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Our Pan Geo Global Capital Appreciation Portfolio unlevered total rate of return is 72.3% from inception on November 15, 2000 to August 30, 2010 (average annual rate of return is 5.7%). Over this time, it has outperformed its global hybrid benchmark by 79.1%.

Our Pan Geo 100% American Strength Growth Portfolio unlevered total rate of return is 101.9% from inception on July 15, 2002 to August 30, 2010 (average annual rate of return is 9.0%). Over this time, it has outperformed its hybrid benchmark by 61.0%.

      

Welcome to Investigations4 page. Please refer to Investigations1Investigations2 and Investigations3 pages for the first part of Pan Geo Investment Eco-Flags Table©. Go to Investigations and Investigations0 web pages for our summary of climate change, ecological survivability and risks and what to do about it.

If you seek investment advice or further information about Pan Geo Investment Inc. and its services, please click on the links below to view other pages of this website or click on Welcome to go to the beginning here or proceed to our OrderAdvice or InvestorDataBlock pages.

Check the marquee banners above and refer to the Performance Page for information about the success of our investment advisory services to date and to view the first part of our 183 country Pan Geo Investment Global Table©. This table also contains direct links to stock market exchanges of these countries, so web surfing investors and interested parties can easily visit them by clicking on the links provided. The 100 countries not currently in our Pan Geo Global Index are shown in the Table portion on our Also Eligible  Page.

Eco-Flag "head-lights" to the left reflect forecast ecological survivability in future years. Eco-Flag "tail-lights" are shown on the right-hand-side of our four Eco-Tables. Tail-lights include: "1900s" column lights that reflect the historical situation; "2010" column colored-boxes that reflect the current situation; and "2019" column values that depend on the nature of the binding laws that govern legal actions in a country to have an effect on ecological survivability in the 2019 timeframe including our judgment of progress towards attainment of the ambit of the relevant legal framework. Often, despite their importance to our very existence, environmental and energy laws are slow to be updated and once they are, the full force of the law may take years to have a significant impact on ecosystems. Therefore, as sad as it seems given the time pressures we all face on this, the "2019" year value here is effectively a tail-light in our system. Again, this spooks us but we think it's realistic so we would rather try to meet that challenge head-on. Similarly, as a first approximation, the existing ecological state of a country or countries may be assumed to have arisen due to historical laws, rules and regulations that prevailed there although this is not accurate in some jurisdictions.

There is a 24-color scheme in use in Tables at this website. The particular color reflects the relative health, harmony and sustainability of ecosystems. The range of colors includes in order: dark blue, blue, dark green, green, light green, green-gold, yellow, cream, peanut butter brown, tan, brown, ox-blood brown, light orange, red, flat red, light pink, pink, crimson, indigo purple, mauve, gray, charcoal gray, lead black and black. On a best efforts basis, the color of our status lights changes with time as we become aware of relevant events and information regarding a particular location.

OUR ECO-FLAG COLORED LIGHTS OF HOPE©
ECO-TABLE 111 222 333 444 555 666
Sky Blue, Forest Green Eco-Touring Countries            
Dusty, Sandy Brown Afflicted Countries            
Murky, Hazy Crimson Red Sunset Countries™            
Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries            

Our current expose of Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries is continued below on this webpage including explanations of ecological risks. This gray quadrant constitutes the lowest part of our Eco-Table those nations where ecological survivability to 2019 is most worrisome. We need modernization quickly. Outdated, inefficient, carbon-intensive enterprises and segments need to be squeezed-out from the marketplace. They ought to be replaced with cleaner, greener alternatives, not helped to continue as going concerns. In some instances, wholesale changes are underway for the better but it takes time for the impact to be realized in the natural world.   

 

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Toll Scroll™ form Green Earth Memoranda & Solution ("GEMS")

On this web page and on Investigations, Investigations0, Investigations1, Investigations2 and Investigations3 pages, Pan Geo Investment Inc. presents the latest iteration of our investigation and Eco Table with Eco Flags and Memoranda. It was first published December 9, 2007.

May 26, 2010 -  Pan Geo Investment Inc. is now offering our Green Earth Memoranda and Solution ("GEMS")™ in the format of a Toll Scroll™. This format of Memoranda covers what is presented in our essays and Eco-Tables on the six Investigations web pages of this website. You do not have to register to gain access. On an honour system, if you utilize this GEMS investigation service by scrolling further down the page beyond this Toll Scroll paragraph to utilize the content there in whole or in part (excluding any web page navigation aids, advertisements and footnotes to the web page which may be viewed without charge), the following schedule of fees applies: To read this current PanGeoInvestment.com ("our") Investigations page content beyond the introductory paragraphs above and this Toll Scroll paragraph, cost is US $9.94; to use our Investigations0 page content beyond the initial paragraphs (displayed with a larger font size), cost is US $9.95; to utilize our Investigations1 page content beyond the lead-in paragraphs (having a larger font size), cost is US $9.96; to read our Investigations2 page content beyond the beginning paragraphs (with a larger font size), cost is US $9.97; to use our Investigations3 page content beyond Toll Scroll paragraph, cost is US $9.98; to utilize the content on this page beyond this Toll Scroll section, cost is US $9.99. For GEMS on all six Investigations web pages, cost is US $49.94. Please remit payment using the PayPal™ Buy Now button below where credit cards may be used, or send payment directly to us at the following address: Pan Geo Investment Inc., 688, Unit 4 - 350 S.E. Marine Drive, Vancouver, B.C. V5X 2S5 Canada. We very much appreciate your business, thank you.

GEMS on our Investigations4.htm web page - US $9.99

GEMS on all six Investigations web pages - US $49.94

 

May 30, 2010 -  Pan Geo Investment Inc. is now offering our global Light Yellow Works™ facility. This is our viral marketing scheme for selling the current content on our six Investigations web pages. Here's how it works: third parties can act as sales agents for us to close a sale (selling particulars are described in our May 26, 2010 comments on Investigations3 page and on our other Investigations web pages). A global Light Yellow Worker sales agent causes a new, first-time buyer to visit this website and purchase from our Investigations page offerings. That new customer of ours pays us in the usual way. However, at the time of that sale or within three months thereafter, this buyer notifies us who their Light Yellow Worker sales agent was for that sale. We check our system to see what number of sale this was for that Light Yellow Worker. We rebate a payment of "R" back to this Light Yellow Worker. We will use a specific example to illustrate how the amount of R is determined. Suppose this new customer of ours purchased our Investigations3 page content beyond the Toll Scroll paragraph, so the cost was US $9.98. We charged this new customer C = US $9.98. This new customer identified a particular Light Yellow Worker as their selling party. We look up that person and see it was their 12th sale made for us. So N = 12 here. If it was their third sale N = 3, etc. We rebate to that person an amount R = (C - ( (C/2) + (C/N) ) ), or (9.98 - 4.99 - 0.83) which equals US $4.16. Had that been the third sale by the agent, the payment would have been (9.98 - 4.99 - 3.33), or US $1.66. So you can see that the Light Yellow Worker sales agent slice of our pie escalates rather quickly. In fact, unbelievable as it may seem, their gross revenue from a particular sale can conceivably exceed ours allowing for the fact that Pan Geo Investment Inc. sets aside US $1.00 of our revenue from each and every sale we ever make and put it into our in-house Yellow-Lit Mud Hut Fund™ as described near the bottom of Also Eligible web page. The only stipulations we have for this global Light Yellow Works™ employment is that it be legal for the Light Yellow Worker in the jurisdiction they are operating in and that selling activity is conducted in a professional manner. The Light Yellow Worker must also have been a customer of ours for the Investigations web pages they are selling to others as a Light Yellow Worker. We ask that our agents try to wear light yellow clothes when conducting Light Yellow Works if they can, and point out to the prospective customer that Light Yellow Workers around the world dress in light yellow when spreading the word about this Investigations web page offering. We of course need to know the identity of all our Light Yellow Workers, how they can be contacted and their address for us to send them their payments. In the end, we decide who our agents are and we are under no obligation to continue any existing agency relationship with a particular party. We hope and trust our global Light Yellow Works™ facility will help create employment opportunities around the world in many countries. Nothing would make us happier than knowing some poor family living near the Sahel belt somehow found a way to sell local officials on our Investigations web pages and is now receiving significant micropayments of powerful US dollars from us. This global Light Yellow Works™ facility also shows in another way how it is possible that someone simply gaining access to computers and the Internet may conceivably turn their life around and rise from being destitute. As Investment Advisor, not as a charity, not as a foundation, we humbly blaze a trail with our global Light Yellow Works™ facility. This is like the Kentucky Derby folks, and we again set the torrid pace that competitors of ours wilt from, they really have a hard time coping with us. More so now than ever before because "us" now also includes Pan Geo Investment Inc.'s global network of cool Light Yellow Workers.            

 

 

PAN GEO INVESTMENT ECO-FLAGS TABLE©   48 Smoky Gray Day, Carbon Black Night Countries™ (part 2) as of September 5, 2010 (93rd edition). First edition published December 9, 2007. All rights reserved.
2049 2039 2029 MEMORANDA 2019 2010 1900s
     Australia: Australia exports vast volumes of coal and lower-carbon fossil fuels to India, China, Japan, South Korea, United States and other countries, an outsize amount of carbon-intensive fossil fuels relative to the size of their population. Australia is now trying to set in motion the hawking of vast exports of horrendous brown coal to India. Some 80% of Australia's scourge of black coal is exported. Domestically, three-quarters of their electrical grid is still powered by old man coal. Australia is also heavily involved in mineral extraction and processing activities. The country is a significant producer of aluminum, an energy intensive undertaking.

Australia and Canada stand out again and again as being among, or are, the highest per capita emitters and polluters among major industrialized countries. Canada and Australia are relatively-sparsely populated but have sizeable resource-based economies that are generators of enormous quantities of pollutants. On a per capita basis, both rank among the world's worst offenders as emitters of greenhouse gases and as generators of waste generally. High levels of vehicular emissions and industrial pollutants are especially noticeable in larger, congested metropolitan areas. Rush hours stink! Their saving grace is having modest populations versus the vastness of the physical geography. This has meant that, so far at least, ecosystems in many areas of their country-sides have not been pressured by people beyond their natural ability to replenish or rejuvenate. Both countries have belatedly made somewhat significant moves into wind power. We sincerely hope much greater use of renewable energy takes place and that it happens in an abbreviated time frame.

