Welcome to Investigations3 page. Please refer to Investigations1 page and Investigations2 page if you would like to see the first part of Pan Geo Investment Eco-Flags Table©™. See Investigations for our summary of climate change, ecological survivability and risks and what to do about it.
If you seek investment advice or further information about Pan Geo Investment Inc. and its services, please click on the links below to view other pages of this website or click on Welcome to go to the beginning here or proceed to our OrderAdvice or InvestorDataBlock pages.
Check the marquee banners above and refer to the Performance Page for information about the success of our investment advisory services to date and to view the first part of our 180 country Pan Geo Investment Global Table©. This table also contains direct links to stock market exchanges of these countries, so web surfing investors and interested parties can easily visit them by clicking on the links provided. The 100 countries not currently in our Pan Geo Global Index are shown in the Table portion on our Also Eligible Page.
Eco-Flag "head-lights" to the left reflect forecast ecological survivability in future years. Eco-Flag "tail-lights" are shown on the right-hand-side of our four Eco-Tables. Tail-lights include: "1900s" column lights that reflect the historical situation; "2010" column colored-boxes that reflect the current situation; and "2019" column values that depend on the nature of the binding laws that govern legal actions in a country to have an effect on ecological survivability in the 2019 timeframe including our judgment of progress towards attainment of the ambit of the relevant legal framework. Often, despite their importance to our very existence, environmental and energy laws are slow to be updated and once they are, the full force of the law may take years to have a significant impact on ecosystems. Therefore, as sad as it seems given the time pressures we all face on this, the "2019" year value here is effectively a tail-light in our system. Again, this spooks us but we think it's realistic so we would rather try to meet that challenge head-on. Similarly, as a first approximation, the existing ecological state of a country or countries may be assumed to have arisen due to historical laws, rules and regulations that prevailed there although this is not accurate in some jurisdictions.
There is a 24-color scheme in use in Tables at this website. The particular color reflects the relative health, harmony and sustainability of ecosystems. The range of colors includes in order: dark blue, blue, dark green, green, light green, green-gold, yellow, cream, peanut butter brown, tan, brown, ox-blood brown, light orange, red, flat red, light pink, pink, crimson, purple, mauve, gray, charcoal gray, lead black and black. On a best efforts basis, the color of our status lights changes with time as we become aware of relevant events and information regarding a particular location.
| OUR ECO-FLAG COLORED LIGHTS OF HOPE©™ | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECO-TABLE | 111 | 222 | 333 | 444 | 555 | 666 |
| Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries™ | ||||||
| Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries™ | ||||||
| Murky, Hazy Crimson Red Sunset Countries™ | ||||||
| Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries™ |
Our current expose of Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries is shown below on this webpage including explanations of ecological risks. This gray quadrant constitutes the lowest part of our Eco-Table those nations where ecological survivability to 2019 is most worrisome. We need modernization quickly. Outdated, inefficient, carbon-intensive enterprises and segments need to be squeezed-out from the marketplace. They ought to be replaced with cleaner, greener alternatives, not helped to continue as going concerns. In some instances, wholesale changes are underway for the better but it takes time for the impact to be realized in the natural world.
| PanGeoInvestment.com Fruit Patch©™ | ||
|---|---|---|
| # | Web Page Connection | Web Page Fruit Mist |
| 1 | Welcome | Honeydew |
| 2 | Order Advice | Coconut |
| 3 | Know Your Client | Grape |
| 4 | Investor Data Block | Blueberry |
| 5 | Performance | Orange |
| 6 | Also Eligible | Banana |
| 7 | Investigations | Watermelon |
| 8 | Investigations-1 | Cocoa |
| 9 | Investigations-2 | Guava |
| 10 | Investigations-3 | Blackberry |
| PAN GEO INVESTMENT ECO-FLAGS TABLE© 49 Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries™ as of March 7, 2010. First published Dec. 9, 2007. All rights reserved. | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2049 | 2039 | 2029 | MEMORANDA | 2019 | 2010 | 1900s |
|
Nigeria: Nigeria rivals South Africa as the largest
emitter of greenhouse gases in sub-Sahara Africa. Nigeria has a dense
population, rapid urbanization and an economy based on fossil fuel production
and export and is especially known for deltaic and offshore oil production. It
has a history of unconscionable gas flaring involving the wasteful generation of
huge amounts of carbon dioxide and methane not to mention the hideous waste of a
fuel. Associated gas is not re-injected into wells nor produced despite years of
burning it off. A fine soot coats everything within range of plumes of pollution
emanating from the flares. Only Russia has wasted and polluted more in recent
years by flaring gas and not mandating its production or reinjection subsurface.
Finally however, the jig may be up in Nigeria as the government has imposed a
requirement that flaring end by
December 31, 2010. Thirty years plus of this is a travesty. Had oil well operators been charged at current market prices
for the raw gas wasted and the carbon emissions generated by flaring, none of
this would have happened in the first place. The same comment applies to every
country where flaring of associated gas takes place. Don't believe oil companies
regarding investment hurdle rates for gas processing plants or the costs of
re-injecting gas.
Pervasive air and water pollution is compounded by inadequate land management, soil erosion, deforestation, desertification, drought, loss of biodiversity. Nigeria also has legions of oily-fuel-driven moped-style motorbikes fouling the air. In Lagos, there are problems with carbon monoxide, particulates, ozone and more. Lagos is apparently taking the lead on vehicle emissions tests which should result in the sidelining of many dirty, inefficient internal combustion engines on wheels. Lead-based household paint is the primary culprit now being fingered for the widespread elevated levels of lead in peoples' blood. This overexposure to lead is prevalent especially in the bloodstream of children. Deforestation has been out of control, proceeding at the rate of more than 3% per year of what's left standing. Some say there are precious little forested areas left in northern Nigeria. Further, borderline-dry agricultural lands here could be tipped into becoming barren, unproductive areas as a consequence of the average ambient temperature rise associated with global warming. On the desertification front, the hour is late; an estimated one-third of previously arable land has already become desert. Additionally, agricultural productivity decline affects still-arable land in the country. All told, the likelihood of there being a drop in domestic food production clearly has potential to wreak havoc with the populace. The Nigerian government has already implemented a massive afforestation seedling planting program involving millions of trees each year. So far, however, this effort has not solved the problem. They are going to try reforestation with fruit-bearing vines and trees with hopes the local people will see considerable value in nurturing them to maturity. The Sahara Desert advances south by about half a kilometer or so each year but hopefully a green wall or corridor in the north of the country can eventually slow or stop further desertification there. Nigeria has been moving in baby steps to enhance their capability in solar, wind, solid biomass and liquid bio-fuel endeavors. There is an early inkling towards use of sweet sorghum as a base for producing bioethanol without unduly disrupting land area devoted to growing food. Throughout rural Nigeria, only about 15% of people have water suitable for drinking and cholera is still of near-epidemic proportions in most places. As if all this does not sound chaotic enough, Lagos, now home to 15 million people, is on average only several meters above sea level and much of it is below two meters elevation. Storm surges often involve waves up to three meters high, leaving a margin of (gulp!) minus one meter for about half the population of the metro area. Trouble potentially looms 24 hours a day for the parts of Lagos that lie below global mean sea level now. As the useful land area to live on diminishes, one could perhaps pin hopes on people moving and the population declining. However, Nigeria demographically has one of the highest fertility rates of all countries, at about 5.4 children per woman. The script regarding the toxic waste and biological sludge dump in Lagos called Surulere unfolds like a cheap, zero star horror flick that becomes real. We do not know how anyone could sleep at night living anywhere near such a bizarre cesspool. We advise authorities to ensure all mayhem and potential plagues that could arise from this slagheap of medical refuse, excrement and otherworldly creepy crawlers comes to a full stop. | ||||||
|
Mexico, Colombia,
Ecuador, Peru, Chile: Deforestation and the
attendant soil erosion and loss of water catchment is a big
problem in these countries. There is a critical lack of water for hydropower due
to disappearing glaciers and failure to replenish the water table and rivers
sufficiently by rain. Mexico has had one of the highest rates of tree loss anywhere; only
about one-sixth of their original mangrove forests and rainforests still exist. Mexico is among the top
five countries in number of threatened species. 10% of indigenous
species are gone forever. Surprisingly, perhaps 30% of fish species depend on
mangrove forests in some way for long term survival. Try telling that to a
developer angling to drain the next mangrove swamp and forest to establish
another condominium project, resort, marina or shrimp farm.
Water pollution is widespread from pesticides, sewage and industrial waste, and there are shortages of drinking water. Air pollution degenerates into a suffocating quagmire in densely-populated urban areas of Mexico and Colombia such as Mexico City, Ciudad Juarez and Bogota. In Mexico City, there is an unhealthy level of ozone in the air more frequently than 4 out of every 5 days. The sky is often blanketed by a sickly yellow haze. According to scientific research, the chronic air pollution is, over time, affecting the sense of smell for people who live there as a consequence of pollution-driven deterioration of their olfactory sensory receptors, not to mention their respiratory tracts, capillaries and air sacs. Industrial corridors in Mexico are responsible for strafing local populations with hideous levels of noxious chemicals such as benzene and carbon disulfide. Mexico has some heavy oil production. It remains a profligate gas flarer in association with various oil production facilities. There has been a high incidence of manganism in the populations nearest manganese mining operations in Hidalgo state. Happily, in a historical context, Mexico appears to be more aggressive lately in solving their ecological challenges. Beyond efforts to slow deforestation, they are planning to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by converting coal and oil-fired power plants to natural gas and forcing old diesel-burning trucks, buses and other jalopies off the streets. Mexico City now has a great new green plan that includes dedicated bus lanes, bicycle ways, solar panel deployments, rooftop gardens and more. Recycling is finally starting to take hold. Plans are being accelerated in Mexico to make biodiesel fuel from widespread cultivation of varieties of the jatropha plant. Mexico now has only about 2% of electric power being contributed from wind turbines but they are aiming to ramp that amount up. Wind power installations are being constructed in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec at the rate of approximately one gigawatt of added capacity per year. Due to the challenging ecological circumstances in Mexico, aiming for fast reductions in greenhouse gas emissions before 2025 would involve a phenomenal turnaround to a once-sorry situation. Their commitments so far include being 8% below 2009 levels by 2012 which represents an important inflection point, and to be 50% below their 2002 amount of emissions before 2050. Within a generation, Colombia's glaciers are likely to have melted completely. Along with it, most of their alpine grasslands are expected to capitulate due to lack of water. Colombia also has significant uncontrolled deforestation and land-clearing including that done by drug dregs planting coca shrubs in remote areas including national parks. Coastal cities such as Cartagena and Barranquilla are on the front lines facing global sea level escalation. The progression goes like this: First we have historic, coastal mangrove forests that act as natural buffers against storm activity and encroaching seas. As the pressure from transgression increases relentlessly, the forests capitulate increasingly to a salt marsh environment, then a kind of soupy swampland. Finally, draining of the bog area cannot keep pace and inundation occurs. Permanent flooding has claimed more coastal area angering titleholders who lose their property to the ocean. In aggregate terms, tourists are not all that impressed by this sequence of events either as word gets around about lost beaches, foreshore area and so on. Ecuador appears to be first to recognize in legal terms the rights ecosystems, including all organisms, have to exist and evolve without being assaulted by undue external forces, namely people and organizations. We like this development as it makes it much easier for the general public to take legal action against polluters so a judicial remedy is more easily and quickly available if politicians and governments fail to provide the necessary environmental protection. Unfortunately, Ecuador has been guilty of having one of the highest deforestation rates in the world. It has also had serious problems with industrial polluters, in particular, those that have caused water pollution as a result of their careless oil and gas production activities in the Amazon. The wisdom of developing, and extent to which they can successfully develop, hydropower remain open questions. Peru is doing relatively well on the deforestation front - they have the fourth largest tropical rainforest on Earth and about 60% of the original rainforest area is still there. Peru could conceivably achieve zero net deforestation by 2020 which is very promising if it holds true. However, Peru and Ecuador have prepared or started in on opening up elephantine areas in the Amazon for oil and gas exploration and development. This is potentially a double whammy. One for the associated deforestation; we will also be in-line for the burning of more fossil fuels if hydrocarbon production proceeds here. Further, various indigenous hunting and gathering tribes in the Amazon are being threatened and squeezed out by voracious resource developers. Peru has been getting help regarding exactly how to regulate and manage the trade-off involved with further resource development. Peru now has "ecological police" that conduct raids on homes, businesses and plants regarding harboring of mine tailings and other hazardous materials. In Peru, one quarter of their Andean glaciers have melted in less than a generation. Some say it is conceivable that all Andean glaciers will be gone by about 2023. Peru's carbon emissions are not problematic, at least not yet, as hydropower accounts for 85% of electricity generating capacity. Hydropower production though is clearly a function of the volume of glacier melt water available over time. Andean mine operators, prodigious users of water in their mineral production and metal processing activities, are now sufficiently desperate for more water that they desalinate ocean water and pipe it far inland for use, a highly-inefficient practice. The environmental risks and reality of acid mine drainage into Peru's precious supplies of water are a problem, and potentially a huge problem. There are sorry instances of way-too-highly-concentrated levels of copper, lead, zinc and arsenic in soil, water, air, vegetation, animals and yes, people too, such as exists at the seriously-contaminated mining outpost of La Oroya. There also exists uncontrolled mercury pollution in the country from a wide range of gold miners. Both Peru and Chile should have well-developed mass transit by now to reduce transportation-related pollution and help people get from A to B. Both Lima and Santiago have too-high levels of particulate matter and sulfates lingering in the air. Smog and fine particle pollution engulfs most Chilean cities in a hazardous haze including Santiago, Valdivia, Temuco, Rancagua and Vina del Mar. Such poor air constitutes a public health hazard especially for aged, frail, sick, weak or tired, run-down people. Chile, a gargantuan metals and minerals extractor and processor, is up-against-it to balance industry versus citizen demands for water and electric power. Boosting coal production to power one-quarter of electricity generation before 2020 is an unsavory proposition. Chileans are already among the largest emitters of greenhouse gases per capita in South and Central America. The jig is over for wanton burning of syrupy, carbon-molasses fossil fuels; we would not approve that massive coal-fired installation set for construction in Totoral. Only-belatedly, Chile appears to be getting somewhat serious about developing renewable sources of energy including wind, geothermal and solar. | ||||||
|
Brazil, Malaysia: Brazil has been plagued by over-logging, slash-and-burn
agricultural land-clearing and sometimes-huge smoky peat land and forest fires.
Brazil has more threatened species than virtually anywhere else on Earth.
Deforestation and loss of habitat in tropical rainforests is an ongoing big
concern not only because of endangered species but also due to the consequent
reduced global capacity for uptake of carbon dioxide by plant life. Brazil is
home to perhaps one-third of the remaining tropical rainforests on Earth. More
than 20% of the Brazilian Amazon is already gone as is about 18% of the entire
Amazon Rainforest. Some fear upwards of 50% may
disappear by about 2030 along with many species of plants and animals, not to
mention possible medicines of the future. Huge areas of woodlands, grasslands
and mixtures thereof have also been lost implying a great deal more emissions
from land use changes and degradation. Scientifically, the worry is the
ecological risk of Brazil, and in particular East Amazonia, tipping into
wholesale drying out into savannah or cerrado, the so-called Amazon "dieback" scenario of global warming
and climate change. Some say this could happen anytime after about one-fifth of
the forest has been razed. Others say the limit is more like 50% to 60% of the
rainforest being eliminated, so there is currently sizeable uncertainty about
this phenomenon. However, sentient, self-aware and eco-aware human beings are
smart enough to realize if you don't sway, you won't tip. Unfortunately,
Brazil's ecological survivability has been swaying and we are all interconnected. Brazil remains one of the top four emitters of greenhouse gases on Earth largely due to reckless, wholesale destruction of the Amazon Rainforest and cerrado. Brazil may still account for as much as one-half of global greenhouse gas emissions that arise from deforestation which would be 10% of the overall global total. This amount still only accounts for about three-quarters of emissions from Brazil. So its clearly time for action including a concerted crackdown; we already know that having 300 "environmental agents" covering the entire Brazilian Amazon proved to be wholly-inadequate. The Brazilian government's current plan is to ensure more trees are planted than cut down in the Amazon by 2015. In our view, to merely cut the deforestation rate in half within a decade is totally inadequate, a nonstarter. Any thoughts of afforestation and reforestation? Over the past generation, Brazil's net loss of forest has been approximately 50 million hectares, an astronomical amount. Brazil aims to reduce the prolific teardown rate of its forests during 2009 by 70% before 2017 and 80% before 2020. This is calculated to cut greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 40% versus the "do nothing" scenario which effectively means their base year for measurement is 2020 not 1990, 2000, 2005 or 2009. Authorities in Brazil have said such a target should equate to emissions reductions of about 20% versus that of 2005. Special federal police and environmental agents have been sent in to try to stop illegal logging, land-clearing, sawmill operations and lighting of forest fires from escalating anew across this frontier. Authorities are apparently going after farmers and cattle ranchers that cut down trees, the industry responsible for about 80% of Amazon deforestation. Now, if you raise livestock on illegally-cleared land, your animals could be impounded. Yet, many Amazon natural resource harvestors are defiant and the rate of deforestation has so far continued to increase, wiping out huge new swathes of rainforest. We still have the Bom Futuro's and Tailandia's of the world with us. Hydropower in Brazil accounts for about three-quarters of their electricity generation which is fine so long as Andean glaciers remain voluminous, not a given as we have pointed out. Coal use was once widespread then went into decline due to the historical rise of hydropower and, more recently, of sugar-based ethanol and soybean-based biodiesel sources. Recently, we have become aware of information concerning the Brazilian government resurrecting construction of more fossil fuel-driven power plants. We hope it is not true. We also have phenomena like methane bloating livestock and sooty, sulfurous tailpipe ejections from dirty-diesel-fueled vehicles that proliferate especially in metropolitan areas like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Beyond diesel, sugar-based ethanol provides most transportation fuel. Unfortunately, we still have widespread application of the ancient technique of controlled burning of sugar cane fields to remove underbrush. The cost to life as we know it of this practice is symbolized by curtains of dark gray smoke that waft up into the air from the cane fields. Brazilians should utilize the fibrous parts of sugar cane as a second generation cellulosic bio-fuel. Sao Paulo is the conurbation likely to lead Brazil towards the future - this vast metropolitan area of more than 10 million people is aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% relative to 2005 levels by 2012. That's an aggressive time-line and we like it a lot. Furthermore, by more-closely monitoring the origin of incoming construction materials, they hope to provide an economic disincentive by blocking those cutting down trees in the Amazon and supplying it to the Sao Paulo market. The state of Sao Paulo is looking to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% versus 2009 levels by 2020. We assume that includes emissions arising from land use changes. Indubitably, Brazil is an agricultural powerhouse. It is another one that is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We also hope there is not an agricultural chemical-runoff pollution disaster looming on the horizon. This may be a consequence of prodigious quantities of fertilizers, pesticides, insecticides, herbicides and fungicides applied to once-marginal cerrado land areas in an apparently-successful effort to enhance yields. Clearly, we are not dealing with quaint vegan family farmers here. Rather, we have mega-scale baron-like operators of agricultural complexes. Malaysia has turned more and more to bring on-stream new coal-fired electricity-generating capacity even though they are already well-up in the rankings of egregious greenhouse gas emitters. They have made progress in converting from coal and oil-fired power plants to ones driven by natural gas. However, overall coal use is still up and up as they continue to act on prior-millennium advice to arc gray growth up. Malaysia still has transportation fuel subsidies ostensibly to encourage people to motor more, to combust more greenhouse gases and other noxious pollutants. A target of 5% renewable energy is woefully inadequate. Malaysia also has a problem from overuse of potent pesticides including ones already banned from use in many other countries. Too much land has been cleared to make way for palm oil or rubber plantations, in particular, in Sarawak. If people generally realized palm oil is bad for their heart, there would be little or no food-related demand for it. That alone may help to curtail expansion of this industry and the associated land-clearing binge regardless of its use for biodiesel, soap, cosmetics, etc. We do like the idea of utilizing empty palm oil fruit bunches and rice husks as biofuel. However, to date, it has been mostly palm oil that has ended up as part of the fuel blend in gasoline, for example, in many European countries. Malaysia has problems from forest fire haze. Much of it is a suffocating, morbid-yellowy-gray smoke from Indonesia. At times this haze is hard to distinguish from smoke and soot emanating from an overabundance of diesel-powered vehicles that eject plumes of noxious chemicals including aromatic hydrocarbons, formaldehyde, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide. | ||||||
|
Venezuela, Cuba: Venezuela gives us a
glimpse of what the end game might look like for countries that remain heavily
focused on fossil fuels and minerals especially heavy oil and coal. Hydropower
fires about two-thirds of their electricity generation in times of fairly-normal
water, snowpack and alpine glacier ice replenishment. However, with the advent
of climate change, apparently there
are no glaciers left anywhere in
Venezuela.
