed to excess fertilizer, manure, pesticides, industrial effluent and other waste that ends up in the waterways. Chum and sockeye salmon runs have dwindled in 2009 in BC and this is at least partly traceable to climate change. As fish disappear, so do bears including grizzlies, black bears and white-coated spirit bears. Wildfires rampaged widely in BC due to summer of 2009 heat and crackling dryness. Clearly, tourists who seek the great outdoor escape to BC's wild areas are not going to like what they hear at this point. Obviously, extensive cost-cutting, convenience gas flaring by oil and gas company operators in northeastern BC is going to augment Canada's greenhouse gas woes. Whoever is doing it should have been taxed yesterday for it not at some future date. Hopefully, expanded hydropower capacity in BC will lessen the need for more fossil fuels because, again, the heat-trapping fumes from everyone burning more and more fossil fuels is, in stages, doing us all in. All also includes our children's children who unfortunately are not present now to have their say in these matters. So they are reduced to counting on others to think about what their lives are going to be like. Canada has a big problem dealing with mining effluent. Some are dumbfounded to realize natural lakes can through some sleight of regulation be transformed as a convenience to mining interests into designated mining tailings dump sites. Just a reminder - trout and many other species of plants and animals live in those lakes and rivers, and people eat the fish. Beyond this issue, many known toxins outlawed in EU, US and other jurisdictions are still used commercially in Canada. The safety of chemicals, food, food additives and consumer products generally should be assured before same ends up in the Canadian marketplace with Canadians effectively serving as unwitting subjects in the experiments. One entire class of common birds, the aerial insectivores are in dramatic decline in Canada. What's happening to the whip-poor-wills among others? Biologists apparently have not yet pinpointed exactly why this loss is occurring but undoubtedly could make some unsurprising inspired guesses. Our guess is it's a result of lost habitat from forests being decimated by strip-mining, other extractive industries, infestations, wild fires, and more. The situation has reached a point in Canada where observers are saying Canada's forests are now collectively considered to be a net source of, not sink for, greenhouse gases. It will take a generation to turn that around even if a concerted effort begins now. The coldest days of winters in Canada are reported by the British Meteorological Office to be up to four degrees Celsius warmer than just 50 years ago. Little wonder Canadians cannot seem to kill off the pine beetle infestation which has wiped out about half of BC's trees and is still on the march in BC and Alberta. As we all know from breathing forest fire smoke, burning wood is a very noxious undertaking and results in significant releases of greenhouse gases, black carbon and more. Incinerating wood is very inefficient and obviously it can take a generation or more to grow a replacement for that log burning in that fireplace. Its a far cry from being carbon neutral and the same can be said for burning leaf logs. But we think wood-pelletizing for bio-fuel oil; production of bio-butanol or other liquid biofuel from sawdust, wood dust, twigs, leaves, wood chips and cellulosic waste material; non-conventional biomass processing and biochar options need to be investigated and pursued to spawn new, forest-green industry segments and to salvage leftovers from dead or diseased trees, woody waste material, sewage and other organics and materials still put in landfills. We do not believe plain-vanilla aerobic burning of wood chips is a sustainable course of action nor is high temperature gasification of various junk. Pyrolysis, use of pyrolyzers and pyrolitic processes represent the new mantra in dealing with many kinds of waste, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions including recovery of methane gas for use as fuel not venting directly into the air. Huge, high-tech autoclaves now exist to handle some of the colossal load of garbage still generated by our throw-away society. Any process of combustion of biomass for energy has to be analyzed very carefully, on a case to case basis, to determine the joint economic and ecological feasibility of a project proposal. On a happier note, Canada has been making good progress forcing the pace of transition to biofuel blending and improved fuel efficiency. Use of ethanol in gasoline is spreading quite quickly. During 2011, Canada is also to have implemented a 5% biodiesel requirement which will lessen pollution from petroleum-based diesel fuel. As we see it, the role and duty of governments everywhere at a time like this is to carry the ball up-field and be willing to straight-arm each and every opposing private interest that tries to stop, tackle and prevent them from doing what is so evidently in the public interest. Because these same actions also enhance our ecological survivability, Mother Nature insists on such wise, healthy ways. | ||||||
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Egypt, Bangladesh: Many people from these
two countries live on or near huge deltas, that is, very close to or at sea
level. Therefore, flooding of vast low-lying land including agricultural
heartlands of the Nile and Ganges River delta areas may occur at virtually any
time, submerging vast food crop areas in the process. Water-based diseases and
contamination abound in both these countries. In Egypt, one
third of the population live on the Nile River delta and every major city is by
or close to the Nile. Given how adverse weather
and a rise in sea level has already impacted Bangladesh, Egyptians must
also be especially anxious about how
climate change may eventually cause, or contribute to, a series of calamities or
catastrophe. These two nations illustrate how poverty,
overpopulation pressure, desertification, increased salinity and natural hazards combine to overwhelm
fragile ecosystems. The abject poor cannot lose anything else or catastrophe
will strike. The ongoing encroachment of sea level, increased likelihood of
flash flooding of mega-delta areas and further salting of water will
inevitably affect their food supply. Saline inundation infiltrates the
groundwater and wells up from below parching the land and ruining already-scarce natural, fresh
water supplies. Egypt has developed solar-powered desalination plants to start
counteracting the problem. They are also involved in the futuristic Desertec
solar power initiative involving Europe. This is a tremendous opportunity to
ramp up renewable energy use and grid power export capability across North
Africa.