Performance with respect to the Kyoto Protocol has been fairly disastrous: Canada's greenhouse gas emissions have gone up by more than one-quarter since 1990, Australia's by more than three-quarters since 1990. If these countries do not pay-up to cover their own shortfalls with respect to this agreement as Japan willingly did, there would seem to be a problem. They appear to believe commitments made regarding reducing their throw-off of heat-trapping gases is some kind of high-level game. For example, the same lagging bozos who are finally supposed to pay for polluting are then attempting to be eligible to get the doe right back again from the government as some kind of compensation. We don't think so. In this cartoon, they realize there is Sylvester™ the Cat and Tweety Bird™, but ostensibly they also believe there is no watchdog with teeth like Brutus™. Further, the general population are presumably thought to be naive, vacuous or oblivious to the shenanigans. So fossil fuel mandarins operating in these countries together with their investors, advisors and financiers easily influence politicians and regulators to find a way to still make it happen for them business-as-usual only with some public relations, political or marketing spin to smooth the way clear.

Many, if not most, Australians live near the ocean so are vulnerable to global sea level rise and storm surges. We assume they must be eco-conscious by this point in time. Given the scorching heat and vast outback, we may be forgiven for thinking they must have been going green with solar power years ago. The country also has vast wind and geothermal energy potential. Surprisingly, this is what it has not developed. What forms of energy has it developed? Australia singlehandedly supplies the world marketplace with an estimated one-quarter of the total demand for "black" coal. If greenhouse gas emissions from export industries are attributed 50% to the exporting country, which seems reasonable to us, then Australia's per capita emissions are now way too high, perhaps half-again higher than the situation would be without their coal exports.

Our view is that Australia's current environmental plan borders on the ludicrous: it facilitates continued unabated polluting in Australia, that is full-offsetting of emissions generated in Australia going forward by contributing funds to alleged reductions thereof in other countries. Moreover, they are set to dish out to Australian industry for free up to 90% of permits to do exactly this! Australia still relies heavily on coal for 83% of electricity generation and is showing few signs yet that it realizes what a sunset industry or segment is. Even though Australia still relies on coal for 80% of its power generation, the industry is to receive billions of dollars in payments from government in the next five years and be allowed to continue polluting virtually for free.

We support development of Gorgon gas fields. Cooling gas production to liquid form then shipping it abroad can only hasten the demise of coal in Australia. Moreover, it gives the world the chance to see if carbon dioxide sequestration on a massive scale will work. The plan is to jam unwanted, liquefied carbon dioxide into formations quite far below Barrow Island and monitor it to verify if its staying put where its intended to be and for how long. If it does leak out, Australian's collectively will be picking up the lion's share of the tab for the cost and consequences of possibly-gargantuan additional carbon pollution.

Prior to 2007, Australia was already the highest per capita emitter of carbon dioxide from agricultural activities. Greenhouse gas emissions in Australia have been ramping up not down. 2008 figures also show total greenhouse gas emissions up another 1.1%. If emissions from croplands and grasslands were included, the 2008 rise would be much greater due to drought. Increasing incidence of wildfires and net deforestation, not reforestation in the aggregate, makes the situation even worse. Add in the impact of all their sheep, goats, cows, camels, water buffalos, kangaroos and jackasses and the air is turning rotten egg mauve with gastrointestinal gas. Not what tourists have in mind when they come, to breathe that in. All-told, Australia may already be an astonishing 80% or more beyond their 1990 level of greenhouse gas emissions. Not 8% above, that's 80%! Unreal! In the absence of an aggressive transition to renewable energy, it is anticipated Australia's heat-trapping emissions will rise by another 20% before 2020.

As such, despite the environmental calamity which also includes five years of climate-induced drought resulting in 60% reduction in grain harvests, Australia plans to 2020 have it continuing to be one of the world's largest polluters per person. Metropolitan areas, in particular Newcastle, Perth and Adelaide, are already reading very high on most air pollution meters. Australia plans to have 20% of electricity sourced from wind, solar, geothermal, wave, tides and other forms of renewable energy by 2020. Another plan could be implemented for this time frame that would dramatically ratchet-up grid-power sourced from a wide range of solar thermal and wind turbine projects. The drama couldn't come a moment too soon.

Some lakes are so short of fresh water due mainly to extended drought, the lakebeds have become laden with various toxins and acids including hydrochloric and sulfuric acid. Most native river red gum trees, some that are 500 years old, are dying off or have capitulated already due mainly to reduced fresh water volume. On the coast, Sydney Harbor is said to have seaweed with the highest levels of lead and copper contamination ever measured. The gray waters of the Murray-Darling River system have reached perilous levels of pollution with acidity comparable in stretches to pure sulfuric acid. Rising salinity and acidity is affecting fish to the point where the lowly carp now constitutes about half the remaining biomass of fish that can survive there. High acid-sulfate content of soil near the Murray River is degrading vegetation and causing dead zones to form as it oxidizes into sulfuric acid, then runs off into the river. Aluminum, cadmium, nickel and iron have been found to be far beyond safe levels where the river runs into the ocean. Likely a ramification of nearby mining and smelter activity, we also have the sorry situation in the city of Mt Isa where lead-laden dust is affecting the health and welfare of many people. We have a heavy metal mine effluent ecological disaster affecting Dalpura Creek. We also now have Ipswich, a place near the gruesome setting near the Bremer River where there have been many independent sightings of two-headed snakes and rats. People familiar with the area claim this river has been a receptacle for various effluents over the years including chemicals and many toxic heavy metals. So they are not totally shocked by the descent of their life-space environs into the realm of eco-genetic mutation.

Australia has accounted for almost half the world's mammal extinctions over the past 200 years. Australia is now among the top five countries in total number of threatened species and biodiversity has dropped. Its apparent that many species cannot now cope with the effects of increases in global temperature, never mind 2020 or 2050. Endangered species range from certain frogs and possums to marine turtles to tree kangaroos to hare wallabies and koala bears. The current range area covered by kangaroos is predicted to be cut in half by about 2030 as their grazing areas become parched and more water holes dry out. Three-quarters of the number of shorebirds that existed a generation ago have disappeared. Furthermore, many seabirds that heretofore have depended on the vitality of the Great Barrier Reef are in big trouble. This is in part because their food sources such as fish and plankton are increasingly descending to deeper, cooler water as a consequence of global warming. The other part is the Great Barrier Reef itself is now steeped in ecological risks. This  reef among others are now listed on the morning line of many scientists as being "even-money favorites" to become before 2049 ghostly, pale-gray-colored limestone rock formations. And little else besides thanks to the devastating effects of coral bleaching brought on by warmer, more acidic and polluted ocean water. Reef ecosystem degradation has gotten to the point where visits there from divers, nature lovers and other tourists from far and wide have decidedly been on a downswing. Once marine life populations, ocean biochemistry, temperature and salinity start changing on a macro-scale, its going to take a long-term sustained and determined effort by virtually every country on Earth to get the oceans and coral reefs back to anything resembling "the way we were".

    
     Indonesia, Vietnam: Indonesia and Vietnam have very high incidences of environmentally-induced illnesses resulting in disease, poisoning and/or death. To illustrate the prevailing mentality, asbestos cement and construction products are still in widespread use ostensibly because asbestos is relatively "cheap" and assists their rapid race-to-the-top (or bottom) growth spiral. They are fast-growing, densely-populated countries that historically have been, and frequently still are, subject to over-logging, slash-and-burn agricultural land-clearing and sometimes-huge smoky peat land and forest fires. This breakneck repurposing of natural areas has reached the point where less than half the land area of Indonesia remains forested today. When impacts from land use changes are factored in to the overall tally for greenhouse gases, this likely makes Indonesia the third-biggest emitter worldwide. Some 80% of Indonesia's climate-warming emissions are a result of deforestation, loss of peat lands and land degradation including consequences from smoldering fires. Regionally, burning results in enormous hazy, smoky areas, poor air quality and reduced penetration of sunlight.

Indonesia has too-many threatened species. Deforestation and loss of habitat in tropical rainforests is an ongoing big concern not only because of endangered species but also due to the consequent reduced global capacity for uptake of carbon dioxide by plant life. Half of Sumatra's forests have been destroyed already often due to further plantation and forest industry activity. In Kalimantan and Sumatra, deforestation for agricultural and industrial development has led to countless majestic animals such as elephants, tigers and orangutans either disappearing, being on the run or some kind of rampage or holed-up in orphanages. The survivability of four of every five primates is threatened. Half or Borneo's rainforests are gone and every year some 10% of Borneo orangutans disappear, that's forever. But now we have good news and perhaps the beginning of a turnaround for Indonesia: the apparent recent agreement by all Sumatra governors to ensure preservation of rainforest and peat lands in Sumatra. The recent waste management law passed in Indonesia aims to condemn violators, fine them and perhaps also land them in jail for up to 10 years. The Indonesian government says there will be no more land use conversion to plantations, in particular, for production of palm oil, of peat lands, carbon-rich forests or other prime forest areas needed to preserve biodiversity.

In Indonesia, rampant deforestation that, for example, pretty-well wiped out the entirety of Kalimantan's rainforests, has also now encroached into critical carbonaceous peat land areas. Forest fires, other deforestation and decaying organic matter in peat lands all result in huge releases of greenhouse gases. Thus peat swamp forests constitute another of our "wild cards" because peat lands, despite their rather limited geographic extent, hold about one-quarter of the Earth's soil and vegetation stores of carbon. Therefore, they should be left as unaltered ecosystems not drained or otherwise developed by economic actors. This is truly another hot potato issue.

Moreover, the emissions story is still incomplete here because Indonesia, the country with the world's largest extent of coal-bearing material, is already one-third dependent on dirty coal for electric power generation. Worse, it appears to be hell-bent on adding capacity of tens of thousands of megawatts more of smoky coal-fired plants over the next several years such that coal burning will about double by 2011 and quadruple by 2017. This will boost their overall pollution totals much higher. Indonesia continues to subsidize production of coal-driven electricity. Is it any wonder they have a serious air pollution problem including acid rain? Chlorine, nitrates, sulfates, mercury and other airborne metal particles, soot, ozone and hydrochloric and sulphuric acid mist are not anyone's idea of a tropical paradise getaway. Time to get with it and shape up.

Deforestation and land use changes affecting forested areas and peat lands still cause most emissions. Indonesia's questionable status quo plan is for emissions to rise by 20% from 2005 levels by 2020 then before 2030 to ratchet up another 30% versus 2020 levels. Change is clearly needed here. Its also true more land use change-related emissions should be expected here compared to many other countries that undertook considerable land development activity in the past.

Happily, change may come. Indonesia's new goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 26% by 2020 versus the status quo or business-as-usual which would then be an improvement but only relative to the grim prior numbers cited above. Their new objective includes reducing the rate of deforestation by 85% or so by 2020 but apparently does not specify targets for afforestation or reforestation which is necessary to restore their ecological balance. Before 2030, Indonesia's forests are supposed to no longer be a net emitter, rather will become a carbon sink again. Furthermore, Indonesia now has much-toughened environmental rules, regulations and laws: If someone intentionally conducts activities that causes pollution to exceed tolerable levels of water, air and environmental quality, they will face a mandatory minimum three year jail sentence plus a fine of 3 billion rupiah and up.