On the biological front, red howler monkeys' genuinely have something to howl about as their numbers have been decimated in Venezuela since 2000. It's not entirely bleak here either because they have set-aside massive tracts of land as conservation areas. Cuba mines for nickel and cobalt and is a significant exporter of tobacco products. For energy, they are highly-dependent on imports of Venezuela's heavier, higher-carbon grades of fossil fuels so their carbon footprint is material on a per person basis. Cuba recognizes the potential of solar power and biomass but has done little except with sugarcane waste and bagasse. Eventually, non-food leftovers from rice, coconut, coffee and other crops could also be tapped for renewable biofuel. They are also investing in wind power to take advantage of naturally windy conditions that affect them. Biodiversity has been quite well preserved in Cuba so their slow economic development worked out okay in this sense. Coral reefs offshore are still in relatively good shape compared to most other parts of the Caribbean and beyond. | ||||||
|
Turkey, Mongolia: These two nations are
traditional mineral extraction and processing
centers trying to modernize and cope with economies based on commodities like
coal, chromium, copper, iron ore and mercury. Thermal coal-fired power generators
severely tax air quality. Scratch those plans with a
big "X". Much yellow dust originates in Mongolian deserts. Some cities including Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia and Mugla,
Istanbul, Izmit and Ankara, Turkey have serious pollution of the atmosphere.
Gray skies from photochemical smog and soot prevail virtually year round in some
localities in Turkey. They had
double-digit growth of heat-altering emissions in 2007. There should not be free
or even cheap coal! Coal is NOT cheap, neither is viscous home heating oil, GET it! To add to the health hazard due
to the simple act of breathing, according to the World Health Organization,
nearly half the population smokes in each of these two countries.
Historically in Turkey, household chemicals and waste have been dumped mercilessly into waterways. Stream water is frequently gray, brown or even black not blue or green. Unchecked mining activity near watershed areas has taken its toll to the point where there are also unsafe levels of arsenic in the water supply of countless cities and towns. Specialized water treatment facilities are now being purpose-built to deal with the arsenic problem. Moreover, supply of water is a grim issue so hydroelectricity is no longer a viable option. Lake Tuz, once Turkey's second largest lake, has completely evaporated or been used up. The lakebed area is now so salty trees wilt. Surprisingly, more than one-quarter of Turks still do not have access to toilets and sewage facilities, a shortage of water being one good reason why. Turkey remains far behind any pretence of implementing and enforcing European environmental standards. Turkey has been a laggard in developing renewable sources of energy. However, lately they have been pursuing wind and geothermal energy projects with determination. Turks have installed lots of solar water heaters but we think they should embark on many more solar power projects with considerably less reliance on hydropower and fossil fuels. In Mongolia, we have mentioned already about the pressures being faced by their epic nomadic herders. It is apparent that climate change is forcing them to change their livelihoods as water bodies dwindle to levels never known before. Many people flee to the cities. Many more start flailing around trying to adapt. This may be creating a follow-on problem - too many less mobile sheep and goats leading to overgrazing and further drying out in some areas of the countryside. | ||||||
| Moldova, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Armenia: These countries are guilty of intensive use of various agricultural chemicals and fertilizers including toxic defoliants and pesticides widely-banned elsewhere including DDT. Severe air, water and soil pollution has resulted in this area of the world and it is likely to take a long time for it to rebound ecologically even if a concerted effort begins now. Moldova has had a historical problem with widespread soil erosion from stupid farming practices. In Azerbaijan, decades of heavy industry, in particular, oil drilling-related activity, petrochemicals, textiles, power utilities and serving as a hub for cargo shipping have contributed to the current dire state environmentally of Baku, Sumgayit and the Caspian Sea. Undaunted, Azerbaijan wants to double oil production by 2014. Oil spills and chemical runoff including considerable agricultural pesticides have added to water pollution woes. Many citizens' lives and well-being have been endangered or upset by pollution and shortages of drinking water. There are similar concerns for Turkmenistan and the eastern Caspian Sea area. The Black Sea is also badly polluted with various toxic chemicals as is the case with many inland bodies of water in Georgia and Armenia. The Black Sea has very high concentration of dissolved hydrogen sulfide gas and is pretty well devoid of life. Apparently, conditions have been created where there is a proliferation of comb jellyfish that survive and thrive in this Black Sea environment even though it is hostile to most marine life. Also, Turkmenistan's per capita greenhouse gas emissions have been high. | ||||||
|
Romania, Bulgaria,
Hungary, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina: These countries have various and sundry pollution
problems from careless discharge of untreated sewage and industrial effluents.
They are also on a path now where the EU allows them to continue belching
various warming and asphyxiating gases without penalties until 2020. Thermal power plants are still significant sources of sulfur dioxide thereby
contributing to increased acidity of rainfall in the surrounding areas. Too much
coal is being used and spit and grit manufacturing has not been supplanted by
cleaner, more service-oriented economies. In short,
these countries are too energy inefficient and burn too much high-carbon fuel.
This exacerbates unacceptably the throw-off of greenhouse gases and soot from
poorly-combusted and dirty fuels.
Romania has had mining effluent contamination of water from seepages of cyanide and traces of heavy metal content that ended up in several rivers. Air quality is poor. In Bulgaria, still widespread is the sorry business of old mining and metallurgical operations. Bulgaria is said to have the most polluted air in Europe right now. In relation to the environment, industrial cities like Pernik and Burgas are ghastly places. Happily, the EU is propelling Bulgaria along, to encourage them to get off the coal monkey, by mandating they derive about one-sixth of electrical generation capacity from renewable sources by 2020. Nuclear energy provides approximately one-third of their grid-power now. It's still early days but Romania and Bulgaria have modest wind power installed and are looking to the sun, rivers and biomass to provide energy, too. Hungary is also too reliant on coal and other fossil fuels for energy. Macedonia is overly-dependent on fossil fuels and has bad air pollution. | ||||||
|
Taiwan: Taiwan gushes about 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions
but have only about one-third of 1% of the world's population.
According to their government sources, growth of greenhouse gas emissions has
skyrocketed to about-triple the level only a generation ago. Taiwan is still very reliant on fossil fuels and heavy industry to
drive their economy. Predictably, this results in inordinate amounts of air and
water pollution.
Junky motorbikes plying the streets add to fouling of the air. Atmospheric
pollution is especially
noticeable in cities, namely Kaohsiung and Taipei. Beyond the excessive
amounts they themselves generate and are responsible for, Chinese Taipei people also suffer from proximity to air and marine pollution
generated by the Mainland part of China. Temperatures in the region have been
rising anomalously even relative to the currently-observed, global average warming.
Coral reefs are not in good shape either; much of this critical marine ecosystem
is apparently disease-ridden but the nature of the affliction is presently
poorly-understood.
Excessive land use changes and deforestation have created conditions where erosion and siltation of rivers have become concerns. Estuarine sediment load, coastal development and withdrawals of ground table water is resulting in the freaky phenomena of coastal subsidence. Better watch that one carefully. The ongoing Taiwanese endeavor to vigorously replant the terrain with copious numbers of deep-rooted, water-retention-tower type trees is a very good one. We believe such remedial actions will pay-off big, especially in the intermediate and long term. More fresh water will be a huge victory. Taiwan are likely to lead in improvement of energy efficiency and conservation by electronic monitoring and metering of various appliances, application of temperature control systems and other electronic apparatus in homes, buildings, factories and warehouses. Taiwan has a target that renewable energy sources comprise 15% of all electric power generation capacity by 2025. By this time, they also seek to reduce greenhouse gases by 20% relative to their 2006 levels. They also have a pretty soft appearing goal of getting back to their 2005 magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions before 2020. | ||||||
|
South Africa: South Africa is
responsible for about 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions and about 40% of
sub-Saharan Africa's total. The usual suspects are present including dense population, ongoing migration attempts
from the country to the cities, and an economy based on coal, metals and
minerals. Pervasive air and water pollution is compounded by inadequate land
management, soil erosion, deforestation, desertification, drought and loss of
species. Poor to inadequate wastewater treatment infrastructure has been
recognized. South Africa is currently the biggest-polluting country in Africa. They continue to ramp up coal use domestically not to mention too loudly expanding exports of coking coal to winners like grimey old cement and steel manufacturers. Maps of this region already depict the presence of lingering atmospheric brown clouds reflecting the high concentration of certain potentially life-threatening pollutants. Happily, South Africa's environmental laws are set to become much tougher including the prospect of jail time for those that wantonly pollute. South Africa has a huge mining industry and to date still relies on coal for almost 90% of its energy needs. However, the government has moved in July, 2008 to end industry and consumers living off the avails of dirty coal. Projecting a business-as-usual approach to 2015 would result in about a four-fold increase in greenhouse gas emissions from the level we are at now, not to downplay the impact of a variety of other pollutants they discharge. The status quo answer is clearly unacceptable. Rather, South Africa needs to move fast to reduce use of coal and accelerate development of renewable sources of energy. So far, we hear they are redoubling their effort to go nuclear, apparently planning to rely on a series of smaller nuclear reactors. They now have a feed-in tariff scheme for wind power at least. South Africa is planning for 15% of its electricity to come from renewable sources by 2020. Capping emissions by 2025 is questionable as is their objective to then level emissions for another decade before commencing a decline in absolute amounts. Clearly, reacting to such enormous emissions levels and gushes of other pollutants by 2039 or 2049 is way too late. We flatly disagree that a proposed carbon cap-and-trade system for South Africa would be a more efficient, cost effective, transparent or efficacious mechanism for curtailing greenhouse gas emissions than the global externality tax or tariff (GET) we describe before this portion of our Eco-Table. South African companies are set to be able to reduce tax owing by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions. Even idyllic Cape Town is said to have more threatened species of plants than any other metropolis in the world. South Africa's bluebuck antelope is long gone. Try visiting Durban a mostly-ancient manufacturing hub where ghastly releases of chemicals from refineries including flaring, dumping and spillage of hydrocarbons have led to serious health problems for its citizens. Cancer cases are mounting and are increasingly being attributed to people routinely inhaling known carcinogens such as benzene, dioxins and mining and smelter byproducts such as mercury. The risk of inundation due to rise in sea level is also quite serious here. Metal processing dust and effluents are also affecting human health in places such as Port Elizabeth. Drink the water or breathe the air there and you could well inhale or ingest a laundry list of metallic elements such as manganese, selenium, nickel, copper, zinc, mercury, thallium, chromium, and more. There also exists significant contamination from nitrates in the vicinity of platinum mines. Total dissolved solids content of water may be so high that the water is not drinkable or cannot be used for irrigation. Further, acid mine drainage (AMD) arises due to oxidation, leaching, dissolution and leaking from extensive metal mining and mineral lease areas. This results in the water flowing from there having various metal content and coal residues. Acidic water also overflows from old mine workings, cavities and drill-holes. Often, the consequences of AMD are contaminated wetlands, waterways and groundwater. For example, the devastating effects of AMD can be seen by the dead fish, reptiles and other life-forms that once thrived in the Olifants, Sabie, Letaba and Wilge Rivers. The rivers are reddish in color from the onslaught of acids and pesticide residues. Clearly, planning more mines within river catchment areas is going to make things worse. The Vaal and Umgeni Rivers are also seriously polluted. On the west side of the country with river mouths near Cape Town, we have significant untreated sewage in the waterways spoiling the Soet and Diep Rivers. | ||||||
|
Singapore: Singapore is an
advanced industrial center for electronics, pharmaceuticals,
petrochemicals, aviation, shipping, marine service industries and more. They
want to develop into a center for development and manufacture of various clean
technologies, too.
We know that Singapore has done a lot already on the environmental front and
their per capita pollution was in line with that of Japan and parts of the
European Union. Lately
however, as their
population has increased along with industrial expansion, the pattern has been
that greenhouse gas emissions have risen markedly. So we think renewable energy
sources such as rooftop solar, rooftop wind, bio-fuels, offshore wind, wave and
tidal need to be pursued much more aggressively in an attempt to compensate for
the limited ecological carrying capacity of their city-state. Much more could be done going forward to cut back on wasteful practices such as too-luxurious air-conditioning. There is also too much diesel and coal-fired power generation although natural gas use has been steadily supplanting that of higher carbon fuels, and this trend is expected to continue. Hydrocarbon refineries, petrochemical plants and other manufacturing operations need to be cleaned up, given a green makeover, penalized heavily for not doing so, or shut down in accelerated time frames. Singapore still relies on fossil fuels for over 95% of electricity generation which is very excessive. There are an escalating number of vehicles on already-clogged roads in Singapore although the rate of increase should lessen in future. We like how they penalize drivers for not bicycling or walking. Added to the tailpipe emissions cocktail, residents further suffer from smoke inhalation from Indonesian forest fires. Furthermore, Singapore still engages in the caveman-like practice of incinerating almost-all its garbage such that a steady flow of noxious plumes of pollutants including significant dioxins are vented into the atmosphere. Dioxins and other persistent organic pollutants disrupt hormone balances causing pressure towards infertility and feminization of the male gender. At least they could spend the money to retrofit or install low-emissions capability in their incinerators. Or decommission the trashy ones completely. | ||||||
|
Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan: There has been a large
increase in the number of motor vehicles, mostly very inefficient ones, on the
roads especially in the cities such as Tehran, Karachi and Lahore. Heavy
industries such as steel and cement vent soot, dust, cadmium, lead, zinc,
chromium, mercury and other toxic particulates directly into the air. Inefficient
industrial and vehicle combustion results in air containing heavy metal particles, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide,
smog, rubber tire soot
and unburned hydrocarbons way beyond safety standards. Any airborne sulfate
present may coat particulates such as soot and dust adding to the toll of
localized heat-trapping as opposed to the usual cooling effect anticipated from
sulfate particles in the atmosphere reflecting incoming sunlight. In Tehran, the veil of pollution can take a very long time to clear to
anything approaching safe levels. Dust of very fine consistency lingers and
swirls in breezes. Kabul has serious air pollution most of the time and several
other cities in Afghanistan are becoming worse. There is dust, sewage and
burning of all things from garbage to wood, coal and rubber. Afghanistan
has many ancient vehicles that still fill up with
who-knows-what.
Iran has water stresses looming. Lack of water bodies means dust storms that sweep across the country are more severe. Iran also suffers from expanding dryness and desertification which, in turn, contributes to their water woes. At times, it's a vicious circle. Furthermore, the drawdown of groundwater is causing surface subsidence of up to one-half meter per year or so in some localities. Iran may have about 10% of its electricity generation requirements come from hydropower before 2015 with another 1% or so each from wind power and biomass sources. This is a pretty good start. Clearly, the contribution from solar power could be ramped skyward. Pakistan has been increasing reliance on turnkey oil-fuelled power plants which increases emissions relative to using gas. Merely to get from a to b in cities like Karachi, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, Hyderabad and Peshawar, a motley collection of vehicles including countless motorcycles and two-stroke, 3-wheel motor rickshaws eject ghastly plumes of poisonous air as if there were no tomorrow. In Lahore, they burn tires as fuel, often as a modus operandi in steel mills. How pathetic is that? In Islamabad, people burn garbage to get rid of it. Old diesel-burning trucks add to the pall of pollution in many population centers as does the burning of solid waste. Agricultural waste runoff, discharges of untreated sewage and industrial effluents are also big causes of pollution. We also have Pakistan becoming something of an electronic junk wasteland. The open smashing and burning of old computers may well result in release of toxic substances like phosphor dust and mercury from the monitors and carbon monoxide and dioxins from burning plastics that were likely treated with flame retardants when manufactured. Pesticides and insecticides banned in many countries are still used in Pakistan. Consequently, there has been growth and spreading of aflatoxins into feed stocks sufficient to cause poultry and even large animals like buffalo to die. Environmental hazards are making large numbers of people sick long before their time with communicable diseases at the forefront of maladies. Deforestation, soil erosion and desertification add to their afflictions. Even though most agricultural land in Pakistan depends on the Indus River for water, the volume of water available is likely to diminish in future due to increased melting of Central Asian mountain glaciers and siltation arising from reduced velocity of flowing water. The Chenab, Beas, Sutluj and Ravi rivers are similarly affected. If the water volume of, and load carried by, principal water bodies is curtailed, irrigation canal and channel offshoots from those rivers jeopardizes the reliable distribution of water to sustain agriculture. There already have been shortages of potable water which may be expected to occur chronically across large areas of Pakistan. The majority of Pakistani's, perhaps as many as 90% of the entire population, do not have access to water fit to drink. Over one million Pakistani's die each year from water-borne diseases including as many as one-quarter of a million young children from diarrhea-related complications of drinking or using untreated water. Also, we have had widespread gastroenteritis outbreaks. | ||||||
|
United States of America: Historically, United States is the second largest per capita emitter of
greenhouse gases after UK. Emissions in America from burning fossil fuels should
drop by 6% in 2009 year over year. However, USA remains among the very highest
emitters of heat-trapping gases in per capita terms. On an absolute basis, USA
has been the biggest greenhouse gas emitting country for many years and has only
recently been overtaken by China. For example, in 2007, according to the
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, China was responsible for 24% of
all carbon dioxide emissions worldwide, the USA for 22%. Other countries each
generated less than 10% of the total. USA is better-off than many countries in
terms of ecological carrying capacity due to their relatively modest population
density and greater ability to assimilate, re-integrate and cope with various
waste streams generated.