Moreover, Egypt has already planned for wind-driven power
capacity of seven gigawatts to be available before 2020. That would be
sufficient to generate about one-eighth of their current grid electricity
providing some relief to the untenable situation now where they remain 85%
dependent on burning fossil fuels to drive electric-power plants. Before 2020,
20% of electricity may be generated from renewable sources of energy in Egypt
including wind and solar power; that proportion of renewable energy matches the
objective set for member states of the European Union. One-sixth or so of the land area of Egypt, including Alexandria and Port Said, is said to be at high risk of being submerged due to a sea level rise of no more than about one meter, a distinct possibility before 2050. This would likely involve transgression of the Mediterranean Sea across an average of about 65 kilometers of land parallel to the current coastline. Very little of Egypt's land is arable and most of that is near the Nile Delta which, according to the aforementioned scenario, would also be partially-submerged to the tune of perhaps 15% of its current extent. Egypt also has a challenging air pollution problem especially near metropolises. Mass transit in major cities would help immeasurably as would reducing a three-quarters share of fossil fuel use to power their production of electricity. Renewable energy should be a big phenomenon here. Mere conversion of various plant and equipment to natural gas from higher carbon content fuels is not by itself going to resolve issues connected to, or impacts arising from, global warming. We suggest the ancient agricultural practice of burning leftover rice straw following harvesting should instead be to gather up the remains for use as fertilizer or animal feed or as feedstock for production of a new bio-fuel. Civic garbage is routinely burned by residents and businesses. Cairo has an appalling problem with sunlight-dimming atmospheric brown clouds, ugly carcinogenic mixtures of soot, black carbon, lower stratosphere (bad) ozone and other particulate matter that persists. Its air quality is said to be the worst of any city in Africa. We suggest Egypt not listen to "green" entrepreneurs and corporate salesmen types who are known to try to gain a commercial advantage by parading the idea that burning any kind of biomass is a practice good for the environment. We are for accelerating the migration of millions of people from submerging island economies and very vulnerable, way-overpopulated countries such as Bangladesh to other richer, higher-elevation nations. There already exists migration pressure to places still having relatively abundant natural resources and potential for ecological survivability. People universally tend to want to leave behind unbearable threats and consequences arising from natural hazards, extreme weather, global warming, air, water and soil pollution loads. In 2007, despite having in place an elaborate safety system including sirens and refuge towers, Bangladesh suffered a major cyclone that resulted in huge loss of life, chaos and the displacement of tens of millions of people. If you live on or near the Sundarbans and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, the world's largest delta, that traverses Bangladesh and southeast India, you are already a victim of climate change. The southern islands here are already progressively-dipping beneath encroaching saltwater, shrinking available arable land not to mention a place to live. Each year an estimated 100 square kilometers is lost to the sea. Khulna, Chittagong and Cox's Bazar are highly vulnerable to natural disasters being not far from the front lines of climate change. Warming, thermal expansion of water and rise of sea level is now noticeably affecting the Bay of Bengal. 20% of Bangladeshi's land area could be lost by mid-century due to transgression by the ocean and flooding events also involving unusually-high volumes of melt-water tumbling down from the Himalayas. Scientists at Dhaka University estimate that before 2050, 35 million people in the country risk becoming internally-displaced climate refugees. This implies an average rate of about one million people per year in Bangladesh whose lives will be disrupted perhaps to the point of no return. Bengal tigers in the area do not like this "squeeze play" either and are becoming nastier towards people. Nor would we want to run-up against an Indian python, a species that is also on-the-ropes in this region. A combination of global rising sea level and deltaic subsidence fuels the rate of submergence. Ongoing subsidence in many inland and coastal areas around the world occurs due to a myriad of factors. Factors include increased sediment load, increased structural load from cities, saltwater ingression and progressive loss of support from fresh water once contained underground. Due to the complications, the dynamics here are most often left out of equations about climate-change-induced global rise of sea level. In Bangladesh, ground water tables are increasingly being depleted to lower and lower levels as more and more people search for