Indonesia has also been a problematic user of mercury to extract gold cheaply and easily. As a consequence of mostly small-scale artisanal gold mining, Kalimantan has many waterways with high concentrations of mercury. Furthermore, according to Indonesian sources, one-third of consumer waste is burned and one-sixth is thrown into rivers or deposited on public lands. Four of every five rivers in Indonesia are said to be in the government's highest category, meaning 80% of rivers are currently listed as being severely polluted with human, agricultural and industrial waste. Needless to say, do not drink the water. Nearly half of Indonesians still make-do without toilets and, unsurprisingly, most excrement and other raw sewage ends up in bodies of water. Fish and shellfish are often killed directly by the high concentration of effluents, garbage and raw sewage present.

Air quality in Indonesia's cities is generally abysmal. As an example, residents of Jakarta are said to be many times more likely to breathe unhealthy air than air you can survive on over the long term. The sky is usually gray and hazy from soot, hydrocarbon particles and fumes, fine particulates, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide and smog. We also have the Surabaya's, Tangerang's and Medan's of our world where human waste streams and industrial pollution accumulate in a dirty mix. Noxious smoky, pollution-gushing pedicabs ply the streets despite attempts by authorities to have operators upgrade to compressed natural gas or junk it in favor of an ordinary bicycle. If Indonesians survive man-made disaster scenes they still have the ever-present possibility of earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, mass wasting flows and other natural catastrophes to contend with as a consequence of living in close proximity to the Pacific Rim of Fire. Jakarta is subsiding, in fact, more than two meters in a generation (gulp!).

Indonesia has been slowly developing some of their vast, untapped geothermal potential. The government is now targeting 5% of their overall energy requirements to come from geothermal projects by 2025. Also, by 2015, they are having a great many small, off-grid solar power point-facilities built in rural settings that are deemed to be locations too expensive to tie into an electric grid.

Increased urbanization and auto-mobility coupled with low income per capita and tendency of people to smoke are also big negatives for Indonesia and Vietnam. Cigarettes here are among the cheapest in the world and hordes of people gasp on them at regular intervals as if there was no tomorrow. Both those countries export large volumes of coal, in particular, to China and India. This may not be such a hot idea as we are all interconnected by the entrails of waste-streams.

Apparently undaunted by the maelstrom of pollution to date, Vietnam has been planning on quadrupling its electric generating capacity before 2020 relying mostly on coal to support that growth. We highly recommend ditching coal. Both wind and solar power have tremendous natural potential in Vietnam. Possible cellulosic bio-fuel sources like rice husks, hyacinth weeds and others need to be pursued aggressively because then same tend to come out of waterways instead of being dumped in waterways that still flow forward. There is also hope that their natural gas reserves can be utilized more widely, displacing dirtier diesel and petrol. However, conversion to, or use of, compressed methane is currently beyond the reach of the vast majority of individual vehicle owners in Vietnam. Unfortunately, demand for energy especially from industry is an order of magnitude, that's ten times, greater than the expected growth of renewable, clean energy sources of energy up to 2025.

Industrial coal-burning activities and countless grungy, inefficient vehicles including huge numbers of old soot and dust spewing motorbikes are significant contributors to air pollution in Vietnam. Major cities currently have an atmospheric backdrop of dust, grime and various combustion products. Vehicles cause almost three-quarters of the air pollution in urban areas according to environmental officials in Vietnam. Unfortunately, mass transit is limited presently. Air quality in Hanoi is appalling.

A hopeful sign of better things to come is that solar-powered cookers, hot plates, water heaters and battery chargers are beginning to take hold especially in the countryside and villages. This transition cannot happen a moment too soon as even in some villages in rural areas the air is heavily polluted with toxic gases, tiny metal oxide flakes, rubber particulates, benzopyrene, you name it. Dreadful coal-fired brick-making kilns abound in Vietnam. Even old tires are burned in, or shipped via the country. Some localities still have bad soil contamination from the highly-toxic defoliant dioxin that has not yet been cleaned up, for example, in Lake Bien Hung or surrounding soil. Also, Da Nang and Phu Cat are still herbicide hotspots. Bronchial asthma, diarrhea, petechial fever, poisoning, fetus malformation and infectious and neurological diseases generally have all been increasing and a government report blames environmental pollution.

Vietnam has also been smarting due to a decade-long drought in the north. Hopefully, the drought is not caused by global warming which would heighten the likelihood of a persistent, or at least recurring, problem. Authorities estimate that global warming of two degrees Celsius will be sufficient to cause submergence of nearly half the Mekong Delta area, an event that would be a calamity of monumental proportions. A one meter rise of water level would be enough to swamp one-third of the delta. Tens of millions of Vietnamese live here and it is Vietnam's agricultural heartland. Unfortunately, we already have serious saltwater incursion up the Mekong River delta area. People are pointing the finger at global warming as the cause of excessive melting of Himalayan glaciers, increased storm intensity including torrential rainfall, and rising sea levels. But also there is condemnation of the tremendous amount of damming involving several countries along the length of the Mekong River progressively reducing downstream velocity and sediment-carrying capacity of the river. Damming is in-place for irrigation purposes, flood control and hydroelectricity generation, too. This generally means that near the terminus of the Mekong Delta, there is considerably-less water outflow pressure remaining in the river to counteract influx of ocean saltwater. Sounds to us like more salt  will end up mixing with  the natural fresh water supply. Plus there now exists a greater risk of flooding of low-lying areas in the region which could affect millions of people and huge slices of land.

Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho are likely in big trouble as the specter of global warming sets in. One estimate projected that a one meter rise in sea level near Vietnam could impact 10% of the population, principally those who live or work in the extensive low-lying coastal and deltaic areas of the country. Half the area of Ho Chi Minh City is less than one meter above today's mean sea level in this region. Alarmingly, average temperatures in many localities have been rising at a pace of one degree Celsius per generation for two generations. The ocean impinging on Vietnam's coastline has been rising at a rate of two meters per century for more than a decade. A four to five degree Celsius temperature rise would very likely bypass some serious Earthly tipping points unleashing relatively-abrupt rises in global sea levels of several meters. Such a prospect would be so calamitous in its implications we do not want to dwell on it. Rather, we want to focus effort on stopping further global temperature increases from happening, to lower risk that various catastrophes become inevitable.

Vietnam has seen a net gain in trees lately due to monolithic plantation-style reforestation projects but restoring biodiversity may be a long and arduous process. Acid rain originating beyond Vietnam's borders is said to account for about one-third their rainfall. The Mekong, Sai Gon, Ngu Huyen Khe, Can Tho, Thi Doi, Dung, Bo Ot, Ngang and several other rivers in Vietnam are in places severely polluted mostly as a result of steel-making and other industrial and agricultural sources. A 70 kilometer length of the Day River cannot support any life. Furthermore, large die-offs of aquatic life have occurred along the Nhue River. The To Lich River is also a very polluted waterway. Fish have also been succumbing en masse to pollution in many lakes in Vietnam. Only about 10% of Mekong Delta factories treat waste water before discharging it into the Mekong River. Use of toxic, illegal pesticides abounds. The Mekong River has been found to have very high levels of PCB's, DDT and mercury. Unsurprisingly, the Mekong dolphin is on the brink of extinction. The Thi Vai River has been declared devoid of life over a length of at least 10 kilometers. Industrial zones may not have water treatment plants and so may be a significant source of pollutants. The Sai Gon River, whose main tributary is the Dong Nai, also has acute water pollution from microbes, manganese, oil, ammonia, iron, lead, nitrogen, phosphorus, etc. that go far beyond any semblance of a safety standard. One of the Dong Nai's streams is ecologically dead in sections up to many kilometers long. Canals that feed into these polluted rivers are often ecologically dead or have borderline levels of dissolved oxygen left. Some say most of the entire Sai Gon River system could be virtually null and void of life by 2019. Hundreds of waterways in and around Can Tho City, Bien Hoa City and Ho Chi Minh City are used as dumping areas for industrial effluents, medical waste and residential garbage. Many medical facilities have no capacity to treat waste and merely discharge it into a river. Some canals such as the Ba Bo are ecological disaster scenes, are pitch black in color and rank in smell. The air in Ho Chi Minh City contains ominous amounts of horrible stuff ranging from carcinogenic petrochemicals like benzene to toxic heavy metals like lead to noxious gases like carbon monoxide to suffocating quantities of dust from cement, construction and transportation activities. Hanoi's water and air quality are horrible, both being laced with a variety of toxic substances. Maybe only one-third of industrial zones have even the most basic wastewater treatment facilities. Many rivers in and around Hanoi are contaminated with heavy metals, other suspended solids and coliform bacteria. The oxygen being consumed in waterways is far beyond what's possible in order to still support most aquatic life.

In sum, chemical oxygen demand is so intense, ammonia nitrogen content so high and water quality so poor in parts of Vietnam that agricultural productivity has declined significantly. Perhaps one-quarter of water wells contain arsenic-laced water unfit for use as gray water let alone drinking or cooking. The government is funding a plan to try to clean up rivers in Vietnam. As well, Vietnam now has environmental police so we hope various improvements are in the offing. Widespread deployment of newfangled automatic water quality testing stations along rivers might mean automatic nabbing of many more water pollution culprits. Authorities are determined to boost Vietnam's sorry record on the reduce, recycle and reuse mantra to far beyond the 10% level of all garbage that it was at not long ago.

Lastly, implementation of an environmental tax nation-wide beginning in 2012 could lead to a turning point in their ecological survivability. Such a tax would promote more environmentally-friendly decision-making, behavior and allocation of resources. It should also provide part of the foundation for a legal and regulatory framework that leads one day to the onset of a natural roll-back of now-pervasive pollution that has resulted in widespread environmentally-induced ailments and sickness.

    
     India: Both India and China have populations that will soon be in the 1.5 to two billion range, numbers that are far beyond their ecological survivability that can cope with perhaps 500 million people in each country. It is an unwelcome empirical observation that, all else being equal, in any country eco-risk increases commensurate with rising population density. The physical reality of our Earth and the health and wellness of life as we know it is quite oblivious to the sheer number of people living in any particular region or country. Ecological survivability in an area is threatened by the continuing escalation of pollutants that affects it. That is the basis for our questioning why authorities in India are contemplating perhaps a doubling of heat-trapping emissions in India by 2020 and a possible tripling by 2030 relative to their current levels. Various pollutant levels in India are already unsustainably large in magnitude meaning environmental degradation is ongoing. In the aggregate in India, ecological survivability is lessening not being enhanced. At this juncture, there is no escaping this finding. Adaptation is not going to save us given the specter of deteriorating environmental conditions that prevail. India is under ecological pressure, up-against the natural bounds of their country that exists due to the paradigms of physics, chemistry and biology. It's not some nefarious bogeyman out there holding sway or over them or causing havoc for them.