About one-third of garbage is recycled or composted so there is much room for improvement here given the sheer magnitude and scope of consumption that goes on in US. They also have some 100 million cows plus a huge number of other methane out-gassing farm animals, too. Emissions arising from land use changes still have a sizeable impact. Vast tracts of private timberlands are rezoned and subdivided in stages. Often, second homes and acreages are added amid existing forest lands. In United States, coal-driven plants still provide over 50% of electricity generated and account for about one third of all greenhouse gases each year in USA. The Energy Information Administration has reported that coal is still expected to provide nearly half of America's electric power even in 2030. There is also the serious problem of what to do about the innumerable coal ash dumps from legacy production of coal. Over time, some of the contents of these ponds including a variety of toxic compounds are being leached out. In principle, tax-exempt bonds can still be used to finance coal power plants. However, increasingly, many applications for new coal-driven power stations are being blocked or delayed by various legal actions and the court system. Nation wide, coal-fired power generation is still responsible for as much as 40% of mercury emissions and 60% of sulfur dioxide emissions. However, nitrogen oxide from coal-powered plants must be reduced in 2009 and sulfur dioxides must be curtailed further no later than 2010. Historically, acid rain has been a big problem in USA. That particular phenomenon was remedied to a significant extent in recent years but cleaning up abandoned mines remains a big task. US pipeline and refinery operators currently plan and are undertaking upwards of $50 billion or more of capital investment for new pipelines, refineries, refinery expansions, retrofitting and conversion of conventional crude facilities so they can transport and process heavy crude input from Canada and Venezuela. To the extent that heavy crude is used as feedstock and use of these dirty, sour inputs is not cut-back or halted in some areas, pollution from affected oil refineries including sulphur and metals like mercury, nickel and lead, is likely to increase markedly in US and cross-border into Canada, too. Given the scale of the US economy and the extent of trade, pollution is also vast from bunker fuel-burning ships entering their waters and diesel trucks rumbling in and out of port areas. Those emissions cocktails includes plenty of soot, particulates, nitrogen and sulphur oxides and nitryl chloride. Stricter diesel-powered emissions rules for the future have recently been announced in USA affecting vessels, boats and trains. Cruise liners, tanker and container ships anywhere near California must operate on low-sulphur diesel fuel. Due to new federal government standards set, greenhouse gas emissions emanating from and the fuel efficiency of cars and light trucks both will have to improve markedly before 2016. Across fleets, an average of 35 miles per US gallon of fuel is required. We very much look forward to the realization of a nation-wide, smart power grid and to one million plug-in hybrid electric or electric cars being on the roads in America before 2016. We want to see a low-carbon fuel standard in every state not only California and Oregon. Further, California has regulations mandating a reduction in carbon content of transportation fuels by 2015, and they do not accept inbound carbon-intensive energy sources anymore. This was the first low-carbon fuel standard we knew of. It recognizes the significant carbon footprint associated with first generation ethanol. This ethanol also utilizes about four times the volume of water as ethanol produced to process it from starch which is a concern. California has also pushed for a hydrogen highway including a network or hydrogen-fuelling stations. We are dismayed that these incredible liquid hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicles are ready-to-go, however, potential owners in virtually every jurisdiction are still waiting for hydrogen service depot infrastructure so drivers can get from point to point before they run out of fuel. Fluorinated gases are also being regulated, use of which is being cut back. We are also fired-up about California's leading-edge green chemistry initiative. It will reveal to consumers to what extent the design, manufacture, transport and use of a product is environmentally friendly. California are also pushing for 33% of its grid-electricity to be derived from renewable sources before 2020. Their objective is to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2020. Other states such as New York and Massachusetts are also already far-along the green path. New York is targeting renewable energy to provide 30% of electricity grid power generation by 2015 and for a reduction by 30% of carbon emissions before 2030. We have emerging clean-tech jurisdictions, too such as Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, Iowa, Florida, Hawaii, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, Mississippi and Washington where there have been bold moves to try to ramp up use of renewable energy faster. Hawaii has mandated that an astonishing two-thirds of electrical demand be satisfied by renewable or other alternative sources before 2030. Texas is likely to become a prime area for wind-generated power and solar energy too. Presently, however, Texas has a very problematic chemical soup of fossil fuel combustion emissions, petrochemicals and more to contend with. Texas can't go on generating greenhouse gases at rates comparable to all of Africa. The Midwest has historically suffered from refining and widespread use of carbon-intensive fuels. A clean fuel standard will over time face-down that huge problem by eliminating all high-carbon sources so we should have a happy ending in this region, too. There are many fuel inefficient vehicles still on the roads throughout America and plenty of whimsical driving. Plus we obviously have lots of flights that involve US locations. Jets worldwide add several percentage points to the global tab for greenhouse gases. The American Lung Association has gathered much data on metropolitan statistical areas in United States. Los Angeles and Pittsburgh have the most polluted air overall among major cities according to their analysis. Particulates plague those cities plus other ones including Birmingham, Cleveland-Akron, Milwaukee and Detroit. Ground-level ozone has also been problematic in USA particularly on hotter days in congested areas of cities such as Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Louisville and Jacksonville, due to high levels of volatile organic compounds, smog and nitrogen oxides. San Francisco is the first major city we know of that has implemented a strict but realistic plan towards the noble objective of eliminating the need for more landfills and incinerators. As a corollary, San Franciscans are participating en masse in recycling, composting and developing a keen sense of eco-consciousness. Plus a nutrient-rich organic fertilizer-type product is being made available for delivery to California's agriculture industry. The newly-recognized phenomenon of cold weather ozone emanating from natural gas fields or gaseous oilfields is unwelcome news. Apparently, anywhere that particular well-bore drilling chemicals mix with gas fumes from the vicinity of those types of wells plus snow-reflected sunlight leads to creation of very high levels of ozone. There also exists the emerging problem of gas reservoir fracturing chemicals that potentially, somehow could end up in groundwater. Knowing exactly what those chemicals are will make it easier to sense and trace what happens subsurface. In the US, there has (or had) been a practice of allowing heavy industry such as cement kilns to burn rubber tires as a fuel source which clearly adds to pollution woes. Tire-burning releases soot, dioxins, furans, lead, cadmium, various acids and other noxious gases. We are counting on Americans to stop others from burning this hideous material and to mandate doing something else with it. And to lead the mission to find a substitute for vulcanized rubber. And to try to curtail it from being shipped as it is being now from certain countries to some developing nations to become a cheap and dirty extender in a dreadful blend of diesel fuel which is then combusted. Into our atmosphere. As the Earth rotates, the winds just might bring that air pollution back our way for us to breathe, too. Not a warm and fuzzy bedtime story for our children. Cement-makers have also released too much mercury, particulates and hydrochloric acid. US continental shelf areas have extensive anaerobic dead zones attributable in large measure to fertilizers, pesticides and other chemical runoff originating inland that ends up in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic or Pacific Oceans. Unnervingly, PCB's, DDT, other pesticide residues, dioxins, mercury, arsenic, boron and more still show up in many US rivers with unacceptable concentrations even though PCB's and DDT were banned long ago in the US. US Environmental Protection Agency now has compiled a most-wanted list of environmental fugitive types which can only help enforcement of existing laws, rules and regulations. It's also on a parallel path to regulate major greenhouse gases if it comes to that but legislation is still the preferred means to prompt pollution reduction and stop climate change. We like the competitive auctions implemented in the US to boost the geothermal energy segment. USA has been the world's largest geothermal power producer. The amount they produce should increase by half or more before 2020. Various entities have been moving aggressively developing wind power, solar power, geothermal and different bio-fuels. If biomass including ethanol is tallied up along with other renewable sources, the US now has clean energy for about 7% of its overall energy needs. We harbor little doubt USA will move through the ranks of countries in this table as it incorporates space-age technologies into the mainstream. How fast they achieve that is an open question. With legislation pending, USA is currently targeting being about 4% below 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 whereas in 2008 they were about one-sixth beyond their 1990 total. This target equates to being 17% below 2005 levels. They also aim to be about one-fifth below their 1990 amount of greenhouse gases by 2025 and to emit one-third less heat-trapping gases versus 1990 before 2030. By the mid-century mark, the anticipation currently is to reduce these pollutants by somewhere in the range of two-thirds to three-quarters relative to the situation during 1990. On the algebra front, we hesitate to believe USA can achieve such targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions at the same time as they ramp-up importation of carbon-laden heavy crude from Canada by three hundred percent or more by the 2030's. In terms of absolute capacity, US is already the world's largest wind power but that total is still modest compared to its overall energy use. Wind currently accounts for only about 2% of their grid power. However, US now has rules for offshore wind and wave development which will spur development activity. The Department of Energy has said it's conceivable wind-driven turbines could comprise 20% of electric power generation in US by 2030. USA is aiming to double its use of solar and wind energy by 2012 and to have 25% of power grid energy come from renewable sources by 2025. The majority of electrical generating capacity being newly-added these days is powered by either renewable sources or natural gas. Collectively, 10% of electric power is to come from renewable sources by 2012. A legal standard is in the process of mandating that at least 15% of all power from utilities must be derived from renewable sources by 2020 plus a 5% improvement in energy efficiency. We do have an ugly compromise on the carbon markets front whereby 85% of cap-and-trade permits are to be given away initially as opposed to being auctioned. So now various industry segments are jockeying for, and mounting a variety of pressure plays to grab, "their fair share" of freebies while it lasts. It's great that USA is moving aggressively towards a comprehensive climate change solution. A recent geophysical paper is now raising the specter of much greater coastal submergence risk in the long run in US than previously had ever been articulated. East coast cities including Boston, New York, Jacksonville and Miami are especially vulnerable to ongoing increases in sea level. Higher short term rise components due to storm and tidal surges superimpose on top of the long term rise occurring as a consequence of global warming, thermal expansion of water and polar icecap melting. It makes for rather spooky reading and we hope someone finds a flaw in their data, analysis and/or hypothesis rather than having to think of things like alteration of the Earth's axis of rotation as a result of catastrophic ice sheet melting. | ||||||
|
Egypt, Bangladesh: Many people from these
two countries live on or near huge deltas, that is, very close to or at sea
level. Therefore, flooding of vast low-lying land including agricultural
heartlands of the Nile and Ganges River delta areas may occur at virtually any
time, submerging vast food crop areas in the process. Water-based diseases and
contamination abound in both these countries. In Egypt, one
third of the population live on the Nile River delta and every major city is by
or close to the Nile. Given how adverse weather
and a rise in sea level has already impacted Bangladesh, Egyptians must
also be especially anxious about how
climate change may eventually cause, or contribute to, a series of calamities or
catastrophe. These two nations illustrate how poverty,
overpopulation pressure, desertification, increased salinity and natural hazards combine to overwhelm
fragile ecosystems. The abject poor cannot lose anything else or catastrophe
will strike. The ongoing encroachment of sea level, increased likelihood of
flash flooding of mega-delta areas and further salting of water will
inevitably affect their food supply. Saline inundation infiltrates the
groundwater and wells up from below parching the land and ruining already-scarce natural, fresh
water supplies. Egypt has developed solar-powered desalination plants to start
counteracting the problem. They are also involved in the futuristic Desertec
solar power initiative involving Europe. This is a tremendous opportunity to
ramp up renewable energy use and grid power export capability across North
Africa.
Moreover, Egypt has already planned for wind-driven power
capacity of seven gigawatts to be available before 2020. That would be
sufficient to generate about one-eighth of their current grid electricity
providing some relief to the untenable situation now where they remain 85%
dependent on burning fossil fuels to drive electric-power plants. One-sixth or so of the land area of Egypt, including Alexandria and Port Said, is said to be at high risk of being submerged due to a sea level rise of no more than about one meter, a distinct possibility before 2050. This would likely involve transgression of the Mediterranean Sea across an average of about 65 kilometers of land parallel to the current coastline. Very little of Egypt's land is arable and most of that is near the Nile Delta which, according to the aforementioned scenario, would also be partially-submerged to the tune of perhaps 15% of its current extent. Egypt also has a challenging air pollution problem especially near metropolises. Mass transit in major cities would help immeasurably as would reducing a three-quarters share of fossil fuel use to power their production of electricity. Renewable energy should be a big phenomenon here. Mere conversion of various plant and equipment to natural gas from higher carbon content fuels is not by itself going to resolve issues connected to, or impacts arising from, global warming. We suggest the ancient agricultural practice of burning leftover rice straw following harvesting should instead be to gather up the remains for use as fertilizer or animal feed or as feedstock for production of a new bio-fuel. Civic garbage is routinely burned by residents and businesses. Cairo has an appalling problem with sunlight-dimming atmospheric brown clouds, ugly carcinogenic mixtures of soot, black carbon, lower stratosphere (bad) ozone and other particulate matter that persists. Its air quality is said to be the worst of any city in Africa. We suggest Egypt not listen to "green" entrepreneurs and corporate salesmen types who are known to try to gain a commercial advantage by parading the idea that burning any kind of biomass is a practice good for the environment. We are for accelerating the migration of millions of people from submerging island economies and very vulnerable, way-overpopulated countries such as Bangladesh to other richer, higher elevation nations especially those still having relatively abundant ecological carrying capacity relative to the pollution and waste-stream load already being shouldered. In 2007, despite having in place an elaborate safety system including sirens and refuge towers, Bangladesh suffered a major cyclone that resulted in huge loss of life, chaos and the displacement of tens of millions of people. If you live on or near the Sundarbans and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, the world's largest delta, that traverses Bangladesh and southeast India, you are already a victim of climate change. The southern islands here are already progressively-dipping beneath encroaching saltwater, shrinking available arable land not to mention a place to live. Each year an estimated 100 square kilometers is lost to the sea. Khulna, Chittagong and Cox's Bazar are highly vulnerable to natural disasters being not far from the front lines of climate change. Warming, thermal expansion of water and rise of sea level is now noticeably affecting the Bay of Bengal. 20% of Bangladeshi's land area could be lost by mid-century due to transgression by the ocean and flooding events also involving unusually-high volumes of melt-water tumbling down from the Himalayas. Scientists at Dhaka University estimate that before 2050, 35 million people in the country risk becoming internally-displaced climate refugees. This implies an average rate of about one million people per year in Bangladesh whose lives will be disrupted perhaps to the point of no return. Bengal tigers in the area do not like this "squeeze play" either and are becoming nastier towards people. Nor would we want to run-up against an Indian python, a species that is also on-the-ropes in this region. A combination of global rising sea level and deltaic subsidence fuels the rate of submergence. Ongoing subsidence in many inland and coastal areas around the world occurs due to a myriad of factors. Factors include increased sediment load, increased structural load from cities, saltwater ingression and progressive loss of support from fresh water once contained underground. Due to the complications, the dynamics here are most often left out of equations about climate-change-induced global rise of sea level. In Bangladesh, ground water tables are increasingly being depleted to lower and lower levels as more and more people search for and utilize fresh water from aquifers. According to the government of Bangladesh, it plans to plant 100 million trees as a natural way to try to reduce the negative impact of storms, tidal surges, floods, salt incursion and droughts. Arsenic contamination of groundwater including well-water is a widespread affliction, so widespread that it affects at least 30 million people. As many as 100 million people are at risk of developing arsenicosis (poisoning from arsenic). Whereas, people that opt to drink surface water are frequently afflicted with a variety of gastro-intestinal illnesses. Diarrhea and diarrhea-related diseases have reached epidemic proportions in parts of Bangladesh. With virtually any river in Bangladesh, there may be river bank and estuary erosion and switching morphology at certain times of the year thereby displacing nearby residents and spreading the polluted contents of the river onto the adjacent land areas. Chemicals and waste dumped into rivers in Bangladesh include DDT, other pesticides, animal hide and skin trimmings, grime, grease, oil, chlorine, mercury, chromium, sulphate, ammonia and copious amounts of chemical fertilizers from agricultural run-off. The Buriganga River is said to be close to being devoid of life. However, there is a massive dredging and clean-up of it during 2010 which we hope will result in its rehabilitation. Other rivers such as the Shitalakshya, Turag, Balu, Bhairab and Norai are also ecologically null and void, having virtually no dissolved oxygen content to sustain life forms. These rivers are black, not blue, and often have the consistency of motor oil. In and around Hazaribagh, a center for the dyeing, tannery and textile industry, the water is really not water at all. Rather, it's an abominable chemical concoction of agricultural chemical residues, poisonous industrial liquid waste and other effluent, residential solid waste, other garbage and raw sewage. Other industrial centers such as Narayanganj, Gazipur, Rajshahi City and Tejgaon are nearly as odious. Living organisms including us are mostly water. We need fresh water every week to survive. What future do the people have here if water quality is this pathetic? Many freshwater fish are on the verge of extinction or have disappeared altogether as a consequence mainly of water pollution. Siltation is creating new terrain in places but is fragmenting and eliminating waterways that were once habitat for fish and transportation corridors for people. We suggest farmers try placing live ducks throughout their paddy fields as a substitute for pesticides, fertilizer and use of more water. Cities such as Dhaka, Chittagong and Khulna are plugged with old-junk buses and trucks that belch noxious fumes from diesel fuel combustion. The concentration of lead in the air in Dhaka is an order of magnitude greater, that is ten times greater, than the environmental standard set. So we have very high levels of particulate matter mixed in with carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, cyanide, polycyclic organics, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen dioxide, lead and sulfur. Another big contributor to air pollution is indoor cooking and the open venting from scads of brick-producing kilns that may burn any of wood, coal, charcoal, dung, crop residues, polythene, even rubber tires. With combustion like this, is it any wonder particulates have been blamed for kidney and lung diseases including cancer. Bangladeshi's have indeed absorbed haymaker lefts, roundhouse rights and innumerable jabs. But now glimmers of hope come from 150 million kilometers away, from the star of our solar system. By 2013, as many as 10 million people in Bangladesh may have installed and be utilizing modest-cost, rooftop solar power systems. Millions of citizens who did not have reliable electricity, or had none at all, are increasingly turning to the Earth's shining star, the sun, to brighten their futures. Bangladesh is now also aiming for 10% of electricity to be derived from renewable sources of energy especially solar power. Further, breathing is becoming easier for those involved as droves of dreadful kerosene-burning lamps are being junked in the wake of this change. More and more kerosene and other heavy fuel oil dealers and salesmen are finding themselves looking for something else to do. | ||||||
|
Haiti:
Oh my God, please no...no, not again...not another
tragedy. We feel very sorry for the plight of Haitians,
it's all so sad, so very, very sad. It's a total
disaster area. We wish many of these poor people could get out of there for good, especially
from earthquake-prone Port-au-Prince. Infrastructure is going to take
many years to rebuild, this city has been devastated! On January 12, 2010 this country became
more like a living nightmare of a prison in a scurrilous geo-horror movie than a nation state.
Destitute Haitians were eating mud pies before this happened. Countless
Haitians so very clearly remain truly up against it, the odds are stacked too
high against them. There are far too many people living there, stuck there, than
the country can physically support anytime soon without flirtation with the next
disaster scenes. So let's end this nightmare for them by ferrying millions of Haitians out to other countries
temporarily or permanently before
disease spreads, people wither and collapse. Or a follow-on earthquake erupts
along the same fault or with an epicenter in adjacent faults where severe
stresses are likely to be ratcheting-up further with every passing moment.