and utilize fresh water from aquifers. According to the government of Bangladesh, it plans to plant 100 million trees as a natural way to try to reduce the negative impact of storms, tidal surges, floods, salt incursion and droughts. Hopefully, this action will help to stem the worrisome decline in rice paddy production As the level of salt for crops to choke down increases over time, more and more rice farmers may have to look to other endeavors such as planting date palm trees or harvesting submerged vegetation such as seaweed. Arsenic contamination of groundwater including well-water is a widespread affliction, so widespread that it affects at least 30 million people. As many as 100 million people are at risk of developing arsenicosis (poisoning from arsenic). Apparently, arsenic contamination of water up to nearly one part per million of arsenic is treatable effectively using the innocuous bacteria Lactobacillus acidophilus. At least, there should be arsenic filtration before people drink this water. Where there exists the power of knowledge, understanding and progress, it seems, hope is always alive. Bangladeshi's that opt to drink surface water are frequently afflicted with a variety of gastro-intestinal illnesses. Diarrhea and diarrhea-related diseases have reached epidemic proportions in parts of Bangladesh. With virtually any river in Bangladesh, there may be river bank and estuary erosion and switching morphology at certain times of the year thereby displacing nearby residents and spreading the polluted contents of the river onto the adjacent land areas. Chemicals and waste dumped into rivers in Bangladesh include DDT, other pesticides, animal hide and skin trimmings, grime, grease, oil, chlorine, mercury, chromium, sulphate, ammonia and copious amounts of chemical fertilizers from agricultural run-off. The Buriganga River is said to be close to being devoid of life. However, there is a massive dredging and clean-up of it during 2010 which we hope will result in its rehabilitation. Other rivers such as the Shitalakhya, Turag, Balu, Bhairab and Norai are also ecologically null and void. Chemical contamination and microbial oxidation has become so concentrated, there remains virtually no dissolved oxygen content to sustain life forms. These rivers are black, not blue, and often have the consistency of motor oil. In and around Hazaribagh, a center for the dyeing, tannery and textile industry, the water is really not water at all. Rather, it's an abominable chemical concoction of agricultural chemical residues, poisonous industrial liquid waste and other effluent, residential solid waste, other garbage and raw sewage. Other industrial centers such as Narayanganj, Gazipur, Rajshahi City and Tejgaon are nearly as odious. Living organisms including us are mostly water. We need fresh water every week to survive. What future do the people have here if water quality is this pathetic? Many freshwater fish are on the verge of extinction or have disappeared altogether as a consequence mainly of water pollution. Siltation is creating new terrain in places but is fragmenting and eliminating waterways that were once habitat for fish and transportation corridors for people. We suggest farmers try placing live ducks throughout their paddy fields as a substitute for pesticides, fertilizer and use of more water. Cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna are plugged with old-junk buses and trucks that belch noxious fumes from diesel fuel combustion. The concentration of lead in the air in Dhaka is an order of magnitude greater, that is ten times greater, than the environmental standard set. So we have very high levels of particulate matter mixed in with carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, cyanide, polycyclic organics, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen dioxide, lead and sulfur. Other big contributors to air pollution are petroleum-diesel electricity generators and mostly coal-fired brick-producing kilns. Fuel sources, including for cookstoves in Bangladesh, may include any of petroleum-based diesel fuel, wood, coal, charcoal, kerosene, dung, crop residues, polythene, even rubber tires. With combustion like this, is it any wonder particulates have been blamed for various cancers, kidney, lung and vascular diseases? Bangladeshi's have indeed absorbed haymaker lefts, roundhouse rights and innumerable jabs. But now glimmers of hope come from 150 million kilometers away, from the star of our solar system. By 2013, as many as 10 million people in Bangladesh may have installed and be utilizing modest-cost, rooftop solar power systems. Millions of citizens who did not have reliable electricity, or had none at all, are increasingly turning to the Earth's shining star, the sun, to brighten their futures. Bangladesh is now also aiming for 10% of electricity to be derived from renewable sources of energy especially solar power. Further, breathing is becoming easier for those involved as droves of dreadful kerosene-burning lamps are being junked in the wake of this change. More and more obnoxious, noxious fuel dealers and salesmen are finding themselves looking for something else to do. In fact, it's better to do nothing at all than cause eco-calamity like this. | ||||||