Brown or black carbon "soot" in the upper atmosphere above these two countries is estimated to block almost 10% of sunlight that would otherwise reach the earth's surface in China and there is about a 7% dimming above India. China and India together account for somewhere in the range of one-quarter to one-third of the world's soot emissions, a form of brown or black carbon. Much of this soot emanates from burning coal, diesel fuel, wood and dung. Both of these countries are already heavily hooked on coal yet are apparently gearing up for dramatic expansion of their coal extraction and coal-fired power industries. We hope they do not tempt doomsday scenarios by continuing to start yet another coal plant operating every few days. Or by importing more coal or heavy crude. Coal or other carbon-intensive sources still provide at least half of all energy in India. Coal still drives about two-thirds of their electric power grid. Its deployment as a fuel must be ratcheted back from these levels and soon. Widespread fly ash and coal dust coats everything in its path. Very sadly as it often affects children the most, in India, China and likely other coal-dependent countries, too, widespread, concentrated use and misuse of coal is primarily responsible for the medical phenomena of cancer, metal and radiation poisoning arising from radionuclides and metal particles such as lead and mercury contained in coal combustion and fly ash deposit related air, water and soil pollution. We further have widespread asbestos tile, construction material and insulation-related maladies and sickness stemming from asbestos production, handling and use.

Noxious-combustion ships and boats add significantly to the pollution burden in India as does air traffic. An uncountable number of smaller, cheaper vehicles with internal combustion engines are being pumped-out to try to capture more of the lion's share of the personal income curve. What can the outlook be given that India is rapidly developing an automobile culture and affordability is ramping up for huge swathes of their populations? The distinct possibility that there will be another half a billion vehicle drivers on planet Earth is a very unwelcome prospect unless new vehicle emissions are near-zero. Fuel subsidies encourage more driving not less driving. Thick layers of brownish-gray clouds, fog and smog hang over parts of the country including many congested metropolitan areas and industrial zones. Ground-level ozone pollution is already so concentrated from burning of fossil fuels and other materials and substances that India has reduced crop yields in many areas as a consequence. Governments are starting to crack down in an attempt to scale-back pollution especially from atrocious petroleum-based diesel vehicles but the hour is very late. As of now, vehicular and other emissions are expected to escalate, perhaps dramatically. Strict fuel efficiency standards across the entire transportation sector will be necessary soon merely to maintain a lingering hope of containing air pollution. Further, as greater and greater numbers of people desire and expect a connection to the power grid, one would anticipate a significant escalation in demand for electricity. In the so-called business-as-usual scenario ceteris paribus this implies even-greater plumes of planet-warming gases being released into the air.

For more than a decade now, India's greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing at a 3% per year rate when worldwide we all are faced with the ecological and existential imperative to decrease those emissions by about 3% annually. According to projections, India will soon become the third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Half their energy has been derived from murky, carbon-intensive fuels like coal and oil. Coal use over the decade to 2019 is slated to about-double to some one billion tonnes a year. They have a very weak official goal of reducing carbon intensity by 20% to 25% by 2020 relative to 2005 levels. India is apparently imposing a carbon tax on coal which may be seen as an initial impetus to engineer the fast and massive transition to clean energy that is required for India to stave off ecological disaster scenes. This tax is a really good idea because coal is the dragon responsible for releasing about one-third of India's heat-trapping emissions.

There is serious deforestation, biomass burning, soil erosion, overgrazing and other maladies associated with huge numbers of people trying to eek out a living or subsistence from working the land. Two-thirds of India's land area is degraded, arid or semi-arid. Here, soil has become parched, depleted, alkaline or too salty. Or its been eroded away by wind, heavy rain or flash floods. Agricultural practices are often not environmentally friendly. For example, rice paddies could be drained of water at mid-season to reduce release of methane gas into the atmosphere. Put ducks on the rice paddies to eat weeds and pests instead of so much insecticide and fertilizer. There are nearly half a billion cows, sheep and goats. Livestock are said to release more greenhouse gases collectively than vehicles. All those lovely cows, sheep and goats whose meat and dairy products are coveted for local use and export, they do have rotten table manners. Its called methanogenesis. Moreover, the agriculture-driven economy has major issues due to raw sewage, pesticides, insecticides, fertilizers including nitrates, phosphorous and other chemicals percolating or being flushed directly into bodies of water or as leachate. Ammonia nitrogen content is high and chemical oxygen demand pervasive, signaling the deteriorated state of water bodies. Synthetic pesticides and insecticides banned in many other countries such as DDT are frequently still used in India.

Arsenic-induced illnesses and ailments are widespread. We have radiation-poisoned, cancer-stricken areas such as Muktsar and Bathinda where concentrations of uranium, radium, radon and thorium contaminate the air and water. Smoke and fly-ash residue from thermal coal-fired power plants are implicated in the blame-flame. We also have the coal smoke and dust centers of Korba and Singrauli. Unfortunately, there are many others like it in India and other countries, too. Furthermore, we have mining calamity outbacks such as Sukinda and Vapi where toxic waste sites abound. There are chemical, textile, leather and tannery towns like Ranipet and Ambur. In Kanpur, innumerable tanneries unabashedly dump untreated effluent into waterways. There is also chemical pollution from textile and garment manufacturing in more urban areas such as the city of Bhiwani. There exists many other chemical and greenhouse gas pollution-stressed industrial areas, too including Ankleshwar, Chanda, Angul-Talcher, Mahul, Kali and Vellore. Very high levels of nitrogen dioxide exists in the air of the coal and other old industry centers of Asansol and Durgapur. So the potential for otherworldly ozone formation is all-too real for the people that are stuck in the world of these cities. Durgapur is known as a heartland for steel fabrication and a prime area for coal processing and transshipment. We also have wide-scale grimy machinery, brick and tire manufacturing taking place there. Is it any wonder the air people breathe is rather, shall we say, hazardous?

Overall, the government recognizes that nearly half of India's land and soil has been degraded and eroded significantly. The soil has been depleted and is too alkaline, often having a high content of salt, sodium and potassium hydroxides and ammonium. Hence, many waterways also become unnaturally alkaline. Too many years have gone by where the land was pounded relentlessly with various chemical fertilizers, pesticides, saltwater, polluted water and air-borne pollutants. Further, barely one-eighth their land area has healthy, dense forest cover. Happily, billions of dollars are to be allocated over many years to reforestation projects in India in a tremendous effort to restore forest lands to their full potential. By the end of 2019, forested areas across India could be twice that which existed towards the end of 2009. Trees are sentries of water so are important generally but vitally important in water scarce regions.

We sense an ecological turnaround in the making. Environmental protection regulation, court and tribunal systems are being enhanced considerably. There is firm acknowledgement that the state of India's air, water and ecosystems constitutes essential, life-sustaining natural capital that cannot be spent. If it is spent in any country, then we would expect the quality of life there to deteriorate rather than improve steadily as it could with a measured, eco-conscious approach to promote sustainable economic growth. Also, only perhaps half the population have access to sanitation facilities including toilets.

The Indus, Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers all depend on Himalayan glaciers to replenish fresh water. If that does not happen, food shortages may eventually result from reduced crop yields. Flow in the Ganges is already reduced due to damming and an abundance of irrigation canals. In Allahabad and climaxing further downriver near Varanasi, the volume of water is lessening whilst the amount of pollutants ending up in the flow is increasing, not a good combination. Water table levels in many parts of India have been dropping due to the population's overuse relative to the diminishing volume of Himalayan glaciers and snowpack and sometimes also due to less rainfall that is able to percolate undergound. Over a period covering more than a decade, NASA satellite data to 2007 sensed a drop in groundwater levels in northern India at an average rate of about one meter every thousand days. Our view is climate change phenomenon is increasingly affecting the natural cycle that historically had faithfully replenished both the amount of glaciers and fresh water supply. Demand for water simply outstrips the reduced replenishment and supply so ground water table levels exhibit a downward trend. Fossil water, water that has accumulated in the subsurface over great lengths of time geologically, cannot be counted on to make up the shortfall.

If too much glacial melting occurs or global sea level rises more than about two meters, people living in low-lying coastal areas like Goa or cities, for example, Mumbai and Kolkata are in big trouble from the attendant flood risk. Erosion has already affected one-quarter of India's coastline as the ocean transgresses existing shorelines. Sea level is rising faster along the east India coastline than the global average rate. Consequently, saltwater incursion from the ocean up rivers already occurs on a regular basis. The salt of the Earth and influx of marine water affects an estimated one-third of groundwater already. Further, numerous aquifers throughout India are contaminated with unhealthy levels of toxic substances often including arsenic, iron, other metallic particles and/or fluoride. The situation in West Bengal is very unpleasant in this regard. Perhaps the majority of people in Kolkata already drink contaminated, salty water. Some of it contains unsafe concentrations of metals such as copper, lead, iron, arsenic and chromium. Clearly, this means Kolkata is very vulnerable to rise in sea level because the consequences from same are already evident even to children.

Many locations near the Ganges River have high concentrations of arsenic in the groundwater which ultimately manifests itself in residents as any of various cancers or cardiovascular disease. Ganges and Yamuna Rivers are further polluted from discharge of untreated sewage, garbage, fertilizer, herbicides, pesticides, fungicides, rodenticides, corpses and industrial effluent directly into the rivers. That's right - fish don't swim in these rivers nor do birds land on them. Oftentimes, what we are left with is water suitable only for industrial applications. Moreover, under force of gravity, polluted river water always has a tendency to percolate down. In the process, it contaminates groundwater aquifers, sediment, pore spaces in rocks and water-well boreholes.

Water is generally not potable directly in India. Chemicals and various bacteria, in particular, fecal coliform proliferate in surface and groundwater. In Jaipur for example, the incidence of water contamination is nearly-wholesale which cannot come as a big surprise if only 10% of sewage is treated. Don't come too close to the rivers or you may come down with typhoid, jaundice, polio, dysentery or what-have-you from contact with the spray alone. The Ganges River is in parts more like a viscoelastic fluid that oozes rather than a waterway that flows. Near and through Delhi, the Yamuna River is deathly dark and rank in smell but at least now we hear a clean-up is happening. In various localities there are alarming levels of fecal coliforms from organic waste in waterways such that people should not be going in the water or be in contact with its spray. The Damanganga River in places contains alarming levels of heavy metals, in particular, deadly mercury. Many more river segments and arms have next to nil dissolved oxygen meaning life as we knew it in those waters is virtually absent nowadays.