Surely our Earth, the 194 independent states of this Earth, can invite every anxious,
suffering, despairing Haitian into their midst and care for them, help them adjust, give
them hope in life and relief from chaos, indignity, risk, pain, sickness, trauma, stress,
fatigue, you name it.
Open up your hearts and wallets, this is a test of our collective humanity. And there have been thousands of heroic foreigners and local people, too whose solemn efforts, determination and courage in helping the afflicted have been dramatically-lessening the sadness and giving hope where little was once possible amid the rubble and ruin. They should get the Olympic medals of 2010. Those men and women helping on the ground there know we can't turn our cheek or click to the next channel and leave them this way. Without ongoing Olympian-great assistance, this country has only a faint hope of recovering from ecological, geological, socioeconomic, health and wellness mayhem. Historically, deforestation has been out of control in Haiti. Today, only about 3% of forest cover remains. 3%! Couple that with hurricanes, other storm or tidal surges and perhaps heavy rainfall and we have a big problem. In Haiti, upland soil erosion and mass wasting flows have historically been devastating consequences of deforestation. Gonaives has been swamped with mud too many times. Also we have problematic air and water pollution especially noticeable in Port-au-Prince. | ||||||
|
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman: Saudi Arabia
has had to deal with all the challenges that come with being the world's number one
producer and exporter of oil. That includes being among the top 20 emitters of
greenhouse gases on this planet and having a legacy of gas flaring, oil spills and
degradation of coral reefs and the near-shore environment. Water is very much
lacking in the desert kingdom but they can very well afford to operate
energy-inefficient desalination plants to assure themselves of supply. In our
view, the grotesque pollution generated by oil tankers means the importer and
exporter are equally responsible for the entirety of that waste stream. Saudi
Arabia is now investing a lot in solar power development. They currently have a target for 7% of
domestic energy needs to come from renewable sources
before 2020 which is a welcome beginning to ending their drastic over-reliance
on hydrocarbons. Bahrain has many of the same issues as Saudi Arabia to deal with. Greenhouse gas emissions per capita have been sky-high. Traffic-congested and industrial areas of Manama reek with tailpipe exhaust and smokestack emissions. Ground level ozone also enters the country from elsewhere. Hazy fossil fuel pollution makes powering air-conditioners more problematical, a conspicuous consumption event. Oman's carbon emissions have been sizeable on a per capita basis. Like Saudi Arabia and other countries where there exists limited land area that is not desert or subject to ongoing desertification, Oman is operating and consuming far beyond the ecological carrying capacity of its useful land base. Oman, however, does have peridotite rocks in abundance at the surface which, upon contact, naturally converts carbon dioxide present in the air into various mineral solids. | ||||||
|
Russia,
Ukraine, Belarus: These countries have
historically been among the most energy and emissions intensive of all. This
means an inordinate amount of energy has been wasted and pollution generated per
unit of economic output. In Russia, there is
bad air pollution from defense-related activities and heavy
industry, coal-fired electric plants and vehicular emissions.
Russia exports plenty of coal and they plan to ramp up
domestic use of coal significantly, too.
This is very unfortunate because, generally speaking, Russia
has an enviable mix of more environmentally-friendly energy resources to draw on
including about one-quarter of the world's known reserves of natural gas. Russia
has also developed significant hydro and nuclear power. Unfortunately, they lag
in adopting wind power even though there is available for harnessing across
Russia more wind energy than exists in any other country. The countries here are large geographically, in particular, vast Russia. So they can absorb a certain amount of ecological punishment before too many ill effects and impacts make it apparent a clampdown and some Yeltsin-style "shock therapy" may be required to redress the situation. The most out-of-control polluters likely belong in jail; when they get out on parole, their community service work should include time physically cleaning up ecological disasters and messes. Raging fires in Russia, notably in southern Siberia, have ratcheted-up markedly the greenhouse gas emissions toll on the atmosphere. Springtime burning of agricultural land and new areas being prepared for crops or livestock grazing is widespread throughout southern Russia, adding to the smoky, sooty haze. Russia is a top-five greenhouse gas emitter, is the largest flarer of gas in the world, and burns forests and other biomass extensively. Up to one quarter of gas associated with oil production is wasted by being flared though plans are in place to cut this to about 5% overall by 2012 or face significant financial penalties. The government wants Russians to reduce energy consumption by 40% by 2020 mostly through conservation and improving energy efficiency. Russia is currently targeting somewhere from a 10% to 25% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions relative to 1990 levels by 2020. However, this means emissions by 2020 can increase by about 10% to 25% relative to their 2007-2008 levels. They have also committed to being 50% below their 1990 amount before 2050. About two-thirds of Russian cities are afflicted with high levels of air pollution. Radioactive and otherwise toxic chemical sites, persistent organic pollutants, pesticides and other noxious chemicals are often very evident. Especially poignant is the experience in Dzerdjinsk where seemingly-medieval cauldrons still abound and spew gruesome plumes of pollutants into a dying airspace. Norilsk, a northern mining and smelting center, has historically released hideous amounts of sulfur dioxide, nickel oxides and various other heavy metal compounds into the atmosphere sufficient to knock up to 10 years off your life if you reside there. People say no trees grow for tens of kilometers around the most horrific point source polluters. Throughout Russia, a lot of garbage is still incinerated, even the toxic stuff. Large fines and a clamp down on egregious-polluting offenders have only recently been initiated in some localities. According to the city administrators, 40% of St. Petersburg's raw sewage and untreated industrial waste ends up in River Neva and Gulf of Finland. Kaliningrad's raw sewage has ended up in the Baltic Sea along with a variety of other pollutants. Volge Federal District also has many severe pollution problem areas. The Volga River is nearing ecological collapse from various wastewater injections to its watershed. Several rivers in Siberia are also heavily polluted. The coldest days of winters in Russia are reported by the British Meteorological Office to be up to four degrees Celsius warmer than during the 1950's, only a half-century ago. In Siberia, the temperature of permafrost soil is estimated to have risen by about one degree Celsius over one generation of time. This is not a pretty situation. Over the past century, average temperatures in Russia have warmed by about one-and-a-third degrees Celsius. The effects of melting permafrost are often all-too-obvious. Unfortunately, more than half the enormous land area of Russia has permafrost. There is considerable anecdotal and other evidence attesting to tree lines moving upslope in some places by many meters every year. And rail track bending and buckling. Flood risk in Russia due to progressive global warming-related rises in sea level or from storm surge events is most dire in St. Petersburg and the Arctic Ocean-facing cities of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk. In Ukraine and Belarus, soil pollution arises from overuse of pesticides and/or contamination from radioactive constituents still in the soil from Soviet-era events. Vats of poisonous pesticide were buried in many localities in an attempt to rid the stuff. However, as the containers decomposed over time the contents began leaking into the ground and groundwater. From consequences due to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear site accident in Ukraine, one-quarter million people have been afflicted with radiation-induced illnesses of various kinds, in particular, cancers. The latter have already led to the demise of about 100,000 people. Several rivers in this region also still contain high levels of radioactive particles in various locations. Look here, too to see the effects of significant coal mining and old coal-fired power plants. Prior careless, large-scale metal mining has added to the woes here-and-now for these countries. Don't go to Mariupol, Dneprodzerzhynsk or Donetsk on a holiday anytime-soon. The air, water and soil quality is abysmal across this severely-polluted swathe of Ukraine in particular. Similar to Russia, they commit to keeping greenhouse gas emissions at least 5% and perhaps 10% below 1990 levels. However, such levels would actually represent a significant increase over their 2008 amounts. | ||||||
|
Poland, Czech Republic,
Estonia: These
countries have been
environmental calamity areas in the past due in large measure to heavy use of
coal, oil shale and toxic metallurgical operations. This led to horrid air pollution, acid
rain, water pollution and degradation of the forests. And you may think that
maybe that would....and you would be wrong - Poland is still angling for more
coal production and use even though almost all their
electricity generation arises from coal combustion. Almost a tonne of carbon
dioxide gas ends up in the atmosphere for every megawatt of electricity they
generate. From places like Belchatow and Katowice, fumes from mining and burning
lignite coal waft into the air. Other ancient industries like textiles in Lodz
pollute air, soil and water. The nearby Baltic Sea has vast ecologically-dead zones that are
currently the most extensive on Earth. Periodic infusions of cyanobacteria turn
parts of the Baltic Sea brown and goopy, choked with algae blooms. Various
dioxins persist in the Baltic Sea. Czech Republic is about 60% dependent on coal for electric power and is sporting one of the highest emissions growth rates in the European Union (EU). Ostrava, a gritty coal and steelmaking hub, is among the most polluted places in Central Europe. Residents there are protesting what they have to breathe every day. Soil contamination from reckless industrial practices of bygone days is still widespread, threatening drinking water purity even in Prague. Air quality in cities like Moravia and Prague is also poor most of the time. So bad that Prague has authority to halt inflow of traffic to congested areas altogether if the need arises based on escalated concentrations of particulates in the atmosphere. The EU's most recent response has been to allow these wanton polluters to continue without significant monetary or other consequences until as late as 2020. How sickening that the days of free, egregious polluting are so obviously still with us. Estonia has a very large carbon footprint relative to the size of their population. Emissions increased a whopping 15% in 2007! Estonia's carbon-intensive economy is still nearly-totally reliant on fossil fuels. To generate electricity, many power plants there burn awful oil shale, releasing hideous amounts of sulphur dioxide and many other pollutants directly into the breathing space of citizens. On the bright side of life, Estonia has shown leadership in conserving forests by setting aside huge tracts of land where nature is protected. They have been ramping up contributions from renewable energy modes, and conceivably by 2020 could reach one-quarter of total energy use derived from renewable sources. | ||||||
|
Canada: Canada and Australia export vast volumes of coal,
heavy oil and lower-carbon fossil fuels to China, United States and other
countries, outsize amounts of
carbon-intensive fossil fuels relative to the size of their populations. They
also are heavily involved heavily in mineral extraction and processing
activities and are significant producers of aluminum, an energy intensive
undertaking. Australia and Canada stand out again
and again as being among, or are, the highest per capita emitters and polluters
among major industrialized countries. Canada and Australia are
relatively-sparsely populated but have sizeable resource-based economies that
are generators of enormous quantities of pollutants. On a per capita basis,
both rank among the world's worst offenders as emitters of greenhouse gases and
as generators of waste generally.
High levels of vehicular emissions and
industrial pollutants are especially noticeable in larger, congested metropolitan
areas. Rush hours stink!
Their saving grace is having modest populations versus the
vastness of the physical geography. This has meant that, so far at least,
ecosystems in many areas of their country-sides have not been pressed into
service beyond their ecological carrying capacity. Both countries have
belatedly made somewhat significant moves into wind power. We sincerely hope much
greater use of renewable energy takes place and that it happens in an
abbreviated time frame.
Performance with respect to the Kyoto Protocol has been fairly disastrous: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have gone up by more than one-quarter since 1990, Australia's by more than three-quarters since 1990. If these countries do not pay-up to cover their own shortfalls with respect to this agreement as Japan willingly did, there would seem to be a problem. They appear to believe commitments made regarding reducing their throw-off of heat-trapping gases is some kind of high-level game. In this cartoon, they realize there is Sylvester™ the Cat and Tweety Bird™, but ostensibly they also believe there is no watchdog with teeth like Brutus™. So fossil fuel mandarins operating in these countries together with their investors, advisors and financiers easily influence politicians and regulators. We have been quietly hoping Canada's tough-minded bankers would smarten-up whoever needs to be smartened-up regarding Canada's disproportionate overinvestment in the tar sands. Much greater emphasis on renewable energy is needed. The country is lagging way back in this great green race of the new millennium. Furthermore, Canada does not need the oilsands to survive and prosper. It would be a responsible thing to do to work out a way oilsands projects could be held at bay as a sunk cost, strategic reserve type operation to be fired-up only in the event of there being a security issue affecting Canada, NAFTA/NORAD, NATO, etc. such that more energy was needed pronto. Other than that, we think opinion worldwide, including among the Canadian and American public, is solidly-against the oilsands of Alberta. We believe a public referendum concerning the future of the tar sands in Canada would establish exactly that. Citizens everywhere expect their powers-that-be to live-up to international commitments, for example the Kyoto Protocol, and to bear their fair share of responsibility for legal agreements, not to shirk same. The players in heavy oil and coal have not paid their pro rata share of Kyoto liability based on the pollution generated historically by their activities. Whose bill is that, who is obligated to pay it, the people of Canada? The Alberta oil sands are widely-considered to be among the highest cost, energy and pollution intensive fossil-fuel projects remaining on Earth. As time goes by and tar sands extraction descends further into the abyss, each increment of production becomes more and more carbon-intensive. Very few people speak of the possibility that carbon capture and underground sequestration can overcome this burden. Alberta, with their vast windfall from triple-digit oil prices, should have been aggressively diversifying into renewable sources of energy a generation ago. They failed to do it and even today are reluctant. This in our new epoch where either multilateral political pressure, carbon markets and/or, in our view, the inevitability of a global externality tax (GET) type mechanism will all-but ensure there is no viable future for Alberta's oil sands. With climate-can't-change looming on the horizon as an imperative in virtually every country, it may not be long before there are no refineries left that can upgrade grimy, sulfurous heavy crude because the jurisdiction where they operate has effectively or actually shut them down. Rather than the dirty oil, we think many people in western United States would want the fresh, clean water that is forgone from the watershed once used in processing of bitumen. Canada produces about 2% of global greenhouse gases but has only 0.5% of the world's population. Coal power still accounts for generation of about one-sixth of all electricity in Canada. Its use is very prevalent in certain jurisdictions such as the Province of Alberta. In general, however, Canada has less problems from coal mining and burning than Australia but huge externalities from oil sands development in northern Alberta. Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 26% since 1990 and by about 4% during 2007 relative to 2006. The current target of the Canadian federal government is still for Canada to be 17% below the 2005 amount of emissions by 2020. This equates to being about 3% above Canada's 1990 magnitude of emissions. Such a state would be very different than reducing greenhouse gases to 6% below 1990 levels before 2012 which was their obligation under the Kyoto Protocol. The long term objective is, before the mid-century mark, to cut emissions by 60% relative to that of 2006. Sadly, Canada could have been a significant wind, geothermal and solar power by now but for whatever set of reasons has repeatedly chosen to snub vigorous development of renewable sources of energy. Rather like a punch-drunk boxer never knowing when to quit, Canada staggers further down the heavy fossil fuel road, seemingly-oblivious to the drastic consequences inevitably being emblazoned on future generations. Bear in mind that once known ecological costs are included in project analysis, a huge amount of these oilsands "reserves" are actually only a resource. As such, extraction should have been curtailed during the 1990's. The Alberta heavy oil industry notion of a tripling or quadrupling of 2009 synthetic crude and bitumen production levels by 2029 strikes us as being bizarre in the real-world circumstances we find ourselves in. Emissions must be brought under control imminently, not in another generation or so. Our view is tar sands bitumen operations constitute a kind of gruesome, gluey-molasses, alchemy-type undertaking. Only the proponents are not trying to transmute baser metals into gold like loopy medieval chemists during the 1600's with their fire-witches slowly turning grinding wheels in the Court of the Crimson King©. Rather, by contrast, they are attempting to process a tarry, gritty, primeval bitumen sludge into the current clean, green specification for space-age low carbon fuel. And to have to achieve that in an ecological strait jacket affecting stripping, trucking, extraction, hauling, upgrading, piping, refining and transport to markets. Good luck with that mission improbable. A few more added dilemmas: air masses and water bodies cross borders. Alberta alone accounts for more than one third of total absolute emissions in all of Canada. That total was before consideration of emissions from rampaging forest fires, dryness and drought that struck the prairies in 2009 for the second time in seven years. Much power still comes from using coal as the fuel source. Strip mining of the Alberta tar sands has resulted in loss of huge tracts of boreal and other northern forests and wetlands. Habitat loss is displacing wildlife. Species such as woodland caribou and millions of migratory birds are said to be at risk of displacement, endangerment or an early demise due to missing and degraded boreal forest and muskeg area, the implications from tar sands operations, logging and other natural resource extraction activities. Something like a quarter million caribou have already vanished. Boreal forest and peat bog wetlands could prove critical in combating global warming. Their removal adds significantly and cumulatively to carbon emissions and other environmental impacts. In the event of four degrees Celsius average global warming, this region may warm by something like eight degrees Celsius which could trigger a worldwide ecological catastrophe emanating from northern Canada and Russia. Various heavy minerals and high-sulphur organic compounds coat oily sand grains, the raw bitumen. Tar sands operators collectively are emitting an overabundance of poisonous hydrogen sulfide gas, toxic nickel and lead particles and about three times as much greenhouse gases as conventional crude oil production. Plus, as an offshoot of mining activity, they are generating gigantic, seeping, leaking, creeping, moonscape-like "holding" ponds of toxic naphthenic acids, carbolic acid, methyl benzene or toluene (a known female reproductive toxicant) and other volatile organic compounds, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, mercury, arsenic, chromium, cobalt, zinc, iron, other heavy metals and sulfur-laden tailings. One "holding-for-what" toxic lake is considered to be the second largest dam structure on Earth after the Three Gorges Dam in China. Untold numbers of migratory and local birds including mallard ducks and loons have died after landing in these hydrocarbon-fouled "waters". Information recently released by the Alberta government indicate the nature of the ecological demise of the Athabasca River. Tar sands operators are also using prodigious amounts of fresh water resources as if they have no value, up to about five barrels of fresh water for every barrel of heavy oil that ultimately results. Fresh water has significant inelastic demand value these days but I guess its considered to be another freebee for tar sands investors. Up to 10% or 15% of an entire river's water, the exact percentage allowed depending on the overall volume of river water flowing, can be siphoned off for use in these Neanderthal tar sands projects. Most of that water ends up in holding ponds at a later date, hopelessly polluted. Holding ponds that leak and leach, some say, billions of liters of this contaminated water every year. Interceptor ditches and wells miss containment of untold millions of liters of contaminated water every passing day, water that contains arsenic, mercury, hydrocarbons and more toxins from tailings. Where does the contaminated water end up? In-situ bitumen extraction via boreholes and horizontal drilling may use less fresh water than strip-mining, unfortunately, it is associated with even more intense greenhouse gas emissions per unit of production. Fish caught in the Athabasca River have suffered abnormalities, deformities, mutations, tumor or polyp growths and other deformation from contaminated, dirty water. Up to one-quarter of the fish there have some kind of lesion or lump. According to people who live in the area, fish in nearby lakes also may have similar maladies. The potential for andogynous fish, that is one fish having both male and female traits present, clearly exists because the pollution is wreaking havoc with their endocrine systems. Whitefish may be reddish in color from ingestion of various toxins in the water. Apparently, the Athabasca Chipewayn and Mikisew Cree aboriginals living nearby are being afflicted with a rare bile duct cancer, the incidence for which may be attributable to pollution generated at the tar sands. There have been abnormally-high incidences of biliary tract, lymphatic system and blood cancers affecting people who live downstream from tar sand operations. Airborne sulfur from north-central Alberta sources mostly ends up in the neighboring province of Saskatchewan where acid rain has become a significant problem. At what point does the needle in the gauge bend towards unsustainable development? Apparently not yet, as Alberta has ambitious plans for further oil sands extraction and greatly-expanded bitumen upgrading capacity. Reliable information reveals that oil sands operators collectively, far from cutting emissions and pollution, are instead on-course to escalate sulphur dioxide emissions by about one-third; increase nitrous oxide throw-offs by one-quarter; and