|
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman: Saudi Arabia
has had to deal with all the challenges that come with being the world's number one
producer and exporter of oil. That includes being among the top 20 emitters of
greenhouse gases on this planet and having a legacy of gas flaring, oil spills and
degradation of coral reefs and the near-shore environment. Water is very much
lacking in the desert kingdom but they can very well afford to operate
energy-inefficient desalination plants to assure themselves of supply. In our
view, the grotesque pollution generated by oil tankers means the importer and
exporter are equally responsible for the entirety of that waste stream. Saudi
Arabia is now investing a lot in solar power development. They currently have a target for 7% of
domestic energy needs to come from renewable sources
before 2020 which is a welcome beginning to ending their drastic over-reliance
on hydrocarbons. Bahrain has many of the same issues as Saudi Arabia to deal with. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita have been sky-high. Traffic-congested and industrial areas of Manama reek with tailpipe exhaust and smokestack emissions. Ground level ozone also enters the country from elsewhere. Hazy fossil fuel pollution makes powering air-conditioners more problematical, a conspicuous consumption event. Ma'ameer is known for its petrochemical, steel and cement manufacturing but also for its elevated incidence of cancer and birth defects. Oman's carbon emissions have been sizeable on a per capita basis. Like Saudi Arabia and other countries where there exists limited land area that is not desert or subject to ongoing desertification, Oman is operating and consuming far beyond the rate which can be sustained by the natural systems of their useful land base. Oman, however, does have peridotite rocks in abundance at the surface which, upon contact, naturally converts carbon dioxide present in the air into various mineral solids. | ||||||
|
Poland, Czech Republic,
Estonia: These
countries have been
environmental calamity areas in the past due in large measure to heavy use of
coal, oil shale and toxic metallurgical operations. This led to horrid air pollution, acid
rain, water pollution and degradation of the forests. And you may think that
maybe that would....and you would be wrong - Poland is still angling for more
coal production and use even though over 90% of their
electricity generation arises from coal combustion. Almost a tonne of carbon
dioxide gas ends up in the atmosphere for every megawatt of electricity they
generate. From places like Belchatow and Katowice, fumes from mining and burning
lignite coal waft into the air. Other ancient industries like textiles in Lodz
pollute air, soil and water. The nearby Baltic Sea has vast ecologically-dead zones that are
currently the most extensive on Earth. Periodic infusions of cyanobacteria turn
parts of the Baltic Sea brown and goopy, choked with algae blooms. Various
dioxins persist in the Baltic Sea. Czech Republic is about 60% dependent on coal for electric power and is sporting one of the highest emissions growth rates in the European Union (EU). Ostrava, a gritty coal and steelmaking hub, along with the also-heavily-industrialized Karvina, are among the most polluted places in Central Europe. Residents there are protesting what they have to breathe every day - debilitating concentrations of dust, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, you name it. Soil contamination in the country from reckless industrial practices of bygone days is still widespread, threatening drinking water purity even in Prague. Air quality in the Moravia-Silesia region and Prague metro area is also poor most of the time. So bad in the latter case that Prague has authority to halt inflow of traffic to congested areas altogether if the need arises based on escalated concentrations of particulates in the atmosphere. The EU's response has been to allow these wanton polluters to continue without significant monetary or other consequences until as late as 2020. How sickening that the days of free, egregious polluting are so obviously still with us. Estonia has a very large carbon footprint relative to the size of their population. Emissions increased a whopping 15% in 2007! Estonia's carbon-intensive economy is still nearly-totally reliant on fossil fuels. To generate electricity, many power plants there burn awful oil shale, releasing hideous amounts of sulphur dioxide and many other pollutants directly into the breathing space of citizens. On the bright side of life, Estonia has shown leadership in conserving forests by setting aside huge tracts of land where nature is protected. They have been ramping up contributions from renewable energy modes, and conceivably by 2020 could reach one-quarter of total energy use derived from renewable sources. |
Link to Investigations-4 for part 2 of Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries.
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