According to a 2009 report prepared for the Indian government, 85% of industrial zones in India are "severely polluted" thanks significantly to a whole spectrum of gritty manufacturers such as chemical, steel, textile and food processing plants. India is a powerhouse producer of pharmaceuticals and chemicals. However, there have been reports of astronomical concentrations of biochemical and drug residues found in the water in some localities such as near Hyderabad. India also has a problem with electronic waste piling up in certain areas of New Delhi, Hyderabad, Bangalore and other places. Combustible chemical soup mixtures of toxic elements and compounds included lead, iron, cadmium, mercury, chromium, barium, beryllium, nickel, arsenic, cobalt, copper, chlorofluorocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls including poly-vinyl chloride residues, brominated flame retardant chemicals and various inks and toners. Some time later these contaminants have a tendency to show up in groundwater, surface waterways, soil and other places. India also participated in the sorry process of incinerating sometimes-imported toxin-laced refuse and other contaminated waste in order to produce electric energy and waste heat from the "fuel". We are not in favor of pell-mell burning of noxious or other materials, the sorry results of which are then back circulating in the air and water. However, for example, we do think production of biochar from wood waste and agricultural leftovers in an anaerobic combustion process has potential as long as agricultural workers and other people do not burn it openly (aerobicly) instead of tilling or burying it. This segment has a happy ending because India has recently introduced some of the strictest requirements anywhere for manufacturers of various electronic paraphernalia to take personal responsibility for the life-cycle management of products they sell. This includes ensuring its safe salvage, refurbishment, return, recycle, retooling, reuse, whatever. No further importation of used electronic equipment is allowed other than for the expressed purposes of repair and refurbishment.

India does stipulate that biofuels make-up one-fifth of petrol and diesel by 2017. Nevertheless, ghastly pollution problems persist in many regions. Mumbai is said to be the second most polluted metropolitan area in India after Kolkata. New Delhi is also a grim bastion for pollution. New Delhi has horrid air quality arising from industry and vehicles. Further, there are startling instances of additional indoor toxicity, for example, from breathing the dust emanating off lead-based paint used. Cities such as New Delhi still have less than 3% of vehicles running on cleaner-burning natural gas. Kolkata also has dreadful air quality with many old buses and commercial trucks continually plying the streets. Places like Kolkata, Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Ranchi, Lucknow, Ludhiana, Raipur, Patna, Jamshedpur, Ahmedabad, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad, Bhiwadi, Visakhapatnam, Guwahati, Ankleshwar, Chandrapur, Vadodara, Varanasi and Nagpur are also beset with various problems involving high concentrations of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide, benzene, benzopyrene, other polyaromatic hydrocarbons, brown carbon, black carbon, metals and/or other suspended particulate pollution including coal, cement, silica and lime dust. There exists an escalating, if not alarming, rise in the number of vehicles negotiating the roads. Innumerable small-time rickshaw drivers burn junky blended fuels including kerosene and naptha. Subsidizing kerosene, diesel and other carbon-rich fuels is a very bad idea. The adulteration of fuels sources, for example, kerosene mixed with widely-available petroleum-based diesel is known to be a particularly-deadly combination for those parties left gasping in the wake of its combustion. Not a pretty story but one that should be told.

What chance do children have in life if they're breathing this stuff? In Kolkata, the answer alarmingly is about 50:50. The latest horrifying medical laboratory test results reveal that one of every two citizens sampled from old Calcutta have lung cancer, emphysema or other serious respiratory disease. Debilitating levels of fine particulates less than 10 microns in diameter plague many cities including New Delhi, Ludhiana and Ghaziabad. If you have read this far you may think you have heard it all at least once and more likely, many times. But no. In Firozabad, they have a severe concentration of particulates in the atmosphere, too. However, it's a city that has an overwhelming emphasis on glass and ceramics manufacturing. Do you wonder what the citizenry have been inhaling lots of tiny, jagged-edge particles of?

Developing a precise legal and regulatory basis for pinpointing egregious sources of pollution and where ecological breakdown is occurring is a very good idea. We believe this is happening to a certain extent in India. This approach should enable authorities to monitor, verify and pursue various offending commercial interests such that they can be brought into line or shut down. As it stands now, many firms with coal-powered boilers and what-not openly vent black coal dust whenever they think they can get away with it. That's despite the fact millions of Indians are becoming sick from breathing such poor quality air. In particular, an increasing number of children are developing chronic bronchial asthma from atmospheric and other pollution, especially in the big cities where garbage and raw sewage disposal also tends to be problematic. There is lots of carbon dioxide, sulfur and nitrous oxides emitted by heavy duty diesel fuel burners and carbon monoxide from two-wheelers. Diesel fuel-fired power generators cast a crimson brown overprint into the haze of other air pollution. We also have high concentrations of ozone at street level. Both vehicular exhaust and high levels of hydrogen sulfide emissions from industrial sources have been blamed for respiratory ailments and illnesses. Kolkata children especially are said to be afflicted with very high rates of coughing, wheezing, asthma, respiratory infection, bronchitis, small airway disease, emphysema and even lung cancer attributable to breathing the tan-colored shroud of haze over Kolkata that is said to be air. Doctors familiar with this situation in India are saying expect to live about three years less if you live your life in Kolkata. Let's not wait any longer for solar battery-powered rickshaws to be put in widespread use! Find a way to make it happen, that's our advice. Utilize compressed natural gas or liquefied petroleum gas. Get off the high-carbon fuels entirely.

If there can be happy news in all this it's that the people of Kolkata are now beginning to take back their city, the air they breathe, the water they drink. Many polluters have been knocked off the streets by authorities and angry people who want oxygen not the other junk. A turning point may have been reached in 2010, finally its happening. It's darkest before the dawn in Kolkata and oxygen concentrations are now moving up, yes that's up in many congested areas of this ancient and still very vulnerable city.

The jatropha shrub is now being seen in India as a hardy, reliable source for biodiesel to power trains, buses, trucks and more. So far, only about 8% of India's electricity is powered by clean, renewable energy sources, mostly from wind, biofuels and solid biomass. Apparently, among their aspirational goals is to increase this share to near 10% by end of 2010 and to 20% by 2020. Certainly, India has the potential to be huge in development and use of renewable sources of energy. Worldwide, India already is ranked fifth overall in wind-driven power generation capacity. Obviously, the sun is intense throughout most of India so solar power should be a go, too! And the first solar power facility has now started in India. Government mandates and tariff schemes are being put in place to help drive change and speed widespread use of solar energy. India hopes to have 20 gigawatts of solar power capacity available for use by early-on in the 2020's including solar thermal power facilities, standby solar power inverters, one million rooftops with solar panels installed and solar lights, lanterns or lamps for 20 million homes. Then there is a scale-up to perhaps 200 gigawatts of solar power by 2050. This solar energy plan sounds awesome to us and we truly hope it happens. Apparently, India is also starting down the path of a wholesale, 100-fold increase in their civilian nuclear power capability: They aim for approximately one-half a terawatt by 2050.

In many respects, the structure of India's laws, rules and regulations is already very good. However, the magnitude of its impact to effect change faster should be increased including decisive enforcement actions and judgments to make the desired eco-conscious values sink in with everyone.

    
     China: Both China and India have populations that will soon be in the 1.5 to two billion range, numbers that are far beyond their ecological survivability of perhaps 500 million people each. It is an unwelcome empirical observation that, all else being equal, in any country eco-risk increases commensurate with rising population density. As such, mitigation of pollution going forward is urgent and adaptation is an afterthought. Greenhouse gas emissions have doubled in a decade or so here. With absolute levels of emissions ratcheting ever-upwards, the half-life of sentient beings is likely to deteriorate towards being half-a-life. Change and advancement deep into green and clean territory cannot be forestalled or the situation will worsen in future. Do the world a favor and cancel your loser oilsands production, upgrading and heavy oil refining projects, too. We do not need them. That's our heartfelt advice to our dear friends in China. Get rid of the lampblack fuels first! This should be an ultra-high priority everywhere, not only in China.

Brown and black carbon "soot" in the upper atmosphere above these two countries is estimated to block almost 10% of sunlight that would otherwise reach the earth's surface in China and there is about a 7% dimming above India. China and India together account for somewhere in the range of one-quarter to one-third of the world's soot emissions, a form of brown or black carbon. Much of this soot emanates from burning coal, diesel fuel, wood and dung. Both of these countries are already heavily hooked on coal yet are apparently gearing up for dramatic expansion of their coal extraction and coal-fired power industries. We hope they do not tempt doomsday scenarios by continuing to start yet another coal plant operating every few days. Regrettably, in both China and India and probably in a few other countries too its pervasive, concentrated use is primarily responsible for the advent of "cancer villages". We also have had numerous metal poisoning incidents in China stemming from pollution associated with various heavy metal smelters.

Coal or other carbon-intensive sources still provides most energy in China. Decreasing coal's share of the rapidly-expanding demand for energy in China from an 80% share of a smaller energy demand-pie to firing "only" two-thirds of grid power by 2015 and about one-half by 2029 of an ever-larger pie is not going to prevent or slow large-scale ecological ruin. We can still expect significant contributions to global warming and alteration of climate; change-up of rainfall patterns; prevalence of sulfuric acid and nitric acid rain which already negatively-affects half of the many major metropolitan areas in China; an "unfunny" rise in sea level; the associated influx of saltwater including to rice paddy deltaic areas; an increase in acidity of fresh and marine water; and or loss of species and biodiversity.

Over the generation to come, imagine the emissions that will arise from one-quarter the population of the country, 300 million people, moving to the city. That's an average rate implied of about one million additional people per month demanding civic infrastructure including transportation, communications, housing, workplaces and various institutional supports. Urbanization on a massive scale, loss of wetlands, draining of peat lands, increase in grazing and agricultural areas, industrial expansion and other degrading land use changes, not to mention frenzied chemical and materials manufacture and a multitude of construction projects. Everything associated with all that activity, including entrails manifesting itself as any of a wide range of pollutants, may not peak in China until about 2035. Reforestation and afforestation efforts are likely to offset only a portion of the emissions generated.