up the out-gushing of particulate matter and volatile organic compounds by about two-thirds. All of those levels of pollution awaits us, and have been slated to occur here before 2019. High-carbon fuels such as asphaltene, oily coke and the bitumen itself are now routinely being used in extraction and processing of bitumen. So as of sometime during 2008 for most tar sands mining operations, we now also have the consequences of wide-scale combustion of junk fuel to grapple with whereas prior to that relatively clean-burning natural gas had been used as an energy source. There is even a kind of antediluvian production that uses dreadful pitch tar residuum as the fuel with the justification that it helps the operation save more money. Corrosive solvents used to assist steam-driven extraction do not paint a pretty picture ecologically either. As time goes by and each scoop of goop becomes incrementally-more difficult to extract, the economics deteriorate further and the environmental impacts accumulate. Net energy from the combustion-intensive tar sands after construction, strip-mining, processing, upgrading, piping, refining and transporting is not so good. Just cooking gummy, goopy tar sands in the initial extraction procedure consumes the energy equivalent of about one-third of every barrel produced. Vast greenhouse gas emissions generated from heating the bitumen have concentrations sufficiently-diffuse that its possible to efficiently capture only a small proportion of the noxious gases. Further, according to detailed studies, the life-cycle emissions totals of some greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide actually increases by more than one-third due to the various energy-intensive processes involved in underground carbon sequestration. So much for carbon capture and sequestration. What's more, as we have outlined in numerous "Comment" sections at this website, underground carbon sequestration poses unacceptable risks and the legal ramifications are vast, murky and unsettled. The technology, monitoring and feasibility of it have not been established on a commercial scale. Further, some knowledgeable observers say less than 10% of greenhouse gases generated in oil sands mining, upgrading, piping, refining, transport and final use of this carbon-intensive product will ever be feasible to capture and store. Clearly, that would mean the public are wasting their money putting it into tar sands carbon capture and sequestration ventures because there is not likely to be a feasible way to mechanically or chemically engineer a low-tar, "light" tar sands brand of fuel. In Canada at least, governments and big, affected corporations team-up to fund organizations that produce certain, select information and spin to try to alter public opinion. We find this to be a peculiar practice that taxpayers dollars would be spent this way. To date in Canada, the majority of the public have been consistently-polled that they now oppose further development of polluting, carbon-intensive projects such as the oil sands and coal developments. In apparent desperation, a heavy oil industry group in the Province of Alberta has produced an "independent" report funded by the government of Alberta that is recommending expenditure of the extraordinary sum of $3 billion a year of public money to pay for the pollution and reclamation associated with ongoing production at the tar sands. With all due respect, this strikes us as being preposterous, more like a tragic-comedy than a serious proposition. Here is an industry that's been operating for nearly two generations in Alberta and have not yet successfully reclaimed and rejuvenated any operating area to its prior ecological state, or anything approaching same. Thousands of jobs could be created overnight just cleaning up the mess in northern Alberta. We are investigating what we believe to be a much better way forward than this. We know, science is hard. It sure helps if you have had a great deal of experience with it. If you have not and do not want to, well, er', maybe it's time to try some other line of work. We suspect oil companies involved in the tar sands already are very aware of the downsize risks as we have described at length on this web page and elsewhere. We also doubt Edmontonians are going to want an attempt at a force-fed burial of gargantuan quantities of carbon dioxide anywhere near their place. Finally, the time delays are unacceptable with little happening on-the-ground for up to a decade. So, in short, we have at a minimum a quintuple knockout situation - uneconomic, too slow timelines for underground sequestration, too risky, too water-intensive and still way too-polluting an endeavor. We believe Joe Canadian public could conceivably end up with a huge loss or somewhere near a fat-zero return on investment here. Moreover, the opportunity cost associated with any such failure is going to be painful for Canadians to face: Investing significant money in renewable energy sources is proving in many parts of the world to be the essential way forward on the path of progress to ensure advancement of society including relatively risk-free reduction in pollution and maintaining a grip on our climate. We recognize the technology, monitoring and feasibility of hydrocarbon reservoirs with in-situ flooding and flushing of the reservoir using water, steam, natural gas, carbon dioxide or solvents to enhance recovery has been shown over the years but that is not what we are talking about here. It's relatively easy to inject into a reservoir where there is little added formation or fluid pressure and lots of well boles to utilize to measure and maintain pressure and other physical parameters as need be. Risk of blowout, leakage, induced tremors and so on is much reduced relative to the usual wildcat carbon sequestration operation being contemplated. There is a known seal otherwise it would not have been a reservoir in the first place. Furthermore, after about one year or so of storing carbon dioxide generated in Alberta in old hydrocarbon reservoirs, were that ever to take place, there would be no more physical reservoir capacity to store any additional volumes of captured emissions. So then what? Even companies involved in initial demonstration pilot projects of carbon storage and underground sequestration such as the Swedish utility, Vattenfall recognize that the whole effort is only a stopgap measure, that it will not be a permanent solution to the climate change imperative. Maybe they know already that more than three-quarters of carbon dioxide "stored" in hydrocarbon reservoirs has been found in the water not in mineralized rock. This means the risk of it escaping where it is stored along permeable zones, micro-seismic cracks, fractures and faults is much higher. This could be due to natural, drilling-induced or formation pressure-induced phenomena such as minor tremors or induced seismicity, faulting, fracturing, effervescence, chemical reactions or fluid mobility and migration arising from gravitational forces, heat flow, differential solubility and/or pressure gradients. Carbon dioxide gas or liquid pressure inherent in the process of injection to the subsurface tends to weaken any existing faults, fractures, cracks and other zones of weakness. We don't want to be obnoxious but should we play the requiem for these oil sands projects yet? Alberta's Energy Resources Conservation Board does now have the power to shut down oil sands operators who fail to manage tailings or execute reclamation responsibilities as agreed. However, after more than a generation, only one mined area has been finally-reclaimed but in a state quite different than the original setting. Reclamation activity will at best come to a steady state where a new tailings pond can be created if an old one is cleaned up. Who is going to pay for environmental liabilities and when does it start? Incredibly, the answer appears to be the general public in Canada even though they generally do not realize that yet. Furthermore, a clear majority of Canadians are for halting oil sands expansion now but that so far does not appear to affect the intentions of the powers-that-be in Canada. Integrated oil and gas companies with significant oil sands operations face large and uncertain costs and contingent liability for reclamation and carbon capture and sequestration. They appear to be counting on burying or off-loading pollution downstream and downwind into the "natural" background to help ensure the ongoing viability of tar sands projects. Ontario is grand central station for many manufacturing and refining entities. Hamilton, Ontario is a gritty steel-making hub. In Windsor, just over the bridge from Detroit, diesel fumes accumulate in the sorry atmosphere of a mega-transit, border-crossing bottleneck for Canada-US tractor-trailer commerce. Happily, Ontario now has leading-edge feed-in tariffs to encourage accelerated development of renewable energy. Ontario also leads in Canada by virtue of its plans to get off of coal-fired electrical generation altogether by 2014. They aim to replace the shortfall with renewable energy sources that come on-stream such as from offshore wind power projects in Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. British Columbia, Quebec and Manitoba's hydropower capacity have been bright spots for many years. Canada in fact has excess, exportable hydropower which also satisfies almost 60% of domestic electricity production needs. The current goal for Canada is to have 90% of electricity come from non-emitting sources by 2025. Quebec unto itself is on a par with much of Europe in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and leads Canada in this regard. They aim to be 20% below their 1990 level of emissions by 2020. Vehicle emissions standards are leading edge, similar to that of California. Quebec has been the scene for many of Canada's most polluted rivers, the cause of which is attributed to excess fertilizer, manure, pesticides, industrial effluent and other waste that ends up in the waterways. Obviously, extensive convenience gas flaring by oil and gas company operators in northeastern BC is going to augment Canada's greenhouse gas woes. Whoever is doing it should have been taxed yesterday for it not at some future date. Chum and sockeye salmon runs have dwindled in 2009 in BC and this is at least partly traceable to climate change. As fish disappear, so do bears including grizzlies, black bears and white-coated spirit bears. Wildfires rampaged widely in BC due to summer of 2009 heat and crackling dryness. Clearly, tourists who seek the great outdoor escape to BC's wild areas are not going to like what they hear at this point. Canada has a big problem dealing with mining effluent. Some are dumbfounded to realize natural lakes can through some sleight of regulation be transformed as a convenience to mining interests into designated mining tailings dump sites. Just a reminder - trout and many other species of plants and animals live in those lakes and rivers, and people eat the fish. Beyond this issue, many known toxins outlawed in EU, US and other jurisdictions are still used commercially in Canada. The safety of chemicals, food, food additives and consumer products generally should be assured before same ends up in the Canadian marketplace with Canadians effectively serving as unwitting subjects in the experiments. One entire class of common birds, the aerial insectivores are in dramatic decline in Canada. What's happening to the whip-poor-wills among others? Biologists apparently have not yet pinpointed exactly why this loss is occurring but undoubtedly could make some unsurprising inspired guesses. Our guess is it's a result of lost habitat from forests being decimated by strip-mining, other extractive industries, infestations, wild fires, and more. The situation has reached a point in Canada where observers are saying Canada's forests are now collectively considered to be a net source of, not sink for, greenhouse gases. It will take a generation to turn that around even if a concerted effort begins now. The coldest days of winters in Canada are reported by the British Meteorological Office to be up to four degrees Celsius warmer than just 50 years ago. Little wonder Canadians cannot seem to kill off the pine beetle infestation which has wiped out about half of BC's trees and is still on the march in BC and Alberta. As we all know from breathing forest fire smoke, burning wood is a very noxious undertaking and results in significant releases of greenhouse gases, black carbon and more. Incinerating wood is very inefficient and obviously it can take a generation or more to grow a replacement for that log burning in that fireplace. Its a far cry from being carbon neutral and the same can be said for burning leaf logs. But we think wood-pelletizing for bio-fuel oil; production of bio-butanol or other liquid biofuel from sawdust, wood dust, twigs, leaves, wood chips and cellulosic waste material; non-conventional biomass processing and biochar options need to be investigated and pursued to spawn new, forest-green industry segments and to salvage leftovers from dead or diseased trees, woody waste material, sewage and other organics and materials still put in landfills. We do not believe plain-vanilla aerobic burning of wood chips is a sustainable course of action nor is high temperature gasification of various junk. Pyrolysis, use of pyrolyzers and pyrolitic processes represent the new mantra in dealing with many kinds of waste, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions including recovery of methane gas for use as fuel not venting directly into the air. Huge, high-tech autoclaves now exist to handle some of the colossal load of garbage still generated by our throw-away society. Any process of combustion of biomass for energy has to be analyzed very carefully, on a case to case basis, to determine the joint economic and ecological feasibility of a project proposal. | ||||||
|
Australia: Australia and Canada export vast volumes of coal,
heavy oil and lower-carbon fossil fuels to India, China, Japan, South Korea, United States and other
countries, outsize amounts of
carbon-intensive fossil fuels relative to the size of their populations.
Australia is now trying to set in motion the hawking of vast exports of
horrendous brown coal to India. Some 80% of Australia's scourge of black coal is
exported. They
also are heavily involved heavily in mineral extraction and processing
activities and are significant producers of aluminum, an energy intensive
undertaking. Australia and Canada stand out again
and again as being among, or are, the highest per capita emitters and polluters
among major industrialized countries. Canada and Australia are
relatively-sparsely populated but have sizeable resource-based economies that
are generators of enormous quantities of pollutants. On a per capita basis,
both rank among the world's worst offenders as emitters of greenhouse gases and
as generators of waste generally.
High levels of vehicular emissions and
industrial pollutants are especially noticeable in larger, congested metropolitan
areas. Rush hours stink!
Their saving grace is having modest populations versus the
vastness of the physical geography. This has meant that, so far at least,
ecosystems in many areas of their country-sides have not been pressed into
service beyond their ecological carrying capacity. Both countries have
belatedly made somewhat significant moves into wind power. We sincerely hope much
greater use of renewable energy takes place and that it happens in an
abbreviated time frame.
Performance with respect to the Kyoto Protocol has been fairly disastrous: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have gone up by more than one-quarter since 1990, Australia's by more than three-quarters since 1990. If these countries do not pay-up to cover their own shortfalls with respect to this agreement as Japan willingly did, there would seem to be a problem. They appear to believe commitments made regarding reducing their throw-off of heat-trapping gases is some kind of high-level game. For example, the same lagging bozos who are finally supposed to pay for polluting are then attempting to be eligible to get the doe right back again from the government as some kind of compensation. We don't think so. In this cartoon, they realize there is Sylvester™ the Cat and Tweety Bird™, but ostensibly they also believe there is no watchdog with teeth like Brutus™. Further, the general population are presumably thought to be naive, vacuous or oblivious to the shenanigans. So fossil fuel mandarins operating in these countries together with their investors, advisors and financiers easily influence politicians and regulators to find a way to still make it happen for them business-as-usual only with some public relations, political or marketing spin to smooth the way clear. Many, if not most, Australians live near the ocean so are vulnerable to global sea level rise and storm surges. We assume they must be eco-conscious by this point in time. Given the scorching heat and vast outback, we may be forgiven for thinking they must have been going green with solar power years ago. The country also has vast wind and geothermal energy potential. Surprisingly, this is what it has not developed. What forms of energy has it developed? Australia singlehandedly supplies the world marketplace with an estimated one-quarter of the total demand for "black" coal. If greenhouse gas emissions from export industries are attributed 50% to the exporting country, which seems reasonable to us, then Australia's per capita emissions are now way too high, perhaps half-again higher than the situation would be without their coal exports. Our view is that Australia's current environmental plan borders on the ludicrous: it facilitates continued unabated polluting in Australia, that is full-offsetting of emissions generated in Australia going forward by contributing funds to alleged reductions thereof in other countries. Moreover, they are set to dish out to Australian industry for free up to 90% of permits to do exactly this! Australia still relies heavily on coal for 83% of electricity generation and is showing few signs yet that it realizes what a sunset industry or segment is. Even though Australia still relies on coal for 80% of its power generation, the industry is to receive billions of dollars in payments from government in the next five years and be allowed to continue polluting virtually for free. We support development of Gorgon gas fields. Cooling gas production to liquid form then shipping it abroad can only hasten the demise of coal in Australia. Moreover, it gives the world the chance to see if carbon dioxide sequestration on a massive scale will work. The plan is to jam unwanted, liquefied carbon dioxide into formations quite far below Barrow Island and monitor it to verify if its staying put where its intended to be and for how long. If it does leak out, Australian's collectively will be picking up the lion's share of the tab for the cost and consequences of possibly-gargantuan additional carbon pollution. As such, despite the environmental calamity which also includes five years of climate-induced drought resulting in 60% reduction in grain harvests, Australia plans to 2020 have it continuing to be one of the world's largest polluters per person. Australia plans to have 20% of electricity sourced from wind, solar, geothermal, wave, tides and other forms of renewable energy by 2020 which is good news. However, they also anticipate their heat-trapping emissions overall will rise by some 20% or more during that same time frame. Prior to 2007, Australia was already the highest per capita emitter of carbon dioxide from agricultural activities. The latest global greenhouse gas emissions figures for 2007 are testament to the fact pollution in Australia is still ramping up dangerously not down. 2008 figures also show total greenhouse gas emissions up another 1.1%. If emissions from croplands and grasslands were included, the 2008 rise would be much greater due to drought. Increasing incidence of wildfires makes the situation even worse. All in, they could now be as much as an astonishing 80% or more beyond their 1990 levels. Not 8% above, 80%! Unreal. Some lakes are so short of fresh water due mainly to extended drought, the lakebeds have become laden with various toxins and acids including hydrochloric and sulfuric acid. Most native river red gum trees, some that are 500 years old, are dying off or have capitulated already due mainly to reduced fresh water volume. On the coast, Sydney Harbor is said to have seaweed with the highest levels of lead and copper contamination ever measured. The gray waters of the Murray-Darling River system have reached perilous levels of pollution with acidity comparable in stretches to pure sulfuric acid. Rising salinity and acidity is affecting fish to the point where the lowly carp now constitutes about half the remaining biomass of fish that can survive there. High acid-sulfate content of soil near the Murray River is degrading vegetation and causing dead zones to form as it oxidizes into sulfuric acid, then runs off into the river. Aluminum, cadmium, nickel and iron have been found to be far beyond safe levels where the river runs into the ocean. Likely a ramification of nearby mining and smelter activity, we also have the sorry situation in the city of Mt Isa where lead-laden dust is affecting the health and welfare of many people. We have a heavy metal mine effluent ecological disaster affecting Dalpura Creek. We also now have Ipswich, a place near the gruesome setting near the Bremer River where there have been many independent sightings of two-headed snakes and rats. People familiar with the area claim this river has been a receptacle for various effluents over the years including chemicals and many toxic heavy metals. So they are not totally shocked by the descent of their life-space environs into the realm of eco-genetic mutation. Australia has accounted for almost half the world's mammal extinctions over the past 200 years. Australia is now among the top five countries in total number of threatened species and biodiversity has dropped. Its apparent that many species cannot now cope with the effects of increases in global temperature, never mind 2020 or 2050. Endangered species range from certain frogs and possums to marine turtles to tree kangaroos to hare wallabies and koala bears. The current range area covered by kangaroos is predicted to be cut in half by about 2030 as their grazing areas become parched and more water holes dry out. Three-quarters of the number of shorebirds that existed a generation ago have disappeared. Furthermore, many seabirds that heretofore have depended on the vitality of the Great Barrier Reef are in big trouble. This is in part because their food sources such as fish and plankton are increasingly descending to deeper, cooler water as a consequence of global warming. The other part is the Great Barrier Reef itself is now steeped in ecological risks. This reef among others are now listed on the morning line of many scientists as being "even-money favorites" to become before 2049 ghostly, pale-gray-colored limestone rock formations. And little else besides thanks to the devastating effects of coral bleaching brought on by warmer, more acidic and polluted ocean water. Reef ecosystem degradation has gotten to the point where visits there from divers, nature lovers and other tourists from far and wide have decidedly been on a downswing. Once marine life populations, ocean biochemistry, temperature and salinity start changing on a macro-scale, its going to take a long-term sustained and determined effort by virtually every country on Earth to get the oceans and coral reefs back to anything resembling "the way we were". | ||||||
|
Indonesia, Vietnam: Indonesia and Vietnam have very high
incidences of environmentally-induced illnesses resulting in disease, poisoning
and/or death. To illustrate the prevailing mentality, asbestos cement and
construction products are still in widespread use ostensibly because asbestos is
relatively "cheap" and assists their rapid race-to-the-top (or bottom) growth
spiral. They are fast-growing, densely-populated countries that historically
have been, and frequently
still are, subject to over-logging, slash-and-burn agricultural land-clearing and
sometimes-huge smoky peat land and forest fires. Especially around Indonesia,
perhaps the
third-biggest greenhouse gas emitter worldwide, this results in enormous hazy areas having
reduced penetration of sunlight. 80% of Indonesia's climate-warming emissions
are a result of deforestation and loss of peat lands including the consequences
from smoldering fires and drying-out.
Indonesia has too-many threatened species. Deforestation and loss of habitat in tropical rainforests is an ongoing big concern not only because of endangered species but also due to the consequent reduced global capacity for uptake of carbon dioxide by plant life. Half of Sumatra's forests have been destroyed already often due to further plantation and forest industry activity. In Kalimantan and Sumatra, deforestation for agricultural and industrial development has led to countless majestic animals such as elephants, tigers and orangutans either disappearing, being on the run or some kind of rampage or holed-up in orphanages. The survivability of four of every five primates is threatened. Half or Borneo's rainforests are gone and every year some 10% of Borneo orangutans disappear, that's forever. But now we have good news and perhaps the beginning of a turnaround for Indonesia: the apparent recent agreement by all Sumatra governors to ensure preservation of rainforest and peat lands in Sumatra. The recent waste management law passed in Indonesia aims to condemn violators, fine them and perhaps also land them in jail for up to 10 years. The Indonesian government says there will be no more land use conversion to plantations, in particular, for production of palm oil, of peat lands, carbon-rich forests or other prime forest areas needed to preserve biodiversity. In Indonesia, rampant deforestation that, for example, pretty-well wiped out the entirety of Kalimantan's rainforests, has also now encroached into critical carbonaceous peat land areas. Forest fires, other deforestation and decaying organic matter in peat lands all result in huge releases of greenhouse gases. Thus peat swamp forests constitute another of our "wild cards" because peat lands, despite their rather limited geographic extent, hold about one-quarter of the Earth's soil and vegetation stores of carbon. Therefore, they should be left as unaltered ecosystems not drained or otherwise developed by economic actors. This is truly another hot potato issue. Moreover, the emissions story is still incomplete here because Indonesia, the country with the world's largest extent of coal-bearing material, is already one-third dependent on dirty coal for electric power generation. Worse, it appears to be hell-bent on adding capacity of tens of thousands of megawatts more of smoky coal-fired plants over the next several years such that coal burning will about double by 2011 and quadruple by 2017. This will boost their overall pollution totals much higher. Indonesia continues to subsidize production of coal-driven electricity. Is it any wonder they have a serious air pollution problem including acid rain? Chlorine, nitrates, sulfates, mercury and other airborne metal particles, soot, ozone and hydrochloric and sulphuric acid mist are not anyone's idea of a tropical paradise getaway. Time to get with it and shape up. Deforestation and land use changes affecting forested areas and peat lands still cause most emissions. Indonesia's questionable status quo plan is for emissions to rise by 20% from 2005 levels by 2020 then before 2030 to ratchet up another 30% versus 2020 levels. Change is clearly needed here. Its also true more land use change-related emissions should be expected here compared to many other countries that undertook considerable land development activity in the past. Happily, change may come. Indonesia's new goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2020 versus the status quo or business-as-usual which would then be an improvement but only relative to the grim prior numbers cited above. Their new objective includes reducing the rate of deforestation by 85% or so by 2020 but apparently does not specify targets for afforestation or reforestation which is necessary to restore their ecological balance. Before 2030, Indonesia's forests are supposed to no longer be a net emitter, rather will become a carbon sink again. Furthermore, Indonesia now has much-toughened environmental rules, regulations and laws: If someone intentionally conducts activities that causes pollution to exceed tolerable levels of water, air and environmental quality, they will face a mandatory minimum three year jail sentence plus a fine of 3 billion rupiah and up. Indonesia has also been a problematic user of mercury to extract gold cheaply and easily. As a consequence of mostly small-scale artisanal gold mining, Kalimantan has many waterways with high concentrations of mercury. Furthermore, according to Indonesian sources, one-third of consumer waste is burned and one-sixth is thrown into rivers or deposited on public lands. Four of every five rivers in Indonesia are said to be in the government's highest category, meaning 80% of rivers are currently listed as being severely polluted with human, agricultural and industrial waste. Needless to say, do not drink the water. Nearly half of Indonesians still make-do without toilets and, unsurprisingly, most excrement and other raw sewage ends up in bodies of water. Fish and shellfish are often killed directly by the high concentration of effluents, garbage and raw sewage present. Air quality in Indonesia's cities is generally abysmal. As an example, residents of Jakarta are said to be many times more likely to breathe unhealthy air than air you can survive on over the long term. The sky is usually gray and hazy. We also have the Surabaya's and Medan's of our world. Pollution-gushing pedicabs ply the streets despite attempts by authorities to have operators upgrade to compressed natural gas or junk it in favor of an ordinary bicycle. If Indonesians survive man-made disaster scenes they still have the ever-present possibility of earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, mass wasting flows and other natural catastrophes to contend with as a consequence of living in close proximity to the Pacific Rim of Fire. Jakarta is slowly subsiding, more than two meters in a generation (gulp!). Indonesia is slowly developing some of their vast geothermal potential but we remain hopeful they are switching into overdrive on this front. Increased urbanization and auto-mobility coupled with low income per capita and tendency of people to smoke are also big negatives for Indonesia and Vietnam. Cigarettes here are among the cheapest in the world and hordes of people gasp on them at regular intervals as if there was no tomorrow. Both those countries export large volumes of coal, in particular, to China and India. This may not be such a hot idea as we are all interconnected by the entrails of waste-streams. Apparently undaunted by the maelstrom of pollution to date, Vietnam has been planning on quadrupling its electric generating capacity before 2020 relying mostly on coal to support that growth. We highly recommend ditching coal. Both wind and solar power have tremendous natural potential in Vietnam. Possible cellulosic bio-fuel sources like rice husks, hyacinth weeds and others need to be pursued aggressively because then same tend to come out of waterways instead of being dumped in waterways that still flow forward. There is also hope that their natural gas reserves can be utilized more widely, displacing dirtier diesel and petrol. However, conversion to, or use of, compressed methane is currently beyond the reach of the vast majority of individual vehicle owners in Vietnam. Unfortunately, demand for energy especially from industry is an order of magnitude, that's ten times, greater than the expected growth of renewable, clean energy sources of energy up to 2025. Industrial coal-burning activities and countless grungy, inefficient vehicles including huge numbers of old soot and dust spewing motorbikes are significant contributors to air pollution in Vietnam. Major cities currently have an atmospheric backdrop of dust, grime and various combustion products. Vehicles cause almost three-quarters of the air pollution in urban areas according to environmental officials in Vietnam. Unfortunately, mass transit is limited presently. Air quality in Hanoi is appalling. A hopeful sign of better things to come is that solar-powered cookers, hot plates, water heaters and battery chargers are beginning to take hold especially in the countryside and villages. This transition cannot happen a moment too soon as even in some villages in rural areas the air is heavily polluted with toxic gases, tiny metal oxide flakes, rubber particulates, benzopyrene, you name it. Old tires are burned in, or shipped via the country. Some localities still have bad soil contamination from the highly-toxic defoliant dioxin that has not yet been cleaned up, for example, in Lake Bien Hung or surrounding soil. Also, Da Nang and Phu Cat are still herbicide hotspots. Bronchial asthma, diarrhea, petechial fever, poisoning, fetus malformation and infectious and neurological diseases generally have all been increasing and a government report blames environmental pollution. Vietnam has also been smarting due to a decade-long drought in the north. Hopefully, the drought is not caused by global warming which would heighten the likelihood of a persistent, or at least recurring, problem. Authorities estimate that global warming of two degrees Celsius will be sufficient to cause submergence of nearly half the Mekong delta area, an event that would be a calamity of monumental proportions. A one meter rise of water level would be enough to swamp one-third of the delta. Tens of millions of Vietnamese live here and it is Vietnam's agricultural heartland. Unfortunately, we already have serious saltwater incursion up the Mekong River delta area. People are pointing the finger at global warming as the cause of excessive melting of Himalayan glaciers, increased storm intensity including torrential rainfall, and rising sea levels. But also there is condemnation of the tremendous amount of damming involving several countries along the length of the Mekong River progressively reducing downstream velocity and sediment-carrying capacity of the river. Damming is in-place for irrigation purposes, flood control and hydroelectricity generation, too. This generally means that near the terminus of the Mekong delta, there is considerably-less water outflow pressure remaining in the river to counteract influx of ocean saltwater. Sounds to us like more salt will end up mixing with the natural fresh water supply. Plus there now exists a greater risk of flooding of low-lying areas in the region which could affect millions of people and huge slices of land. Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho are likely in big trouble as the specter of global warming sets in. One estimate projected that a one meter rise in sea level near Vietnam could impact 10% of the population, principally those who live or work in the extensive low-lying coastal and deltaic areas of the country. Alarmingly, average temperatures in many localities have been rising at a pace of one degree Celsius per generation for two generations. The ocean impinging on Vietnam's coastline has been rising at a rate of two meters per century for more than a decade. A four to five degree Celsius temperature rise would very likely bypass some serious Earthly tipping points unleashing relatively-abrupt rises in global sea levels of several meters. Such a prospect would be so calamitous in its implications we do not want to dwell on it. Rather, we want to focus effort on stopping further global temperature increases from happening, to lower risk that various catastrophes become inevitable. Vietnam has seen a net gain in trees lately due to monolithic plantation-style reforestation projects but restoring biodiversity may be a long and arduous process. Acid rain originating beyond Vietnam's borders is said to account for about one-third their rainfall. The Mekong, Sai Gon, Ngu Huyen Khe, Can Tho, Thi Doi, Dung, Bo Ot, Ngang and several other rivers in Vietnam are in places severely polluted mostly as a result of steel-making and other industrial and agricultural sources. A 70 kilometer length of the Day River cannot support any life. Furthermore, large die-offs of aquatic life have occurred along the Nhue River. Fish have also been succumbing en masse to pollution in many lakes in Vietnam. Only about 10% of Mekong delta factories treat waste water before discharging it into the Mekong River. Use of toxic, illegal pesticides abounds. The Mekong River has been found to have very high levels of PCB's, DDT and mercury. Unsurprisingly, the Mekong dolphin is on the brink of extinction. The Thi Vai River has been declared devoid of life over a length of at least 10 kilometers. Industrial zones may not have water treatment plants and so may be a significant source of pollutants. The Sai Gon River, whose main tributary is the Dong Nai, also has acute water pollution from microbes, manganese, oil, ammonia, iron, lead, nitrogen, phosphorus, etc. that go far beyond any semblance of a safety standard. One of the Dong Nai's streams is ecologically dead in sections up to many kilometers long. Canals that feed into these polluted rivers are often ecologically dead or have borderline levels of dissolved oxygen left. Some say most of the entire Sai Gon River system could be virtually null and void of life by 2019. Hundreds of waterways in and around Ho Chi Minh City are used as dumping areas for industrial effluents, medical waste and residential garbage. Many medical facilities have no capacity to treat waste and merely discharge it into a river. Some canals such as the Ba Bo are ecological disaster scenes, are pitch black in color and rank in smell. The air in Ho Chi Minh City contains ominous amounts of horrible stuff ranging from carcinogenic petrochemicals like benzene to toxic heavy metals like lead to noxious gases like carbon monoxide to suffocating quantities of dust from cement, construction and transportation activities. Hanoi's water and air quality are horrible, both being laced with a variety of toxic substances. Maybe only one-third of industrial zones have even the most basic wastewater treatment facilities. Many rivers in and around Hanoi are contaminated with heavy metals, other suspended solids and coliform bacteria. The oxygen being consumed in waterways is far beyond what's possible in order to still support most aquatic life. In sum, chemical oxygen demand is so intense and water quality so poor in parts of Vietnam that agricultural productivity has declined significantly. Perhaps one-quarter of water wells contain arsenic-laced water unfit for use as gray water let alone drinking or cooking. The government is funding a plan to try to clean up rivers in Vietnam. As well, Vietnam now has environmental police so we hope various improvements are in the offing. Widespread deployment of newfangled automatic water quality testing stations along rivers might mean automatic nabbing of many more water pollution culprits. Authorities are determined to boost Vietnam's sorry record on the reduce, recycle and reuse mantra to far beyond the 10% level of all garbage that it was at not long ago. | ||||||
|
India: Both India and China have populations that will
soon be in the 1.5 to two billion range, numbers that are far beyond their
ecological survivability that can cope with perhaps 500 million people
in each country.
It is an unwelcome empirical observation that, all else being equal, in any
country eco-risk increases commensurate
with rising population density.
The physical reality of our Earth and the health and wellness
of life as we know it is quite oblivious to the sheer number of people living in
any particular region or country.
Ecological survivability in an area is threatened by the
continuing escalation of pollutants that affects it. That is the basis for
our questioning why authorities in India are contemplating perhaps a doubling of heat-trapping emissions
in India by 2020 and a possible tripling by 2030 relative to their current
levels. Various pollutant levels in India are already unsustainably large in
magnitude versus the ecological carrying capacity of India. At this juncture,
there is no escaping this finding. Adaptation is not going to save us. Black carbon "soot" in the upper atmosphere above these two countries is estimated to block almost 10% of sunlight that would otherwise reach the earth's surface in China and there is about a 7% dimming above India. China and India together account for somewhere in the range of one-quarter to one-third of the world's soot emissions, a form of black carbon. Much of this soot emanates from burning coal, diesel fuel, wood and dung. Both of these countries are already heavily hooked on coal yet are apparently gearing up for dramatic expansion of their coal extraction and coal-fired power industries. We hope they do not tempt doomsday scenarios by continuing to start yet another coal plant operating every few days. Or by importing more coal or heavy crude. Coal or other carbon-intensive sources still provide at least half of all energy in India. Coal still drives more than half their electric power grid. Its deployment as a fuel must be ratcheted back from these levels and soon. Widespread fly ash and coal dust coats everything in its path. Very sadly as it often affects children the most, in India, China and likely other coal-dependent countries, too, widespread, concentrated use and misuse of coal is primarily responsible for the medical phenomena of cancer, metal and radiation poisoning arising from radionuclides and metal particles such as lead and mercury contained in coal combustion and fly ash deposit related air, water and soil pollution. Noxious-combustion ships and boats add significantly to the pollution burden in India as does air traffic. An uncountable number of smaller, cheaper vehicles with internal combustion engines are being pumped-out to try to capture more of the lion's share of the personal income curve. What can the outlook be given that India is rapidly developing an automobile culture and affordability is ramping up for huge swathes of their populations? The distinct possibility that there will be another half a billion vehicle drivers on planet Earth is a very unwelcome prospect unless new vehicle emissions are near-zero. Fuel subsidies encourage more driving not less driving. Thick layers of brownish-gray clouds, fog and smog hang over parts of the country including many congested metropolitan areas and industrial zones. Ground-level ozone pollution is already so concentrated from burning of fossil fuels and other materials and substances that India has reduced crop yields in many areas as a consequence. Governments are starting to crack down in an attempt to roll back pollution especially from atrocious diesel vehicles but the hour is very late. As of now, vehicular and other emissions are expected to escalate, perhaps dramatically. Strict fuel efficiency standards across the entire transportation sector will be necessary soon merely to maintain a lingering hope of containing air pollution. Further, as greater and greater numbers of people desire and expect a connection to the power grid, one would anticipate a significant escalation in demand for electricity. In the so-called business-as-usual scenario ceteris paribus this implies even-greater plumes of planet-warming gases being released into the air. According to projections, India will soon become the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Half their energy has been derived from murky, carbon-intensive fuels like coal and oil. Coal use over the decade to 2019 is slated to about-double to some one billion tonnes a year. They have a very weak official goal of reducing carbon intensity by 20% to 25% by 2020 relative to 2005 levels. India is apparently imposing a carbon tax on coal which may be seen as an initial impetus to engineer the fast and massive transition to clean energy that is required for India to stave off ecological disaster scenes. There is serious deforestation, biomass burning, soil erosion, overgrazing and other maladies associated with huge numbers of people trying to eek out a living or subsistence from working the land. Two-thirds of India's land area is degraded, arid or semi-arid. Here, soil has become parched, depleted, alkaline or too salty. Or its been eroded away by wind, heavy rain or flash floods. Agricultural practices are often not environmentally friendly. For example, rice paddies could be drained of water at mid-season to reduce release of methane gas into the atmosphere. Put ducks on the rice paddies to eat weeds and pests instead of so much insecticide and fertilizer. There are nearly half a billion cows, sheep and goats. Livestock are said to release more greenhouse gases collectively than vehicles. All those lovely cows, sheep and goats whose meat and dairy products are coveted for local use and export, they do have rotten table manners. Its called methanogenesis. Moreover, the agriculture-driven economy has major issues due to raw sewage, pesticides, insecticides, fertilizers including nitrates, phosphorous and other chemicals percolating or being flushed directly into bodies of water or as leachate. Synthetic pesticides and insecticides banned in many other countries such as DDT are frequently still used in India. We have radiation-poisoned, cancer-stricken areas such as Bathinda where concentrations of uranium and thorium contaminate the air and water. It is becoming clear that the smokestacks of, and fly-ash residues from, nearby thermal coal-fired power plants are to blame. We have the coal smoke and dust centers of Korba and Singrauli. Unfortunately, there are many others like it in India and other countries, too. Furthermore, we have mining calamity outbacks such as Sukinda and Vapi and chemical, textile, leather and tannery towns like Ranipet and Ambur. There exists many other chemical and greenhouse gas pollution-stressed industrial areas, too including Ankleshwar, Chanda, Angul-Talcher, Mahul, Kali, Vellore and more. Overall, the government recognizes that nearly half of India's land and soil has been degraded and eroded significantly. The soil has been depleted and is too alkaline, often having a high content of salt, sodium and potassium hydroxides and ammonium. Hence, many waterways also become unnaturally alkaline. Too many years have gone by where the land was pounded relentlessly with various chemical fertilizers, pesticides, saltwater, polluted water and air-borne pollutants. Further, barely one-eighth their land area has healthy, dense forest cover. Happily, billions of dollars are to be allocated over many years to reforestation projects in India in a tremendous effort to restore forest lands to their full potential. We sense an ecological turnaround in the making. Environmental protection regulation, court and tribunal systems are being enhanced considerably. There is firm acknowledgement that the state of India's air, water and ecosystems constitutes essential, life-sustaining natural capital that cannot be spent. If it is spent in any country, then we would expect the quality of life there to deteriorate rather than improve steadily as it could with a measured, eco-conscious approach to promote sustainable economic growth. The Indus, Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers all depend on Himalayan glaciers to replenish fresh water. If that does not happen, food shortages may eventually result from reduced crop yields. Flow in the Ganges is already reduced due to damming and an abundance of irrigation canals. Near Varanasi, the volume of water is lessening and the volume of pollutants ending up in the water is increasing, not a good combination. Water table levels in many parts of India have been dropping due to the population's overuse relative to the diminishing volume of Himalayan glaciers. The climate change phenomenon is increasingly affecting the natural cycle that historically had faithfully replenished both the amount of glaciers and fresh water supply. Demand for water simply outstrips reduced replenishment and supply so ground water table levels fall. If too much glacial melting occurs or global sea level rises more than about two meters, people living in low-lying coastal areas like Goa or cities, for example, Mumbai and Kolkata are in big trouble from the attendant flood risk. Erosion has already affected one-quarter of India's coastline as the ocean transgresses existing shorelines. Sea level is rising faster along the east India coastline than the global average rate. Consequently, saltwater incursion from the ocean up rivers already occurs on a regular basis. West Bengal and other aquifers are contaminated with