Clearly, the magnitude of greenhouse gases emanating here from these causes generally will not be significantly diminished, offset or affected by mere improvements in the energy efficiency of industrial processes, power generation, transportation, home heating and so on. Reductions in energy intensity alone are not going to save the day because the gray expansion activities contemplated are far too vast. This situation very likely means greenhouse gas emissions in China will not peak until 2035 either. Worse yet, some consider their heat-trapping emissions peaking by 2035 to be their low carbon pathway of future development. We cannot help but notice the starkness of the contrast of this vision with that of mainstream scientists. According to the latter, to contain the specter of runaway climate change and unequivocally-avoid various doomsday scenarios, heat-trapping emissions worldwide must peak very soon now then decrease sharply to near zero within about one generation of time not peak one generation from now then flatten off, then slowly decline.

Perhaps more than 100 million additional vehicles will take to the streets in China in the decade ending in 2019. The distinct possibility there will ultimately be another one billion or so new vehicle drivers on planet Earth is a very unwelcome prospect only because of the added burden of pollution. Fuel subsidies facilitate an increased demand for transportation fuel. Again, there is no problem with driving more and more if emissions are near-zero. The advent of electric vehicles is a welcome development so long as the electric power grid feeding the recharging points for vehicles is clean energy sourced, not coal-fired generation. Ground-level ozone pollution is already so concentrated from burning of fossil fuels and other materials and substances that China has reduced crop yields in many areas as a consequence. Governments are starting to crack down in an attempt to roll-back pollution especially from atrocious diesel vehicles but the hour is very late. Traffic jams involving mostly large, heavy coal-carrying trucks may idle in lines up to an astounding 50 kilometers in length. Unsurprisingly, vehicular and other emissions are expected to escalate, perhaps dramatically. Further, as greater and greater numbers of people desire and expect a connection to the power grid, one would anticipate a significant escalation in demand for electricity. In the so-called business-as-usual scenario ceteris paribus this implies even-greater plumes of planet-warming gases being released into the air.

Many noxious-combustion large ships add significantly to the pollution burden in Indochina as does air traffic. We agree that, if say one-quarter of China's pollutants originate from producing goods for export from China, that half that amount, one-eighth of the total, are the responsibility of, and can therefore be attributed to, other countries. By extension, the same half-half split applies to imports into China, where China then assumes partial responsibility for those goods and services. Chinese officials have said about half the rise in greenhouse gases in their country is attributable to goods and services sold to other countries. It takes two trading nations to tango and the same concepts would seem to apply to every nation. If a border pollution or carbon tax adjustment scheme comes to be somewhere then half the levy should go to the importing country, half to the exporting country with zero rebate to the merchant who shipped the goods being sold.  

Pollution aerosols and smoke from China comprise an estimated 13% of overall emissions currently in the air in North America, arriving by way of the East Asian airstream. In China, there are now alarming levels of greenhouse gases, sulfur dioxides and particulates caused by rampant coal-fired electricity generation and hoards of dirty diesel fuel powered trucks. Acid rain afflicts one-third of China. Agricultural activities and land use changes contribute more emissions than that of any other country. The aerobic burning of various biomass is widespread. By some analysis, due to the prevalence of heat-trapping gases and black carbon in their atmosphere, the average temperature across China generally could rise by two degrees Celsius relative to pre-industrial times before 2020. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is reporting for the year 2007 that about two-thirds of the increase in carbon dioxide gas emissions worldwide came from China as did almost one-quarter of the absolute amount of carbon dioxide generated globally.

Numerous coal fires burn uncontrolled underground. Much heat-trapping methane gas also escapes directly from coal beds and coal mines into the air without being combusted. By 2010, the previous decade is expected to have resulted in an addition of at least 600 million tonnes of carbon emissions. Even though China already accounts for nearly half of world coal production, they are still planning to expand coal output by some 30% over 2008 levels by 2015. Much coal is also imported to southern China. Coal investing has been rising at 50% or more annually for several years now in China. As much as 80 gigawatts of additional coal-fired power capacity is to be added during 2009. One terawatt of coal-driven capacity could be available in China before 2020. Production of methanol fuel blends derived from coal, viewed in China as being a "green" fuel alternative, are being ramped up aggressively.

China is now the biggest producer and consumer of coal in the world, accounting for about one-quarter of worldwide coal use. Coal still powers about three-quarters of China's supply of electricity. The idea that that portion will be steadily-ratcheted back to say, only two-thirds of an expanding pie by 2030 is a terrible one. The transition to clean energy has to happen much, much faster than that to ensure our collective ecological survivability. Otherwise, by 2030, the world's atmosphere could be in for releases of as much as four billion metric tonnes of pure carbon equivalent from China's fossil fuel consumption alone. That amount, should it occur, would be nearly half the amount of carbon released worldwide into the air during 2007. An iron hand is really needed here and may be forthcoming; our ecological survivability is in jeopardy.

The external health and environmental costs associated with coal mining and use are not reflected in the way-too-low administered price set for coal. The real, all-in costs associated with its use keep mounting long after it is burned. Pneumoconiosis or "black lung disease" is rampant among coal workers and communities. Where does all that spent coal ash end up? Hopefully it does not seep into the water supply along with its chromium, selenium and mercury content. This industry clearly should be progressively and aggressively carbon-taxed into oblivion. Recently, China has begun moving to stop some of the dirtiest coal enterprises from operating. Also, energy-intensive, low technology, grimy businesses of various kinds are being deep-sixed by Chinese government authorities in an overt effort to better protect the environment.

China is the leading manufacturer on Earth, seemingly the workshop to the world. It has utilized or exported prodigious amounts of basic materials and items including cement, steel, aluminum, ceramics, glass and solar photovoltaic panels and cells. Rapid urbanization, industrialization and numerous exhaust-gushing vehicles add to China's pollution woes. About one-half million new trucks started driving on China's roads in 2007. Added to that is widespread puffing on tobacco products and cooking, especially in rural areas, using dirty biomass like dung, crop residues, wood and coal. The incidence of fluorosis remains high as a consequence of people breathing-in fluorine present in the fumes of burning coal. In China's more urban areas, haze, smoke and second hand smoke often lingers and forms a shroud over civil structures of the cities like a draping veil. Many of the world's most polluted cities have been reported for years to be in China. Breathing the air in these cities most days is equivalent to smoking perhaps two packs of cigarettes.

Taiyuan, Beijing, Yuncheng, Tangshan, Guangzhou, Foshan and Hong Kong have poor air most of the time including ghastly blankets of hazy photochemical smog and aerosol pollution. According to government sources in Hong Kong, air pollution near congested traffic areas there reached "life-threatening" levels during one of every eight days on average in 2009. Many knowledgeable people blame local, petroleum-based diesel vehicle fumes but clearly a significant amount of pollution is "ferried in" from Mainland China.

Needless to say, we have an epidemic of lung cancer in China. Tianjin, one of China's largest cities and Linfen, a city in China's coal mining heartland, teeter with ecological disaster. Tianjin, Shanghai and many east and southern coast cities also suffer from ash haze and ground level ozone pollution not to mention vulnerability to typhoons, flooding, rise of sea level and heat waves. Shanghai also subsides due to steadily increasing load above ground coupled with withdrawals of subsurface support mechanisms. We believe a big ecological turnaround will occur in Tianjin, Shanghai and other urban areas, too. There is determination, resources and brainpower behind an arduous, unrelenting effort to mitigate environmental issues, not to be victimized by same, before some eco-catastrophe strikes at the heart of their collective survivability.

Far inland to the west, Urumqi's air quality is sometimes abysmal. There have been serious transgressions by polluters in Jinzhong, Shangluo, Shiyan, Jiyuan, Qingyuan City, Chenzhou City and other cities, too, in particular, of incidents involving elevated lead concentrations that have been traced to lead smelters and lead-acid battery factories. Regulatory reprisals for the most egregious offenders was swift and certain including shutdown of various operations. Villages of Jiyuan judged to be too-far-gone from metallic contamination and emergency lead poisoning cases were ordered by the government to be evacuated. Iron tailings are wreaking havoc with people's health in Gaocun. Cadmium poisoning was the cause of health woes in Liuyang and Zhentou, and showed-up in unsafe levels in some children's jewelry play-things. Arsenic levels have also been problematic as ejections into the air from smokestack industry, as metal contaminants of drinking and irrigation water, and as yet-another source of chemical oxygen demand in rivers and canals.

The concentration of pollutants is off-the-charts in some areas. Recent examples include near Wugang and Tongdu where many children have become sick from lead poisoning that afflicted people who lived in the vicinity of lead-zinc mines, smelters and coal-fired power sources. Tianying is one of the largest lead pollution centers in China. Shaanxi Province is the major coal producing area of China. It also has significant metal and chemical industries. There have been many "cancer village" pollution-driven incidents in places including Changqing, Tianying, Shiniu, Guyun, Hou and Shangba. 

Birth defects in Shaanxi have been running at a whopping 18% which is anomalously-high even for China. Across the country, approximately 6% of all births have defects that are at least partly-attributable to environmental degradation, in particular and especially, from the various consequences of coal use. This is about double the rate of birth defects caused naturally, in the normal course. Coarse, fine and ultrafine particulate matter, black carbon sooty gunk, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, sulfate aerosols, formaldehyde and ozone impinges and/or sticks to everything in China's cities including the tiny air sacs in people's lungs. For every mass-unit of coal produced in China, there are about 2.5 mass-units of wastewater generated in the process. There is further a hideous amount of coal solid waste being generated with, ecologically-speaking, no safe place to be put. The token amounts of coal combustion products captured are merely being redistributed for other industrial uses, not sequestered. Environmentally-induced illness is already widespread affecting nearly one million people a year including cancer, heart disease and metal or radiation poisoning.  Many tens of millions of Chinese will become sick and succumb to lung or heart disease over the next generation from breathing the polluted air and/or inhaling smoke from burning tobacco products.

China landfills some 85% of its garbage often by long-hauling it out of metropolises with a vast colony of smelly trucks. Ongoing urbanization and emerging consumerism has had as a consequence the offloading of some 250 million tons of refuse for landfills every 365 days. People in many places are becoming sick from breathing the fumes from piles of garbage burning nearby such as in Likeng. By contrast, poor rural folks claim they do not produce much net solid waste at all. China has poorly-controlled electronic waste centers in Guiyu, Taizhou and more. A combustible chemical soup mixture of toxic elements and compounds may include lead, iron, cadmium, mercury, chromium, cobalt, barium, beryllium, chlorofluorocarbons, poly-vinyl chloride residues, flame retardant chemicals and more which may show up in groundwater and other places. China habitually participates in the sorry process of incinerating sometimes-imported toxin-laced refuse and other contaminated waste in order to produce electric energy and waste heat from the "fuel". We are not in favor of pell-mell burning of noxious or other materials, the sorry results of which are then back circulating in the air, soil and water. However, for example, we do think production of biochar from wood waste and agricultural leftovers in an anaerobic combustion process has potential as long as agricultural workers and other people do not burn it openly (aerobicly) instead of tilling or burying it. Often rural residents already have their own methane biogas facilities whereby organic ends and scrap material are processed into fuel for space heating or cooking.