unhealthy levels of arsenic, iron and fluoride. Perhaps the majority of people in Kolkata already drink contaminated, salty water. Some of it contains unsafe concentrations of metals such as copper, lead, iron, arsenic and chromium. Clearly, this means Kolkata is very vulnerable to rise in sea level because the consequences from same are already evident even to children. Many locations near the Ganges River have high concentrations of arsenic in the groundwater which ultimately manifests itself in residents as any of various cancers or cardiovascular disease. Ganges and Yamuna Rivers are further polluted from discharge of untreated sewage, garbage, fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides, rodenticides, corpses and industrial effluent directly into the rivers. That's right - fish don't swim in these rivers nor do birds land on them. Water is generally not potable directly in India. Chemicals and various bacteria, in particular, fecal coliform proliferate in surface and groundwater. In Jaipur for example, the incidence of water contamination is nearly-wholesale which cannot come as a big surprise if only 10% of sewage is treated. Don't come too close to the rivers or you may come down with typhoid, jaundice, polio, dysentery or what-have-you from contact with the spray alone. The Ganges River is in parts more like a viscoelastic fluid that oozes rather than a waterway that flows. Near and through Delhi, the Yamuna River is deathly dark and rank in smell but at least now we hear a clean-up is happening. In various localities there are alarming levels of fecal coliforms from organic waste in waterways such that people should not be going in the water or be in contact with its spray. The Damanganga River in places contains alarming levels of heavy metals, in particular, deadly mercury. Many more river segments and arms have next to nil dissolved oxygen meaning life as we knew it in those waters is virtually absent nowadays. According to a 2009 report prepared for the Indian government, 85% of industrial zones in India are "severely polluted" thanks significantly to a whole spectrum of gritty manufacturers such as chemical, steel, textile and food processing plants. India is a powerhouse producer of pharmaceuticals and chemicals. However, there have been reports of astronomical concentrations of biochemical and drug residues found in the water in some localities such as near Hyderabad. India also has a problem with electronic waste piling up in certain areas of New Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and other places. Combustible chemical soup mixtures of toxic elements and compounds included lead, iron, cadmium, mercury, chromium, barium, beryllium, nickel, arsenic, cobalt, chlorofluorocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls including poly-vinyl chloride residues, brominated flame retardant chemicals and more which some time later had a tendency to show up in groundwater and other places. India also participated in the sorry process of incinerating sometimes-imported toxin-laced refuse and other contaminated waste in order to produce electric energy and waste heat from the "fuel". We are not in favor of pell-mell burning of noxious or other materials, the sorry results of which are then back circulating in the air and water. However, for example, we do think production of biochar from wood waste and agricultural leftovers in an anaerobic combustion process has potential as long as agricultural workers and other people do not burn it openly (aerobically) instead of tilling or burying it. This segment has a happy ending because India has recently introduced some of the strictest requirements anywhere for manufacturers of various electronic paraphernalia to take personal responsibility for the life-cycle management of products they sell. This includes ensuring its safe salvage, refurbishment, return, recycle, retooling, reuse, whatever. No further importation of used electronic equipment is allowed other than for the expressed purposes of repair and refurbishment. India does stipulate that biofuels make-up one-fifth of petrol and diesel by 2017. Nevertheless, ghastly pollution problems persist in many regions. Mumbai is said to be the second most polluted metropolitan area in India after Kolkata. New Delhi is also a grim bastion for pollution. New Delhi has horrid air quality arising from industry and vehicles. Further, there are startling instances of additional indoor toxicity, for example, from breathing the dust emanating off lead-based paint used. Cities such as New Delhi still have less than 3% of vehicles running on cleaner-burning natural gas. Kolkata also has dreadful air quality with many old buses and commercial trucks continually plying the streets. Places like Kolkata, Bhubaneswar, Ranchi, Lucknow, Ludhiana, Raipur, Patna, Jamshedpur, Ahmedabad, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad, Bhiwadi, Visakhapatnam, Guwahati, Ankleshwar, Chandrapur, Vadodara and Nagpur are also beset with various problems involving high concentrations of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, benzene, benzopyrene, other polyaromatic hydrocarbons, black carbon, metals and/or other suspended particulate pollution including coal, cement, silica and lime dust. Innumerable small-time rickshaw drivers burn junky blended fuels including kerosene and naptha. Subsidizing kerosene, diesel and other carbon-rich fuels is a bad idea. What chance do children have in life if they're breathing this stuff? In Kolkata, the answer alarmingly is about 50:50. The latest horrifying medical laboratory test results reveal that one of every two citizens sampled from old Calcutta have lung cancer, emphysema or other serious respiratory disease. Developing a precise legal and regulatory basis for pinpointing egregious sources of pollution and where ecological breakdown is occurring is a very good idea. We believe this is happening to a certain extent in India. This approach should enable authorities to monitor, verify and pursue various offending commercial interests such that they can be brought into line or shut down. As it stands now, many firms with coal-powered boilers and what-not openly vent black coal dust whenever they think they can get away with it. That's despite the fact millions of Indians are becoming sick from breathing such poor quality air. In particular, an increasing number of children are developing chronic bronchial asthma from atmospheric and other pollution, especially in the big cities where garbage and raw sewage disposal also tends to be problematic. There is lots of carbon dioxide, sulfur and nitrous oxides emitted by heavy duty diesel fuel burners and carbon monoxide from two-wheelers. Diesel fuel-fired power generators cast a crimson brown overprint into the haze of other air pollution. We also have high concentrations of ozone at street level. Both vehicular exhaust and high levels of hydrogen sulfide emissions from industrial sources have been blamed for respiratory ailments and illnesses. Kolkata children especially are said to be afflicted with very high rates of coughing, wheezing, asthma, respiratory infection, bronchitis, small airway disease, emphysema and even lung cancer attributable to breathing the tan-colored shroud of haze over Kolkata that is said to be air. Doctors familiar with this situation in India are saying expect to live about three years less if you live your life in Kolkata. Let's not wait any longer for solar battery-powered rickshaws to be put in widespread use! Find a way to make it happen, that's our advice. Utilize compressed natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas. Get off the high-carbon fuels entirely. If there can be happy news in all this it's that the people of Kolkata are now beginning to take back their city, the air they breathe, the water they drink. Many polluters have been knocked off the streets by authorities and angry people who want oxygen not the other junk. A turning point may have been reached in 2010, finally its happening. It's darkest before the dawn in Kolkata and oxygen concentrations are now moving up, yes that's up in many congested areas of this ancient and still very vulnerable city. The jatropha shrub is now being seen in India as a hardy, reliable source for biodiesel to power trains, buses, trucks and more. So far, only about 8% of India's electricity is powered by clean, renewable energy sources, mostly from wind, biofuels and solid biomass. Apparently, among their aspirational goals is to increase this share to near 10% by end of 2010 and to 20% by 2020. Certainly, India has the potential to be huge in development and use of renewable sources of energy. Worldwide, India already is ranked fifth overall in wind-driven power generation capacity. Obviously, the sun is intense throughout most of India so solar power should be a go, too! And the first solar power facility has now started in India. Government mandates and tariff schemes are being put in place to help drive change and speed widespread use of solar energy. India hopes to have 20 gigawatts of solar power capacity available for use by early-on in the 2020's including solar thermal power facilities, standby solar power inverters, one million rooftops with solar panels installed and solar lights, lanterns or lamps for 20 million homes. Then there is a scale-up to perhaps 200 gigawatts of solar power by 2050. This solar energy plan sounds awesome to us and we truly hope it happens. Apparently, India is also starting down the path of a wholesale, 100-fold increase in their civilian nuclear power capability: They aim for approximately one-half a terawatt by 2050. | ||||||
|
China: Both China and India have
populations that will soon be in the 1.5 to two billion range, numbers that are
far beyond their ecological survivability of perhaps 500 million people
each.
It is an unwelcome empirical observation that, all else being equal, in any
country eco-risk increases commensurate
with rising population density. As such, mitigation of pollution going forward
is urgent and adaptation is an afterthought. Don't try and craft a phony
solution around the existing status quo like Canada and Australia have been
documented trying to do - that won't work anywhere. Change and advancement deep
into green and clean territory cannot be forestalled or the situation will just
get worse in future. Do the world a favor and cancel your loser oilsands
projects in Canada - that's our heartfelt advice to our dear friends in China. Black carbon "soot" in the upper atmosphere above these two countries is estimated to block almost 10% of sunlight that would otherwise reach the earth's surface in China and there is about a 7% dimming above India. China and India together account for somewhere in the range of one-quarter to one-third of the world's soot emissions, a form of black carbon. Much of this soot emanates from burning coal, diesel fuel, wood and dung. Both of these countries are already heavily hooked on coal yet are apparently gearing up for dramatic expansion of their coal extraction and coal-fired power industries. We hope they do not tempt doomsday scenarios by continuing to start yet another coal plant operating every few days. Coal or other carbon-intensive sources still provides most of the energy in China. Regrettably, in both China and India and probably in a few other countries too its pervasive, concentrated use is primarily responsible for the advent of "cancer villages". We also have had numerous metal poisoning incidents in China stemming from pollution associated with various heavy metal smelters. Over the generation to come, imagine the emissions that will arise from one-quarter the population of the country, 300 million people, moving to the city. That's an average rate implied of about one million additional people per month demanding civic infrastructure including transportation, communications, housing, workplaces and various institutional supports. Urbanization on a massive scale, loss of wetlands, draining of peat lands, increase in grazing and agricultural areas, industrial expansion and other degrading land use changes, not to mention frenzied chemical and materials manufacture and a multitude of construction projects. Everything associated with all that activity, including entrails manifesting itself as any of a wide range of pollutants, may not peak in China until about 2035. Reforestation and afforestation efforts are likely to offset only a portion of the emissions generated. Clearly, the magnitude of greenhouse gases emanating here from these causes generally will not be significantly diminished, offset or affected by mere improvements in the energy efficiency of industrial processes, power generation, transportation, home heating and so on. Reductions in energy intensity alone are not going to save the day because the gray expansion activities contemplated are far too vast. This situation very likely means greenhouse gas emissions in China will not peak until 2035 either. Worse yet, some consider their heat-trapping emissions peaking by 2035 to be their low carbon pathway of future development. We cannot help but notice the starkness of the contrast of this vision with that of mainstream scientists. According to the latter, to contain the spectre of runaway climate change and unequivocally-avoid various doomsday scenarios, heat-trapping emissions worldwide must peak very soon now then decrease sharply to near zero within about one generation of time not peak one generation from now then flatten off, then slowly decline. Perhaps more than 100 million additional vehicles will take to the streets in China in the decade ending in 2019. The distinct possibility there will ultimately be another one billion or so new vehicle drivers on planet Earth is a very unwelcome prospect only because of the added burden of pollution. Fuel subsidies facilitate an increased demand for transportation fuel. Again, there is no problem with driving more and more if emissions are near-zero. The advent of electric vehicles is a welcome development so long as the electric power grid feeding the recharging points for vehicles is clean energy sourced, not coal-fired generation. Ground-level ozone pollution is already so concentrated from burning of fossil fuels and other materials and substances that China has reduced crop yields in many areas as a consequence. Governments are starting to crack down in an attempt to roll back pollution especially from atrocious diesel vehicles but the hour is very late. Traffic jams involving mostly large, heavy coal-carrying trucks may idle in lines up to an astounding 50 kilometers in length. Unsurprisingly, vehicular and other emissions are expected to escalate, perhaps dramatically. Further, as greater and greater numbers of people desire and expect a connection to the power grid, one would anticipate a significant escalation in demand for electricity. In the so-called business-as-usual scenario ceteris paribus this implies even-greater plumes of planet-warming gases being released into the air. Many noxious-combustion large ships add significantly to the pollution burden in Indochina as does air traffic. We agree that, if say one-quarter of China's pollutants originate from producing goods for export from China, that half that amount, one-eighth of the total, are the responsibility of, and can therefore be attributed to, other countries. By extension, the same half-half split applies to imports into China, where China then assumes partial responsibility for those goods and services. Chinese officials have said about half the rise in greenhouse gases in their country is attributable to goods and services sold to other countries. It takes two trading nations to tango and the same concepts would seem to apply to every nation. If a border pollution or carbon tax adjustment scheme comes to be somewhere then half the levy should go to the importing country, half to the exporting country with zero rebate to the merchant who shipped the goods being sold. Pollution aerosols and smoke from China comprise an estimated 13% of overall emissions currently in the air in North America, arriving by way of the East Asian airstream. In China, there are now alarming levels of greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxides and particulates caused by rampant coal-fired electricity generation and hoards of dirty diesel fuel powered trucks. Acid rain afflicts one-third of China. Agricultural activities and land use changes contribute more emissions than that of any other country. The aerobic burning of various biomass is widespread. By some analysis, due to the prevalence of heat-trapping gases and black carbon in their atmosphere, the average temperature across China generally could rise by two degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial times before 2020. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is reporting for the year 2007 that about two-thirds of the increase in carbon dioxide gas emissions worldwide came from China as did almost one-quarter of the absolute amount of carbon dioxide generated globally. China is now the biggest producer and consumer of coal in the world, accounting for about one-quarter of worldwide coal use. Coal still powers about three-quarters of China's supply of electricity. Numerous coal fires burn uncontrolled underground. Much heat-trapping methane gas also escapes directly from coal beds and coal mines into the air without being combusted. By 2010, the previous decade is expected to have resulted in an addition of at least 600 million tonnes of carbon emissions. Even though China already accounts for nearly half of world coal production, they are still planning to expand coal output by some 30% over 2008 levels by 2015. Much coal is also imported to southern China. Coal investing has been rising at 50% or more annually for several years now in China. As much as 80 gigawatts of additional coal-fired power capacity is to be added during 2009. One terawatt of coal-driven capacity could be available in China before 2020. Production of methanol fuel blends derived from coal, viewed in China as being a "green" fuel alternative, are being ramped up aggressively. By 2030, the world's atmosphere could be in for releases of as much as four billion metric tonnes of pure carbon equivalent from China's fossil fuel consumption alone. That amount, should it occur, would be nearly half the amount of carbon released worldwide into the air during 2007. The external health and environmental costs associated with coal mining and use are not reflected in the way-too-low administered price set for coal. The real, all-in costs associated with its use keep mounting long after it is burned. Where does all that spent coal ash end up? Hopefully it does not seep into the water supply along with its chromium, selenium and mercury content. This industry clearly should be progressively and aggressively carbon-taxed into oblivion. Recently, China has begun moving to stop some of the dirtiest coal enterprises from operating. Also, energy-intensive, low technology, grimy businesses of various kinds are being deep-sixed by Chinese government authorities in an overt effort to better protect the environment. China is the leading manufacturer on Earth, seemingly the workshop to the world. It has utilized or exported prodigious amounts of basic materials and items including cement, steel, aluminum, ceramics, glass and solar photovoltaic panels and cells. Rapid urbanization, industrialization and numerous exhaust-gushing vehicles add to China's pollution woes. About one-half million new trucks started driving on China's roads in 2007. Added to that is widespread puffing on tobacco products and cooking, especially in rural areas, using dirty biomass like dung, crop residues, wood and coal. The incidence of fluorosis remains high as a consequence of people breathing-in fluorine present in the fumes of burning coal. In China's more urban areas, haze, smoke and second hand smoke often lingers and forms a shroud over civil structures of the cities like a draping veil. Many of the world's most polluted cities have been reported for years to be in China. Breathing the air in these cities most days is equivalent to smoking perhaps two packs of cigarettes. Taiyuan, Beijing, Yuncheng, Tangshan, Guangzhou, Foshan and Hong Kong have poor air most of the time including ghastly blankets of hazy photochemical smog and aerosol pollution. According to government sources in Hong Kong, air pollution near congested traffic areas there reached "life-threatening" levels during one of every eight days on average in 2009. Needless to say, we have an epidemic of lung cancer in China. Tianjin, one of China's largest cities and Linfen, a city in China's coal mining heartland, teeter with ecological disaster. Tianjin, Shanghai and many east and southern coast cities also suffer from ash haze and ground level ozone pollution not to mention vulnerability to typhoons, flooding, rise of sea level and heat waves. Far inland to the west, Urumqi's air quality is sometimes abysmal. There have been serious transgressions by polluters in Jinzhong, Shangluo, Shiyan, Jiyuan, Qingyuan City and other cities, too. The villages of Jiyuan are too far gone from metallic contamination and emergency lead poisoning cases so have been ordered evacuated by the Chinese government. The concentration of pollutants is off-the-charts in some areas. Recent examples include near Wugang and Tongdu where many children have become sick from lead poisoning that afflicted people who lived in the vicinity of lead-zinc mines, smelters and coal-fired power sources. Shaanxi Province is the major coal producing area of China. It also has significant metal and chemical industries. There have been many "cancer village" pollution-driven incidents in places including Changqing, Tianying, Shiniu, Guyun, Hou and Shangba. Iron tailings are wreaking havoc with people's health in Gaocun. Birth defects in Shaanxi have been running at a whopping 18% which is anomalously-high even for China. Across the country, approximately 6% of all births have defects that are at least partly-attributable to environmental degradation, in particular and especially, from the various consequences of coal use. This is about double the rate of birth defects caused naturally, in the normal course. Coarse, fine and ultrafine particulate matter, black carbon sooty gunk, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, sulfate aerosols, formaldehyde and ozone impinges and/or sticks to everything in China's cities including the tiny air sacs in people's lungs. For every mass-unit of coal produced in China, there are about 2.5 mass-units of wastewater generated in the process. There is further a hideous amount of coal solid waste being generated with, ecologically-speaking, no safe place to be put. The token amounts of coal combustion products captured are merely being redistributed for other industrial uses, not sequestered. Environmentally-induced illness is already widespread affecting nearly one million people a year including cancer, heart disease and metal or radiation poisoning. Many tens of millions of Chinese will become sick and succumb to lung or heart disease over the next generation from breathing the polluted air and/or inhaling smoke from burning tobacco products. China landfills some 85% of its garbage often by long-hauling it out of metropolises with a vast colony of smelly trucks. Ongoing urbanization and emerging consumerism has had as a consequence the offloading of some 250 million tons of refuse for landfills every 365 days. People in many places are becoming sick from breathing the fumes from piles of garbage burning nearby such as in Likeng. By contrast, poor rural folks claim they do not produce much net solid waste at all. China has poorly-controlled electronic waste centers in Guiyu, Taizhou and more. A combustible chemical soup mixture of toxic elements and compounds may include lead, iron, cadmium, mercury, chromium, cobalt, barium, beryllium, chlorofluorocarbons, poly-vinyl chloride residues, flame retardant chemicals and more which may show up in groundwater and other places. China habitually participates in the sorry process of incinerating sometimes-imported toxin-laced refuse and other contaminated waste in order to produce electric energy and waste heat from the "fuel". We are not in favor of pell-mell burning of noxious or other materials, the sorry results of which are then back circulating in the air, soil and water. However, for example, we do think production of biochar from wood waste and agricultural leftovers in an anaerobic combustion process has potential as long as agricultural workers and other people do not burn it openly (aerobically) instead of tilling or burying it. Often rural residents already have their own methane biogas facilities whereby organic ends and scrap material are processed into fuel for space heating or cooking. According to government sources, about 10% of arable land in China contains unacceptably-high concentrations of lead. The soil across Guangdong Province and the Pearl River Delta area generally contains very high levels of lead, cadmium, copper, manganese and mercury. Half the farmland in this area has too-high contamination from other toxic metals, too including nickel, zinc, indium and arsenic. The Pearl River Delta area is so polluted few people eat fish from there or drink the water even if its boiled first. Fish deformities and other abnormalities are common. Plus there exists problematic concentrations of persistent organic pollutants. However, during the spring of 2009 as required by the Stockholm Convention, China has banned pesticides that contain persistent organic pollutants. So the incidence of newly-arising birth defects from this source has been eliminated overnight which is the kind of dramatic, action-oriented good news we like. Widespread overuse of nitrogen fertilizers has led to accompanying evaporation of volatile compounds contained in the chemical fertilizer thereby increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Other consequences include acidification of soil, ground water and rainfall. Soil is being depleted, burnt, blown or washed away at a rate of 10 to 50 times faster than it is replenished. Sources estimate that nearly three-quarters of fertilizer and pesticides used in China end up in the water so it is little wonder we have algal blooms in some lakes. Organophosphate and organo-phosphorous pesticide residues still show up in the food supply even though use of those pesticides is illegal. Many, if not most, maritime ecosystems are considered to be all but unsalvageable. Two-thirds or more of all waterways, surface water and groundwater are polluted. Fecal matter abounds from the epidemic of open defecation that hundreds of millions of people are still faced with doing. Diarrheal disease is commonplace as a result of exposure to contaminated water. Some government insiders say tributaries of virtually every river are effectively, ecologically dead as are the vast majority of lakes. The Bohai Sea, a dump for prodigious amounts of untreated wastewater, chemicals and fertilizer is close to being devoid of all life forms. The Yellow Sea has been stricken by algae due to high levels of nitrogen from untreated sewage, chemicals, fertilizer and other agricultural runoff. Upwards of half a billion people depend on the Yellow River in some way yet it remains seriously polluted and water levels have already been in decline. Most water across China is not drinkable. Up to one-third of the water supply is too foul to be used even for agricultural or light industrial purposes. Lately however, aggressive measures were taken to ensure drinking water for about 100 million people was safe. It is now said by officials that 90% of county towns in China will have operating sewage and wastewater treatment facilities before 2011. If it happens, that would have to rate as an Olympian-effort fix of what were monstrous environmental problems. But that still leaves perhaps 200 million others drinking questionable water or water unfit for human consumption. Further, many millions of Chinese people encounter drinking water shortages every year, as do livestock. Northern rivers, the Haihe and Liaohe, were listed as being seriously contaminated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection. In northern China now there are said to be over 4.5 million people and nearly two million farm animals experiencing severe water-stress. The numbers are apt to swell as Himalayan glaciers continue to melt as a result of global warming thus, in the medium term, threatening water levels in great river basins such as the Yangtze and Yellow River watersheds. The Yangtze, Yellow and Pearl River Deltas are very vulnerable to the implications of global warming. Some authorities believe the time is not far removed, perhaps by 2025, when except during flood episodes not a single river in China will have enough hydraulic force to reach the ocean. Clearly, many parts of east coast China are vulnerable to devastation from sea level rise. According to the State Oceanic Administration, the rise in sea level affecting Hainan Province has been at a rate of approximately 10 meters per century for many years already. The prospect that this magnitude of rise will continue unabated for decades to come is all-too-real. Over the last generation, temperatures in the water and air along China's coastal areas have risen by about one degree Celsius already. Ditto for the air temperature across much of Tibet including Lhasa as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has already endured nearly a two degree Celsius rise over half a century. In less than a generation, it has lost more than 5% of the areal extent of its massive glaciers. Some informed sources are now saying two-thirds of China's glaciers, including from Qinghai-Tibet Plateau alpine areas, will be gone by mid-century. Many grassland areas have deteriorated and been parched to the point of desertification. Soil erosion affects almost half the land area in China. This is despite the fact that net forestation rates have actually been positive overall in China. However, despite heroic tree planting and other efforts, desert areas continue to expand and now comprise over 20% of the total land in China. In addition, in many regions including on the Tibetan Plateau, vast grasslands have deteriorated into semi-arid areas due to poor farming practices, overgrazing, increased dryness and the effect of sandstorm-driven erosion. Desertification has been on the march in northern China for a long time and it encompasses many areas not just ones peripheral to the Gobi Desert. The Badain Jaran and Tengger Deserts are expanding, too. Approximately 150 million people have been disrupted, having to relocate to escape advancing parched, scorched Earth conditions. Inner Mongolia has been stricken by the worst drought and parched soil conditions in a century or more. Drought has also been reaching into central China such as near Qiangongping. Especially in the northern regions of China, yellow dust storms are frequent due to rampant desertification. Seasonal weather systems bring air-borne polluted clouds of dust and other particles from Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Cities such as Lanzhou are regularly blanketed in dust and sand. The dust is carried far and wide in China and easily reaches Korea and Japan, too. Ozone from Asia, a lot likely originating in China, India and Vietnam, arrives in the troposphere of the west coast of North America after an apparent lag of about two to four weeks. China is an amazing country. But we remain very concerned that China with its very high population density and very fast, mostly-coal fired growth, are flirting with ecological catastrophe and any ensuing possibly-global chain-reaction of biophysical repercussions and social consequences. This ecological horror flick is still filming but we believe the Chinese government has been making many moves recently to seriously address environmental problems. We are quite hopeful that China will achieve their goal of becoming an "ecological civilization". People generally realize China is starting their clean, green development rush from a position quite far "up the track" but they have definitely "kicked in" to turn their troubling situation around. A variety of energy conservation, pollution abatement and ecosystem restoration initiatives have been undertaken lately. China is progressively increasing energy efficiency, albeit from modest levels, as outdated operators are shut down and the carbon intensity of other fuel-burning activity is gradually reduced. China may try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half per unit of output before 2020. They have imposed more stringent fuel economy standards on various vehicles. That seems to be doing a lot when there's lots to do. China aims to reduce major, noxious pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and various particulates by 10% below 2005 levels before 2011. The energy intensity of aggregate output is to be curtailed by 20% during the 2006 to 2010 time interval so energy use per unit of gross product is supposed to decrease by about 4% a year. Further reductions in this energy intensity measure are being targeted in the 2011 to 2020 time frame. Carbon dioxide per unit of national income is now slated to be reduced by 40% to 45% by 2020 versus the situation in 2005. This means they are already about half-ways to that particular goal. China targets 15% of total energy use to come from renewable sources by 2020 including about 8% from hydropower. It's exciting to hear they may be in a position to revise this objective to 20% from 15% thanks to booming progress on the ground which brings them past a 10% share of energy from renewables during 2010. In with the new and out with the old, we like that dynamic for every country about now. China is already the world's fourth biggest wind power in terms of installed capacity and, in the short term future, are likely to become the largest generator of wind energy. They are already the biggest builder of wind turbines. China could have a massive 100 gigawatts of wind power facilities installed by 2020 which could then provide about 8% of their total energy requirements. Inner Mongolia has huge wind energy potential. Jiuquan is the city in far northwestern China where people are already at-work constructing the first 10 gigawatt wind power station in China, scheduled for completion by 2016. New, very high voltage, direct current transmission lines are being constructed to help bring more electric power to where it's needed. China also already has one of the largest solar power industries anywhere. We encourage the acceleration of solar, geothermal and wind power developments. China's target is for renewable sources of energy to account for 40% of domestic energy use by 2050. Our advice: Don't think 2050 with a grand plan for renewable energy deployments and reducing absolute emissions, think 2019, 2029 or 2039. Happily, our information is they are now aiming far beyond their original short run goals for implementing wind and solar power projects which is promising news. To us, a trajectory where emissions increase by 40% or more a decade from now could bring us all to the brink of ecological disaster and runaway climate change. Given the obvious lack of eco-consciousness demonstrated by so many people and organizations in so many countries for so long, there is enough blame to cast far and wide on Earth such that no one can espouse an eye-for-an-eye mentality anymore. Or very-soon-now we will all be as blind as the proverbial lemmings going over a cliff seemingly are. China was one of the first to ban logging widely and begin massive afforestation and reforestation. Looking back half a generation, China has seen a net gain of some 40 million hectares of forest during that time frame and they aim to add another 40 million hectares of net forest lands by 2020. The Green Wall of China undertaking to try to thwart creeping desertification affecting the country is a Jim Dandy. The magnitude of efforts by the people of China to date to improve the ecological state of their homeland has to be well-appreciated. To us, trees are the ones holding key-life insurance for us all and we believe these arduous actions will pay off big environmentally, especially in the decades beyond 2019 and 2029. China was also among the first countries to recognize and pan cropland-based biofuels. However, now some food-based ethanol projects are proceeding apparently. So are ones involving jatropha shrubs and other sources of second generation cellulosic biofuels. China has also been processing wheat straw into pulp for paper production for over a century thus saving woodlands. China is a leader in waste cooking oil to biodiesel and biomass utilization including for application on agricultural lands as organic fertilizer. They do not want their soil to degrade or be contaminated any further with metallic and other toxic residues. They are focusing on increasing food quality and cropland productivity. This means the purity of water used in agriculture has to improve and available water be used more parsimoniously. China was also one of the first jurisdictions to recognize the potential value of implementing quantitative taxes, tariffs, fees, fines, levies, shifts, etc to penalize polluters directly to force them into compliance, to clean up their act and to pay the full environmental costs of their acts or face being shut down. Many polluters and inefficient operators were shut down. Electronic biking was promoted heavily and there is apparently some 100 million e-bikes on the streets already, albeit mostly ones with archaic lead acid batteries. A Chinese company has mass-produced and is marketing the first plug-in hybrid car, powered in part by lithium ion batteries that are chargeable from a wall outlet. Some 10% of residents in the country already have a solar-powered water heater of one kind or another. Futuristic light-emitting diode lights are produced abundantly in China now. Sizeable low-carbon cities such as Gongqing are slated for completion as early as 2013. China was also first at wide-scale population control, something this planet needs now in our view. That is a lot of important firsts for China. We think Beijing Olympics was a spectacular first, too. We think every country recognizes by now we are all in this pollution quandary together. The ecological survivability of life in every country is unlikely to improve in the aggregate unless and until reductions in absolute levels of various pollutants is achieved, the concentration of various pollutants decreases and concentration gradients turn negative. Merely aiming to overwhelm ecosystems at a slower rate in future is not the answer to improve the health of our biosphere. We need an extended, perhaps permanent, course of actions reversing out damage we have already done. The deleterious impacts cannot continue to accumulate from a myriad of sources of pollution. That's impossible for our physical, living Earth and its inhabitants. Rather, there has to be an unwinding of chaos from pollution, a cure for diseases inflicted or it's lights-out. When the cascade of pollution starts to unwind or the disease stops spreading, affecting more and more cells and tissue, only then over time can affected ecosystems and organisms have a chance to naturally resurrect, replenish, recuperate, rejuvenate and finally recover. Ecological survivability, health and well being is thereby enhanced. The five Olympic rings symbolize our interconnected continents. Just as we should also all hope and aspire to be part of, or at least bear witness to, uplifting global-in-scope celebrations together, too, like Beijing, the 29th Olympiad, we must also together face squarely possible doom and gloom situations. This means brainstorming, cooperating, organizing and helping one another with advice, knowledge, resources and technologies. We need to ensure that given the constraints our finite Earth imposes, with continuing human population growth and no other planet available currently where we can move to, we do not all end up in the toaster one day. When children first learn about the uniqueness of life on Earth, the delicate balance that exists to enable our existence and sustain us, in short, how lucky we are to be here, it moves them greatly. | ||||||
|
United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar: United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have
especially high externalities on a per capita basis for their societies to
contend with as a result of industrialization, cement, construction, urbanization and
use of more and more vehicles. These countries also face severe
water stressors such that expensive, inefficient, energy intensive desalination
plants may have to be constructed and relied upon more and more as time goes by.
There are high levels of noxious nitrogen oxides
in the air from dirty oil-fired power generation. Use of energy is excessive in everything from
big, gas-guzzling vehicles to various luxuries such as air-conditioned beach
sand and bus shelters. Plus there is the ever-present problem of where
do you dump garbage that is not reused or recycled? Reckless dumping of oil
sludge and releases of methane gas has added to their environmental woes. In
Ajman, there's a colossal dump-and-burn site for pretty well any kind of waste
you can imagine. Oil refineries near or in Um Al-Haiman have discharged
gargantuan quantities of carcinogens over the years. Due to the concentrations
of vile pollutants emanating from these industrial point sources, it has become clear that the associated air, water and soil
contamination is making people who live not-far-away very sick. Marine environments
nearby have been found to have way-too-high levels of bacteria and ammonia from
untold years of dumping sewage into the sea. The Kuwaiti Sea also has very high
levels of volatile organic compounds and heavy metals.
UAE has been losing its natural defences against rising sea level and sea-going pollution. Mangrove forest, littoral and near shore sea grass environments have been severely compromised by various industrial and real estate development. Unfortunately, while the coastal plain is home to some 90% of the people, dwellings, buildings and infrastructure, it is also an area of no more than a meter or two above sea level. Modern, gleaming cities such as Dubayy are something to behold and we do not want to see huge swathes of it obliterated by the forces of climate change now upon us. For the duration. That's a lot of rolls of the dice we have to win if global warming and climate change are really upon us forever-more. On the bright side, of course we are going to love Masdar City and UAE's emphasis on capturing solar energy. UAE aims to reach 7% of all electric power in the country being driven by renewable sources of energy by 2020. They are also investing in nuclear energy in a big way to diversify and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. Qatar has vast natural gas reserves, production and processing including liquefied natural gas for export. Qatar is a small but highly industrialized country that creates emissions at a rate about three times higher than United States on a per capita basis. In particular, carbon dioxide releases into the atmosphere on a per person basis are said to be the highest of any nation. So clearly, instead of allowing flaring of gas, Qatar should be dictating tying of it into production or re-injecting it back from whence it came. Some of their heavy industry has had lead, cadmium and mercury contamination issues. Qatar is a country characterized by low-elevation and being surrounded on three sides by saltwater. These days, a center such as Ras Laffan Industrial City is really not in a fun position geographically anymore. |
Conclusion
Global warming, pollution, spread of disease, incidence of extreme weather events, sea level rise, deforestation, degradation of ecosystems and loss of habitat, species and biodiversity can play out over the years ahead in two ways. Either we will succeed in slowing the increase in all these phenomena, reversing it and lowering same to obviously safe and wholesome levels...or we will fail to do it or fail to do it fast enough to prevent catastrophe.
These stark choices may be dramatized by invoking and adapting the following songs from the past (with copyrights © as indicated in the footnotes below):
It could be thus - entitled "It's Over", adapted from Roy Orbison: All the rainbows in the sky, start to leave and say goodbye. We won't be seeing rainbows anymore. Setting suns before they fall; its up to us, that's all, that's all. But we'll feel lonely sunsets after all. Its over, its over, its over...ITS OVER!
Or it could be thus - entitled "Dream a Little Dream of Me", adapted from Mamma Cass. Stars shining bright above us, Night breezes seem to whisper to lovers, Birds singing in the Sycamore trees, Dream a little dream of we. daw dum-dah dum-dah daw-daw, da-da-dah dum da-dah da da-da-da dah-da dah-da...(repeat, whistling instead)....
Here comes the Sun King, Here comes the Sun thing, Everybody's laughing, Everybody's happy, Here's real - ly some thing, adapted from Sun King, the Beatles, BMI, 1967.
Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, the Sun shine in. Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, the Sun shine in. Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, oh let it shine, the Sun shine in, come on...now everybody just sing along... Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, Open up your heart, the Sun shine in...and let it shine on in!....adapted from Fifth Dimension, BMI, 1969.
| PanGeoInvestment.com Fruit Patch©™ | ||
|---|---|---|
| # | Web Page Connection | Web Page Fruit Mist |
| 1 | Welcome | Honeydew |
| 2 | Order Advice | Coconut |
| 3 | Know Your Client | Grape |
| 4 | Investor Data Block | Blueberry |
| 5 | Performance | Orange |
| 6 | Also Eligible | Banana |
| 7 | Investigations | Watermelon |
| 8 | Investigations-1 | Cocoa |
| 9 | Investigations-2 | Guava |
| 10 | Investigations-3 | Blackberry |
Copyright © 1997- 2010 and Trademarks™: Portfolio Investor 2010, PI2, Pan Geo Investment, PanGeoInvestment.com, Fruit Patch, Weighty 80 Index, WE Index, Also Eligible 100, Pan Geo Global Capital Appreciation, Pan Geo Global Investor Data Block, Pan Geo 100% American Strength, Pan Geo 100% American Strength Growth, Pan Geo 100% American Investor Data Block, Pan Geo Investment Global Table and Pan Geo Investment Eco-Flags Table - Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries; Murky, Hazy Crimson Red Sunset Countries; Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries; Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries; Eco-Flags; Colored Lights of Hope, Green Earth Memoranda and Solution ("GEMS") and Yellow-Lit Mud Hut Fund are copyrights and trademarks of Pan Geo Investment Inc. and are intended for private, non-commercial use unless otherwise agreed to in writing from Pan Geo Investment Inc. Reproduction in whole or in part without the express written consent of Pan Geo Investment Inc. is strictly prohibited. All rights reserved.
Ad Serving and Search: Ad serving to PanGeoInvestment.com and search at PanGeoInvestment.com is provided by Google Inc., a third party vendor. Google uses cookies to serve ads to PanGeoInvestment.com. Google's use of certain cookies enables it to serve ads to PanGeoInvestment.com based on where our visitors surf on the Internet. Google may use information (not including names, addresses, email addresses or telephone numbers) about visits here and to other websites in order to provide advertisements of interest to our visitors. Anyone may opt out of participation with this latter capability by visiting the Google ad and content network privacy policy at (Google)
Trademarks™: Sylvester the Cat, Tweety Bird and Brutus are trademarks of Disney Corp. Uncle John's Bathroom Readers Institute is a trademark of Bathroom Readers Press.
Copyrights©: Court of the Crimson King by King Crimson, BMI, 1969. It's Over by Roy Orbison, Sony BMG Music Entertainment, 1973. Dream a Little Dream of Me, by the Mamas and Papas, ASCAP, 1968. Sun King, by the Beatles, BMI, 1967. Let the Sunshine In by Fifth Dimension, ASCAP, 1969.
Acknowledgements and Gratitude: We are grateful to and acknowledge the Government of United States of America as an important source for key input data utilized in production of Pan Geo Investment Eco Table©. The World Resources Institute report on the environment from 2005 was an important reference on cumulative, historic emissions for many countries. Nevertheless, any opinions expressed, interpretations or rendering of information presented on this web page are entirely that of Pan Geo Investment Inc. performing its role as an independent investment advisor and analyst. Accordingly, Pan Geo Investment Inc. is solely responsible for same.