According to government sources, about 10% of arable land in China contains unacceptably-high concentrations of lead. The soil across Guangdong Province and the Pearl River delta area generally contains very high levels of lead, cadmium, copper, manganese and mercury. Half the farmland in this area has too-high contamination from other toxic metals, too including nickel, zinc, indium and arsenic. The Pearl River delta area is so polluted few people eat fish from there or drink the water even if its boiled first. Fish deformities and other abnormalities are common. Plus there exists problematic concentrations of persistent organic pollutants. However, during the spring of 2009 as required by the Stockholm Convention, China has banned pesticides that contain persistent organic pollutants. So the incidence of newly-arising birth defects from this source has been eliminated overnight which is the kind of dramatic, action-oriented good news we like.

Widespread overuse of nitrogen fertilizers has led to accompanying evaporation of volatile compounds contained in the chemical fertilizer thereby increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Other consequences include acidification of soil, ground water and rainfall. Soil is being depleted, burnt, blown or washed away at a rate of 10 to 50 times faster than it is replenished. Sources estimate that nearly three-quarters of fertilizer and pesticides used in China end up in the water so it is little wonder we have algal blooms in some lakes. Ammonia nitrogen accumulates in catchment areas due to percolating groundwater and run-off at the surface from agricultural lands. Hypoxic zones form in water bodies as chemical oxygen demand intensifies. DDT, organophosphate and organo-phosphorous pesticide residues still show up in the food supply even though use of those pesticides is illegal.

Beyond more and more pollution, we also have less and less water availability. Furthermore, as average temperature rises, we have extra dollops of heat day and night. Potentially, over time, this all adds up to a nightmare scenario for rice farmers and the general population as, in such an environment, rice yields invariably will edge down progressively. Ecological risks materialize again. The future of the iron rice bowl becomes just another big worry for everyone at every point in time thereafter. Our grandchildren are not happy with us, with what we have wrought.

Many, if not most, maritime ecosystems are considered to be all but unsalvageable. Two-thirds or more of all waterways, surface water and groundwater are polluted. Fecal matter abounds from the epidemic of open defecation that hundreds of millions of people are still faced with doing. Diarrheal disease is commonplace as a result of exposure to contaminated water. Some government insiders say tributaries of virtually every river are effectively, ecologically dead as are the vast majority of lakes. The Bohai Sea, a dump for prodigious amounts of untreated wastewater, chemicals and fertilizer is close to being devoid of all life forms. The Yellow Sea has been stricken by algae due to high levels of nitrogen from untreated sewage, chemicals, fertilizer and other agricultural runoff. Upwards of half a billion people depend on the Yellow River in some way yet it remains seriously polluted and water levels have already been in decline. 

Most water across China is not drinkable. According to the central Chinese government, one-quarter of surface water is too foul to be used other than for industrial purposes or possibly to irrigate agricultural land. Lately however, aggressive measures were taken to ensure drinking water for about 100 million people was safe. It is now said by officials that 90% of county towns in China will have operating sewage and wastewater treatment facilities before 2011. If it happens, that would have to rate as an Olympian-effort fix of what were monstrous environmental problems. But that still leaves perhaps 200 million others drinking questionable water or water unfit for human consumption. Further, many millions of Chinese people encounter drinking water shortages every year, as do livestock. Northern rivers, the Haihe and Liaohe, were listed as being seriously contaminated by the Ministry of Environmental Protection. In northern China now there are said to be over 4.5 million people and nearly two million farm animals experiencing severe water-stress. The numbers are apt to swell as Himalayan glaciers continue to melt as a result of global warming thus, in the medium term, threatening water levels in great river basins such as the Yangtze and Yellow River watersheds. The Yangtze, Yellow and Pearl River deltas are very vulnerable to the implications of global warming. Some authorities believe the time is not far removed, perhaps by 2025, when except during flood episodes not a single river in China will have enough hydraulic force to reach the ocean.

Clearly, many parts of east coast China are vulnerable to devastation from sea level rise. According to the State Oceanic Administration, the rise in sea level affecting Hainan Province has been at a rate of approximately 10 meters per century for many years already. The prospect that this magnitude of rise will continue unabated for decades to come is all-too-real.

Over the last generation, temperatures in the water and air along China's coastal areas have risen by about one degree Celsius already. Ditto for the air temperature across much of Tibet including Lhasa as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has already endured nearly a two degree Celsius rise over half a century. In less than a generation, it has lost more than 5% of the areal extent of its massive glaciers. Some informed sources are now saying two-thirds of China's glaciers, including from Qinghai-Tibet Plateau alpine areas, will be gone by mid-century as the rate of melting is expected to accelerate.

Many grassland areas have deteriorated and been parched to the point of desertification. Soil erosion affects almost half the land area in China. This is despite the fact that net forestation rates have actually been positive overall in China. However, despite heroic tree planting and other efforts, desert areas continue to expand and now comprise over 20% of the total land in China. In addition, in many regions including on the Tibetan Plateau, vast grasslands have deteriorated into semi-arid areas due to poor farming practices, overgrazing, increased dryness and the effect of sandstorm-driven erosion. Desertification has been on the march in northern China for a long time and it encompasses many areas not just ones peripheral to the Gobi Desert. The Badain Jaran and Tengger Deserts are expanding, too. Approximately 150 million people have been disrupted, having to relocate to escape advancing parched, scorched Earth conditions. Inner Mongolia has been stricken by the worst drought and parched soil conditions in a century or more. Drought has also been reaching into central China such as near Qiangongping. Especially in the northern regions of China, massive yellow dust storms are frequent due to rampant desertification. Seasonal weather systems bring air-borne polluted clouds of dust and other particles from Mongolia and Inner Mongolia. Cities such as Lanzhou are regularly blanketed in dust and sand. The dust is carried far and wide in China and easily reaches Korea and Japan, too. Sand grains, dust, metal flakes, specks of soot and photochemical smog produce a near-continuous haze of one sort or another. Ozone and other pollutants from Asia, a lot likely originating in China, India, Vietnam and Indonesia, arrives and descends through the troposphere towards the surface of the west coast of North America after an apparent lag of about two to four weeks.

China is an amazing country. But we remain very concerned that China with its very high population density and very fast, mostly-coal fired growth, are flirting with ecological catastrophe and any ensuing possibly-global chain-reaction of biophysical repercussions and social consequences. This ecological horror flick is still filming but we believe the Chinese government has been making many moves recently to seriously address environmental problems. We are quite hopeful that China will achieve their goal of becoming an "ecological civilization". People generally realize China is starting their clean, green development rush from a position quite far "up the track" but they have definitely "kicked in" to turn their troubling situation around. A variety of energy conservation, pollution abatement and ecosystem restoration initiatives have been undertaken lately.

Implementing a hefty carbon tax in China that directly applies to the sources of greenhouse gases would be a gigantic achievement, and we understand it is being considered for the 2012 to 2015 timeframe. The modest-magnitude fuel tax in-place now is only a beginning and is limited in scope. As would be true anywhere in the world for the same basic reasons, invoking a comprehensive supply-side penalty initiates a long-awaited process of non-negotiable consequences for all the perpetrators of pollution (beyond some modest threshold level). Only in such a milieu are correct economic decisions and resource allocations made. This is critical in a world characterized by scarce resources and tight credit conditions. These decisions are ones that are purely in the public interest, in the name of progress, health and wellness of society, as opposed to being at least in part for the benefit of insiders, influence peddlers or entrenched commercial interests. If the latter holds, we really do not have free competition nor the invisible hand of the marketplace at work. Market forces may be distorted for long periods of time if there persists systematic biases or cheating such as "we can pollute and offload our waste out here for free, what a competitive advantage we have". Most children know before they reach the age of four that they, not someone else, is responsible for cleaning up their own mess. So how can corporations or other actors in our political economy pretend not to know this? Making money, cost-cutting and increasing efficiency is fine so long as it does not come packaged with yet-another incremental hit on our collective environmental survivability. Mother Nature has had one too many blows against her empire. If her empire collapses, we are all going down with it.

China is progressively increasing energy efficiency, albeit from modest levels, as outdated operators are shut down and the carbon intensity of other fuel-burning activity is gradually reduced. China may try to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by half per unit of output before 2020. They have imposed more stringent fuel economy standards on various vehicles. That seems to be doing a lot when there's lots to do. China aims to reduce major, noxious pollutants such as sulfur dioxide and various particulates by 10% below 2005 levels before 2011. The energy intensity of aggregate output is to be curtailed by 20% during the 2006 to 2010 time interval so energy use per unit of gross product is supposed to decrease by about 4% a year. Further reductions in this energy intensity measure are being targeted in the 2011 to 2020 time frame. Carbon dioxide per unit of national income is now slated to be reduced by 40% to 45% by 2020 versus the situation in 2005. This means they are already about half-ways to that particular goal.

China targets 15% of total energy use to come from renewable sources or nuclear energy by 2020 including about 8% from hydropower. It's exciting to hear they may be in a position to revise this objective to 20% from 15% thanks to booming progress on the ground which brings them past a 10% share of energy from renewables during 2010. To us, this is exciting to see crucial changes like this proceed apace, at a high rate of speed. In with the new and out with the old, we like that dynamic for every country about now. China already has one of the largest solar power industries anywhere. China is anticipated to become the world's biggest wind power in terms of installed capacity and generation of electrical energy from wind. They are already the biggest builder of wind turbines. China could have a massive 100 gigawatts of wind power facilities installed by 2020 which could then provide about 8% of their total energy requirements. Inner Mongolia has huge wind energy potential. Jiuquan is the city in far northwestern China where people are already at-work constructing the first 10 gigawatt wind power station in China, scheduled for completion by 2016. New, very high voltage, direct current transmission lines are being constructed, targeted for completion by 2015, to help bring more electric power to where it's needed. This massive smart grid will be capable of transforming and transmitting intermittent and base-load power from virtually any source of energy that connects to it.  

We encourage the acceleration of solar, geothermal and wind power developments. China's target is for renewable sources of energy to account for 40% of domestic energy use by 2050. Our advice: Don't think 2050 with a grand plan for renewable energy deployments and reducing absolute emissions, think 2019, 2029 or 2039. Happily, our information is they are now aiming far beyond their original short run goals for implementing wind and solar power projects which is promising news. To us, a trajectory where emissions increase by 40% or more a decade from now could bring us all to the brink of ecological disaster and runaway climate change. Given the obvious lack of eco-consciousness demonstrated by so many people and organizations in so many countries for so long, there is enough blame to cast far and wide on Earth such that no one can espouse an eye-for-an-eye mentality anymore. Or very-soon-now we will all be as blind as the proverbial lemmings going over a cliff seemingly are.

China was one of the first to ban logging widely and begin massive afforestation and reforestation. Looking back half a generation, China has seen a net gain of some 40 million hectares of forest during that time frame and they aim to add another 40 million hectares of net forest lands by 2020. The Green Wall of China undertaking to try to thwart creeping desertification affecting the country is a Jim Dandy. The magnitude of efforts by the people of China to date to improve the ecological state of their homeland has to be well-appreciated. To us, trees are the ones holding key-life insurance for us all and we believe these arduous actions will pay off big environmentally, especially in the decades beyond 2019 and 2029.

China was also among the first countries to recognize and pan cropland-based biofuels. However, now some food-based ethanol projects are proceeding apparently. So are ones involving jatropha shrubs and other sources of second generation cellulosic biofuels. China has also been processing wheat straw into pulp for paper production for over a century thus saving woodlands. China is a leader in waste cooking oil to biodiesel and biomass utilization including for application on agricultural lands as organic fertilizer. They do not want their soil to degrade or be contaminated any further with metallic and other toxic residues. They are focusing on increasing food quality and cropland productivity. This means the purity of water used in agriculture has to improve and available water be used more parsimoniously.

China was also one of the first jurisdictions to recognize the potential value of implementing quantitative taxes, tariffs, fees, fines, levies, shifts, etc to penalize polluters directly to force them into compliance, to clean up their act and to pay the full environmental costs of their acts or face being shut down. Many polluters and inefficient operators were shut down. Electronic biking was promoted heavily and there is apparently some 100 million e-bikes on the streets already, albeit mostly ones with archaic lead acid batteries. A Chinese company has mass-produced and is marketing the first plug-in hybrid car, powered in part by lithium ion batteries that are chargeable from a wall outlet. We also have many electric vehicles and an initial network of electric-charging stations in-place now to service batteries. Some 10% of residents in the country already have a solar-powered water heater of one kind or another. Futuristic light-emitting diode lights are produced abundantly in China now. Sizeable low-carbon cities such as Gongqing are slated for completion as early as 2013. China was also first at wide-scale population control, something this planet needs now in our view. That is a lot of important firsts for China. We think Beijing Olympics was a spectacular first, too. 

We think every country recognizes by now we are all in this pollution quandary together. The ecological survivability of life in every country is unlikely to improve in the aggregate unless and until reductions in absolute levels of various pollutants is achieved, the concentration of various pollutants decreases and concentration gradients turn negative. Merely aiming to overwhelm ecosystems at a slower rate in future is not the answer to improve the health of our biosphere. We need an extended, perhaps permanent, course of actions reversing out damage we have already done. The deleterious impacts cannot continue to accumulate from a myriad of sources of pollution. That's impossible for our physical, living Earth and its inhabitants. Rather, there has to be an unwinding of chaos from pollution, a cure for diseases inflicted or it's lights-out. When the cascade of pollution starts to unwind or the disease stops spreading, affecting more and more cells and tissue, only then over time can affected ecosystems and organisms have a chance to naturally resurrect, replenish, recuperate, rejuvenate and finally recover. Ecological survivability, health and well being is thereby enhanced.

The five Olympic rings symbolize our interconnected continents. Just as we should also all hope and aspire to be part of, or at least bear witness to, uplifting global-in-scope celebrations together, too, like Beijing, the 29th Olympiad, we must also together face squarely possible doom and gloom situations. This means brainstorming, cooperating, organizing and helping one another with advice, knowledge, resources and technologies. We need to ensure that given the constraints our finite Earth imposes, with continuing human population growth and no other planet available currently where we can move to, we do not all end up in the toaster one day. When children first learn about the uniqueness of life on Earth, the delicate balance that exists to enable our existence and sustain us, in short, how lucky we are to be here, it moves them greatly.

    
     United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar: United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have especially high externalities on a per capita basis for their societies to contend with as a result of industrialization, cement, construction, urbanization and use of more and more vehicles. These countries also face severe water stressors such that expensive, inefficient, energy intensive desalination plants may have to be constructed and relied upon more and more as time goes by. There are high levels of noxious nitrogen oxides in the air from dirty oil-fired power generation. Use of energy is excessive in everything from big, gas-guzzling vehicles to various luxuries such as air-conditioned beach sand and bus shelters. Plus there is the ever-present problem of where do you dump garbage that is not reused or recycled? Reckless dumping of oil sludge and releases of methane gas has added to their environmental woes. In Ajman, there's a colossal dump-and-burn site for pretty well any kind of waste you can imagine. Oil refineries near or in Um Al-Haiman have discharged gargantuan quantities of carcinogens over the years. Due to the concentrations of vile pollutants emanating from these industrial point sources, it has become clear that the associated air, water and soil contamination is making people who live not-far-away very sick. Marine environments nearby have been found to have way-too-high levels of bacteria and ammonia from untold years of dumping sewage into the sea. The Kuwaiti Sea also has very high levels of volatile organic compounds and heavy metals. As well, Kuwait's vast "oil lakes" pose an unresolved but apparently contained eco-threat.

UAE has been losing its natural defences against rising sea level and sea-going pollution. Mangrove forest, littoral and near shore sea grass environments have been severely compromised by various industrial and real estate development. Unfortunately, while the coastal plain is home to some 90% of the people, dwellings, buildings and infrastructure, it is also an area of no more than a meter or two above sea level. Abu Dhabi has little or no elevation at all with respect to current sea level. Modern, gleaming cities such as Dubayy and Abu Dhabi are something to behold and we do not want to see huge swathes obliterated by the forces of climate change now upon us. There are a lot of rolls of the dice we, including UAE, have to win if global warming and climate change are upon us forever-more. This applies "in spades" to UAE where the ocean saltwater at their doorstep looms as a wild card. In this region as elsewhere, a big transition away from fossil fuels has to occur quickly just so these people have a reasonable chance of ensuring their ecological survivability does not deteriorate any further. If you're already heavily-into desalination plants for your water supply, to us, that's another warning indicator light coming on, if you need another such alert, that you're living in an unreal, petroleum-based plastic world of some sort.  

UAE aims to reach 7% of all electric power in the country being driven by renewable sources of energy by 2020. They are also investing in nuclear energy in a big way to diversify and reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. Many people love Masdar City and UAE's emphasis on capturing solar energy. Innovative solar thermal projects are proceeding. For example, aluminum troughs are being deployed rather than glass mirrors to reflect and concentrate solar radiation. We do believe the potential exists for UAE to quickly develop into being a solar power. To us, that is fantastic news especially given the oil riches that exist in this country. Unlike the fossil fuel energy era which is nearing a conclusion forever more, solar power will always be with us. To oil, oilsands and coal salesmen, remember the sun's reserves are essentially infinite. Try and top that with your story.

Qatar has vast natural gas reserves, production and processing including liquefied natural gas for export. Qatar is a small but highly industrialized country that creates emissions at a rate about three times higher than United States on a per capita basis.  In particular, carbon dioxide releases into the atmosphere on a per person basis are said to be the highest of any nation. So clearly, instead of allowing flaring of gas, Qatar should be dictating tying of it into production or re-injecting it back from whence it came. Some of their heavy industry has had lead, cadmium and mercury contamination issues.

Qatar is a country characterized by low-elevation and being surrounded on three sides by saltwater. Their mangrove areas are vulnerable over time to the cumulative, combined, atrophic forces of land use downgrading, stripping and economic development, more and more pollution, and increases in average ambient temperature and sea level. These days, a center such as Ras Laffan Industrial City is really not in a desirable position geographically anymore.

    
 

 

                                                              Conclusion

One of the most overwhelming feelings each one of us has is when the view of our swirling white, green and blue Earth is seen against the black void backdrop of space. And we are all resident in the gravity well of Earth for the foreseeable future. We do not know of anyone who escaped to outer space never to return back to Earth.

Global warming, pollution, spread of disease, incidence of extreme weather events, sea level rise, deforestation, degradation of ecosystems and loss of habitat, species and biodiversity can play out over the years ahead in two ways. Either we will succeed in slowing the increase in all these phenomena, reversing it and lowering same to obviously safe and wholesome levels...or we will fail to do it or fail to do it fast enough to prevent catastrophe.

To us, this picture tells us we need stewardship of the Earth like never before. We have watched and listened as one jurisdiction and another tries valiantly to put the interests of the Earth over and above that of their jurisdiction. For most politicians, this is quite unnatural because they are generally expected to represent their local constituency and make decisions based on what's in the best interests of the people living in the district they represent. If they do not, they may become quite unpopular in a hurry there and be voted out of office next time, or otherwise lose their job.

So workers in multilateral institutions and other very global organizations may be forgiven for feeling lonely sometimes. Nationalism tends to dominate, shape and limit what takes place on Earth. Every jurisdiction seems to have its own flag, coat of arms, license plate, symbolic animal or plant and so on. Well, instead of a wild rogue, excuse us, that's wild rose on a flag, we propose a flag for the Earth. That's right, we are proposing the Earth have an official flag, too. We suggest it be that unforgettable, awe-inspiring picture of our Earth from space. We would like to be able to wave an Earth flag before it's too late, assuming it's not too late already.

The stark choices associated with our collective ecological survivability may be dramatized by invoking and adapting the following songs from the past (with copyrights © as indicated in the footnotes below):

It could be thus - entitled "It's Over", adapted from Roy Orbison: All the rainbows in the sky, start to leave and say goodbyeWe won't be seeing rainbows anymore. Setting suns before they fall; its up to us, that's all, that's all. But we'll feel lonely sunsets after all. Its over, its over, its over...ITS OVER!

Or it could be thus - entitled "Dream a Little Dream of Me", adapted from Mamma Cass. Stars shining bright above us, Night breezes seem to whisper to lovers, Birds singing in the Sycamore trees, Dream a little dream of we. daw dum-dah dum-dah daw-daw, da-da-dah dum da-dah da da-da-da  dah-da dah-da...(repeat, whistling instead)....

Here   comes  the  Sun   King, Here   comes  the  Sun   thing,  Everybody's laughing, Everybody's happy, Here's  real - ly  some thing, adapted from Sun King, the Beatles, BMI, 1967.

Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, the Sun shine in. Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, the Sun shine in. Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, oh let it shine, the Sun shine in, come on...now everybody just sing along... Let the sunshine, Get the sunshine in, Open up your heart, the Sun shine in...and let it shine on in!....adapted from Fifth Dimension, BMI, 1969.

 

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12 Investigations-4 Blackberry

 

 

 

 

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